Once again a lot of people think that
Secretary of State John Kerry is on the verge of making a breakthrough
toward peace. The problem is that these people believe that the
contenders were born yesterday, that they have no constraints
whatsoever.
The Palestinian Authority
(PA) has no intention of making peace. It only wants to get concessions
and blame Israel for an absence of peace. It knows that the Obama
Administration will never punish it if it balks but probably will only
offer it more.
The PA doesn’t want to
make peace since any actual concessions will make it appear to be a
traitor and will bring a counter-offensive from Hamas. Since it doesn’t
even represent the territory it claims—it has no power over the Gaza
Strip and has no prospect of getting any—the PA cannot make any binding
commitment at all. And it is watching as the battle for Syria is going
on next door. That would give it a radical neighbor—the United States is
supporting it—which will deem a peace agreement as null and void.
Every PA negotiator knows well that he isn’t supposed to succeed. It is only Kerry who doesn’t know this.
As
for Israel, the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows
that it cannot depend on the United States. For example, the key issue
is supposedly the precondition of what the borders will be. Now think
this one through:
The PA demands and must
demand that the 1967 lines would be the state borders. BUT the United
States on two occasions, in the George Bush administration and in later
2010—told Israel that it could keep “settlement blocs,” that is large
settlements along the borders. It is thus impossible that Netanyahu
would agree to accept the loss of that U.S. commitment.
Why
should he not get something for nothing, show that the president’s past
commitment was worthless, and simultaneously know that any time the PA
wants more that Obama will give it to them?
And
of course his coalition—even his own party—won’t agree. Does Israel so
desperately need “peace” that it must be purchased at its reduced
security?
Meanwhile what is the
United States doing for Israel on Egypt (still refusing recognizing the
military regime in Egypt), Lebanon (not keeping the 2006 commitment to
combat Hizballah); Syria (pushing weapons on Islamists which Israel will
have to confront in future); the Gaza Strip (having no policy to bring
down Hamas); Iran (no serious plan for denying nuclear weapons), and
Turkey (letting Ankara ignore the supposed détente even though it was
promised by Obama himself)?
And that’s not even mentioning the demand for millions of Palestinian Arabs to “return” to Israel or Jerusalem?
There
is nothing for Israel in this except the promise of peace, which will
evaporate as ever single Obama promise has also done.
So the point is this:
The PA will keep doing stalling tactics and come up with new preconditions that it hopes Israel will not meet.
Israel will keep giving minor concessions and engaging in stalling tactics to hope that Kerry finds something useful to do.
Kerry will keep rotating between shuttle diplomacy and his yacht until the media has tired of this game. The Ring of Kerry in Ireland is one of the most beautiful places in the world. Now the Middle East has its own.
All leaks, spins, false claims, and ploys will go nowhere.
Advice: Don’t read about the latest double-talk and impending supposed breakthroughs in the media. Look at underlying interests; not imaginative headlines.
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