Frida Ghitis
World Politics Review
When war broke out in the Caucuses between Russia and Georgia, the government of Israel immediately knew it had a difficult situation in its hands. The early phases of the conflict forced Israel to walk a difficult diplomatic path. Before long, Israelis realized that the new global reality reflected by the conflict meant an even more challenging environment in which to handle threats to their security. The rumblings of a new Cold War could well mean that cooperation between the West and Russia on matters crucial to Israel, particularly Iran, is coming to an end. Even worse, a possible new cycle of strategic competition, perhaps a new arms race, between Moscow and Washington could become a game-changer in the Middle East.
Israel has maintained a strong and friendly relationship with Georgia. At the same time, links with Moscow -- the traditional supporter of Israel's enemies during the Cold War -- have also improved markedly over the years. The new conflict placed Israel in a position where it might face a choice between betraying an old friend and antagonizing a country -- Russia -- with the ability to bolster Israel's most dangerous enemies.
Diplomats appeared to find their way through the thorny path between the two nations. In the end, however, larger geopolitical forces outside Israel's control could easily mean that the Russo-Georgian war is the first step in a global realignment that harms Israel's interests.
On Wednesday, the U.S. and Poland signed an agreement to place a new American missile defense system on Polish soil, a deal that is bitterly opposed by the Russians. Negotiations had started more than a year ago, but a final deal was only reached after Russia invaded Georgia. The signing at this time of high tensions between the Russians and NATO means that Russia could choose to respond by placing missiles on the soil of a nation unfriendly to NATO.
This might have little to do with Israel, except that the recipient of new Russian missiles could well be Syria, a country with which is Israel is still technically in a state of war. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is likely to discuss this possibility during a scheduled visit to Moscow this week.
For Israel, the growing ramifications of the war between Georgia and Russia mean that simply dealing with the two parties is not enough to avoid the war's impact.
Late in 2007, Israeli government strategists predicted a conflict between Tbilisi and Moscow was likely. As a result, the Israeli government sharply reduced arms sales to Georgia, foregoing lucrative contracts, including one for Israel's Merkava tanks. Tbilisi has been a client of private Israeli corporations selling weapons and know-how. Still, Israeli companies need Defense Ministry permission for their sales. Most sales had already stopped when the war began.
Once the fighting started, Israel's Foreign Ministry told the Ministry of Defense it should suspend all private arms sales to Georgia. At the same time, the Foreign Ministry made a strong statement in support of Georgia's territorial integrity.
A diplomatic crisis might have been averted, but the continuing acrimony between Russia and the West is making Israeli diplomatic moves largely irrelevant. If Russia and the West emerge from this crisis as security rivals, rather than partners, Israel could become one of the main victims of the war in the Caucuses.
While Iran has been openly defying Israel and predicting its destruction, the international community has largely agreed that Iran's nuclear program represents a threat to the entire world, not just to Israel. Israel's most fervent hope is that diplomatic efforts will succeed in deterring Iran, and that the Iran problem will not become Israel's problem.
The current effort to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons relies on international sanctions, and sanctions are all but meaningless without Russian help. Efforts to give economic sanctions the imprimatur of the entire international community would fail without Russian cooperation, since Russia's veto power in the United Nations Security Council allows it to block U.N. resolutions. And economic sanctions in which Russia does not participate would lose effectiveness.
The reality, however, is that Russia has been a reluctant partner at best on international efforts to stop Iran's nuclear program. Russians are helping build one of Iran's principal nuclear facilities in Bushehr, and they have worked to stall U.N. efforts. Clearly, Russia has mixed feelings about Iran.
Russia and Iran have a long history of animosity and enmity. The two countries are not ideological or historical allies. But if they see a common enemy in the U.S. and the West, they would be more inclined to act together.
The signs so far are mixed. According to Israeli media reports, Russian Prime Minister Putin asked to speak with Israeli President Shimon Peres while the two were in Beijing for the Olympic Games. Their conversation took place after the conflict in Georgia had already started. Putin reportedly told Peres that, "I am not indifferent to Israel's concerns over a nuclear-armed Iran. There should be no doubt that Russia does not want a nuclear Iran."
Israel, however, faces other threats besides Iran. And there, too, Russia could create problems. Russia is now said to be considering providing more advanced weapons to another one of Washington's and Israel's enemies, Syria. One possibility is offering Syria its S-300 air defense system and its nuclear-capable Iskander missile.
This scenario looks very much like the Cold War theater in which Washington supported Israel and Moscow armed, trained and advised Israel's enemies. This is a nightmare scenario for Israel, and one that could effectively destroy the prospects for peace in the Middle East.
The more optimistic view is that once the Georgia conflict finally settles, Russia and the West will come to see they do have common interests. There is reason to believe that Russia is sincere when it says it does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. After all, the Islamic Republic could increase instability at Russia's doorstep and across its threshold, stirring up trouble with Russia's Muslim minorities. If it is true that Russia wants to stop Iran, then it is precisely the Iran issue that could provide Russia and the West a road to reconciliation.
The ultimate impact of this conflict on Israeli security is largely out of Israel's hands. As Israelis try to learn the lessons from a battered Georgia, one of the most often repeated analyses
is that small countries -- such as Georgia and Israel -- cannot count on their friends coming to their rescue; they must stand ready to defend themselves.
Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor.
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