Saturday, October 31, 2009

Iran - No deal on nukes


I almost have to admire the Mullahs for the way they're playing the West:
Iran insists on simultaneously exchanging its low-enriched uranium for nuclear fuel produced overseas, the state news agency said Friday, calling the demand a "red line" that will not be abandoned.
The condition undermines the basis of a UN-backed plan demanding Iran ship most of its uranium outside its borders to be further enriched in Russia and turned into fuel rods in France for use in a research reactor. That process could take up to a year. {...}

The news agency IRNA also said, however, that Iran has not yet given its answer to the UN-backed proposal to ship most of its enriched uranium overseas and wants to hold further negotiations on the plan.

The agency quoted an unidentified official as saying an Iranian response to the Western offer Thursday "did not contain a reply" to the UN-backed plan but simply expressed Iran's "positive attitude" and willingness to hold talks on the proposal.

Here's the game, and it's one that ought to be known to anyone with any knowledge of the Middle East: once the buyer makes an offer you like and thinks he has a deal,you up the price to see how much more you can squeeze out of him.

The original offer to the Iranians was an incredibly bad one for the West and an incredibly good one for the Mullahs.

First, Iran has no legal right to enrich uranium, and the UN Security Council said so in five successive Chapter VII resolutions
- Resolution 1696, adopted July 31, 2006 for example - that happened because the IAEA found Iran in noncompliance of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Iran signed. Cutting a deal with Iran on its illegally enriched uranium, especially since any suspension of future enrichment wasn't included just legitimized Iran's illegal program and ensured that its violations of the treaty on enrichment can continue.

Rest assured that other countries plotting to illegally join the nuclear club have noted this. Why should Iran or anybody else pay attention to any treaties or international obligations in the future?

Second, Iran gets an enrichment and technological bonus.

The deal calls for Iran's uranium to be enriched to 19.75%, just a hair under the 20% classification of weapons grade uranium.While uranium can be enriched to much higher levels, 20% is considered adequate and the deal means Iran gets to leapfrog over their current level of technology.

Even worse, the enriched uranium can be easily reconverted into uranium hexafluoride gas and quickly enriched to weapons grade..or the Mullahs could also use the nuclear fuel to chemically extract plutonium to produce their nuclear weapons.

Yes, this is the agreement President Obama, who's made a fetish of nuclear disarmament signed off on!

What the Iranians will do now is delay some more and see what additional concessions and gimmees they can extract from the West and how much more time they can buy. If Obama and the West sweeten the pot, well and good, If not, after more time passes, they will 'reluctantly' accept this bonanza and laugh themselves silly at the gullible ferenghi, who will walk away from the rug merchant's stall telling everyone what a great deal he made.

It's a win for Iran either way it goes.

Of course, the risk for the mullahs is that we could decide to change the rules of the game any to me we wanted to. Unfortunately, given their sense of whom they're dealing with, they apparently see it as a gamble well worth the risk.


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