The knot is a big one, pulled
tight, and progress in untangling it is, not surprisingly, slow.
But I want to begin today with
a thought I expressed yesterday: that, in spite of the direction of
Kerry's announcement and subsequent news reports, it's not a "done deal" with
everything in place for negotiations to begin. I referred yesterday to
Kerry's wording, which had a subtly tentative feeling to it.
Today I'm finding more evidence of
this. Khaled Abu Toameh, in today's JPost (and I will come to
look at this more extensively), quotes Abbas' spokesman Nabil Abu Rudaineh, who
said on Friday, "...progress has been achieved, paving the way for agreement on
the principles that allow for the resumption of the negotiations."
That, in and of itself, is a
tentative statement. "progress has been achieved." That's means,
"we're getting there," not "we've arrived."
But there's more. Abu
Rudaineh also said, more explicitly, "certain details still require
finding a solution for them." (Emphasis added)
~~~~~~~~~~
Then there's the opinion of Danny
Dayon, former head of the Council of Jewish Communities in Judea, Samaria and
Gaza, also cited in the JPost :
Dayan "expressed doubts that any
actual negotiations will take place, tweeting, 'My impression is that
there is no agreement to resume substantive talks. Only to
face-save Kerry. Talks about the talks will continue in
[Washington] D.C.'" (Emphasis added)
Dayon may be on to
something.
~~~~~~~~~~
One knowledgeable
not-for-attribution source I go to regularly said this today: "Kerry is an
idiot We have to be honest about this. Everyone knows he's an
idiot. He wants to achieve the Nobel Prize by bringing peace, and he's
stupid enough to think it can happen. Nothing is happening.
"Why are they going to Washington?
Because Kerry is tired of coming to the Middle East."
~~~~~~~~~~
And so we must proceed with utmost
caution, assessing all possible ramifications, monitoring all statements, and
preparing appropriate reactions -- but without the "over-the-top" panic
that it was easy to feel on first hearing of Kerry's announcement.
~~~~~~~~~~
One thing that continues to
perturb me is the conflict in statements by different members of the
Israeli government. Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, for example,
declared that:
"We arrive at the negotiations
with clean hands...We insisted upon entering negotiations without preconditions,
which included Palestinian demands for a declaration regarding 1967 lines,
a freeze of construction and a release of prisoners."
While Minister Yuval Steinitz told
Israel Radio:
"There will be some release of
prisoners,. I don't want to give numbers but there will be heavyweight
prisoners who have been in jail for dozens of years." "Heavyweight" means
with Jewish blood on their hands.
"It will not be simple, but we
will make that gesture."
So rationalize it as you will,
calling the prisoner release a "gesture" rather than accession to a
pre-condition -- the two positions are not truly consistent.
~~~~~~~~~~
But what really has had me crazy
is trying to figure out what Kerry said or did that pushed Abbas to agree to
come to the table (if, in the end, he did agree).
My take, suggested yesterday, is
that Kerry gave reassurances to Abbas -- whether in writing or not -- that
negotiations would be based on the '67 line. Reassurances that were
sufficient for Abbas to move ahead, but permitted Netanyahu and ministers
of his government deniability, since they agreed to nothing. The question here,
of course, is what happens when (and if) they really sit down to
negotiate.
A savvy individual, who has his
ear to the ground in the Knesset, suggested something slightly more modest that
might have come from Kerry, such as, "You know very well that the US government
position is for negotiations based on the '67 line. I cannot deliver
a commitment to this from Netanyahu but give you my word that we will do
everything in our power to move negotiations in that direction once they
start."
A second source has
confirmed this. And PLO and Fatah officials speaking to Khaled Abu
Toameh said that Abbas told them the Kerry refused to provide in writing
guarantees that Israel would accept PA demands. (This is important
information!)
~~~~~~~~~~
The Khaled Abu Toameh
article actually complicates the issue.
For he reports that both PLO and
Fatah officials said they knew nothing about what Kerry had offered Abbas to
bring him back to the table and were critical of the PA willingness to go
along. And he quotes Hassan Khraisheh, deputy speaker of the
Palestinian Legislative Council, who said Abbas was committing "political
suicide."
Exactly. Abbas, without
legitimacy and hated by his own people, is normally frightened to
move without Fatah and PLO backing. And so now?
We have a clue as to what happened
with the Abu Toameh article. Nabil Amr, a senior Fatah official, is quoted
as saying, "The Palestinian leadership, which excels in hard-line
talk...eventually succumbs to the fait accompli."
My source above, who identified
Kerry as "an idiot," says he knew this was going to happen because two months
ago Abbas had said, "We cannot disappoint Kerry and Obama." Of course,
threats by Kerry and Obama about cutting off US aid would have helped Abbas come
to this conclusion.
And what of the greatly valued
Arab honor that I spoke about yesterday? This, we can assume, was
covered by the PA statements that Israel had agreed to the '67 lines and all the
rest.
Rather than bucking Kerry further,
Abbas has decided on doing that "face-save" for Kerry in the short run. In
the end, the "negotiations," if they do occur, will come to little. Abbas
will find a way to sabotage them.
~~~~~~~~~~
I am reverting now to "savta"
mode, as two of my granddaughters are due imminently. But I do want to return to
examine Netanyahu's statement yesterday in more detail. Whether anything
comes of negotiations or not, his stated position bears close
scrutiny.
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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