Palestinians, Israelis see Obama differently

PATRICK MARTIN
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081106.ELECTMIDEAST06/TPStory/TPInternational/Africa/#HE

JERUSALEM -- Admiration for U.S. president-elect Barack Obama extended across much of the Middle East yesterday with Palestinians in particular holding out hope he would be the answer to their prayers.

However, Palestinian pollster Jamil Rabah cautioned against reading too much into such wide-eyed support. "They like this guy because he's black, because he's not the typical blue-eyed white Westerner. But they don't know anything about what he stands for. "They're investing so much in what they think he promises, because he's not George Bush," Mr. Rabah said. "They see in him what they want to see, but they're setting themselves up for disappointment."

If some Palestinians were reading too much good into the president-elect, most Israelis were seeing a lot that was bad.
"The average Israeli is very suspicious of Obama," explained veteran Israeli pollster Rafi Smith. "If the U.S. election had been held in Israel, John McCain would have won in a landslide."

It hasn't taken much to fuel people's concerns, he said. "Even his middle name, 'Hussein,' convinces people he is less pro-Israeli and more close to the Arabs, to Muslims."

How might an Obama presidency affect the fortunes of Israeli politicians who are facing their own election in February?

There are two possible beneficiaries, Mr. Smith said. "If the 'time for change' attitude is strong, then Tzipi Livni stands to gain." The Israeli foreign minister was recently elected leader of the Kadima party on a platform of exactly that kind of change.

The other politician who might benefit, however, is Likud leader and former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said Mr. Smith. "If Israelis perceive president Obama as not a strong supporter of Israel, and if they see the [Democrat-controlled] Congress the same way, then Bibi can use that to his advantage. He can argue it's exactly the time for a strongman prime minister like him."

Whether Israelis opt for a strongman or an agent of change "will depend on whether Israelis are more or less afraid of Obama," Mr. Smith concluded.

Barry Rubin, director of research at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, north of Tel Aviv, said it's not the relationship between the United States and Israel that he's fearful of. "That relationship will hold," he said. "But I'm extremely worried about the unintended consequences of what might be Obama's approach to the region."

The modern Middle East breaks down into two blocs, Mr. Rubin believes - the Islamists, led or inspired by Iran, and the pro-Western governments.

"My concern is that the Islamists will see Obama as weak, and feel able to do what they want. Iran won't be afraid to develop nuclear weapons, Hezbollah won't be afraid to attack Israel and Hamas will be the same."

In that event, he said, "I worry that pro-Western Arab leaders won't feel they're getting the support they need from Washington and that, then, they'll try to appease Iran. In the end, Islamists everywhere will feel bolder."

Rami Khouri, director of the Issam Fares Institute at the American University in Beirut, draws a very different conclusion.

"The Islamists have fed off stupid U.S. policies in this region," he said. "If the new American president were to try a more intelligent approach - one of engagement rather than trying to intimidate - the U.S. would cease to be a target of scorn and the Islamists would lose support." It's the prospect of Mr. Obama adopting just such an approach that has so many people in the region feeling excited, he said.

Opportunities to try out a new approach won't take long to materialize. Along with a U.S. scaling-down of its forces in Iraq, and the widespread concern about a nuclear-armed Iran, the peace processes between Israel and Syria and between Israel and the Palestinians are crying out for U.S. attention.

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http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=116161&d=7&m=11&y=2008


The Middle East's Leading English Language Daily

Friday 7 November 2008 (10 Dhul Qa`dah 1429)


Editorial: Don't pin much hope on Obama

Having welcomed the historic victory of Barack Obama in the US presidential election, let us begin by shedding too much expectations of him. They are likely to be dashed — generating a great deal of pain and resentment into the bargain.

There are some quite extraordinary notions circulating about what sort of president he will be, particularly in this part of the world — for example, that he is going to turn years of American Middle East policy on its head. This is a willful, and ultimately destructive, fantasy.

Despite attempts by his more extreme opponents during the campaign to paint him as un-American, President Obama is not going to run the White House in the interests of anyone other than the American people. Nor should his victory be seen as a defeat or comeuppance for the US, although that is how it is being presented in some corners of the world. That is to ignore that a majority of Americans, fed up with the past and seeing him as the personification of the American dream, voted enthusiastically for him. He is, by virtue of his election, everything that America stands for. He is Uncle Sam, the all-American kid, The Chief.

As president, Barack Obama is going to defend American interests first, not those of some other nation. There will be attempts at dialogue, even at finding peace in the Middle East, but no one should imagine that they would be radical or pursued with all his energy and determination. Iraq is one thing — and even then there can be no certainty that every last American troop will be pulled out from there in 16 months. But a president whose deputy is Joe Biden, a man who last year said that Israel is "the single greatest strength America has in the Middle East" and who is proud to call himself a Zionist, is not going to turn his back on the Israelis. His appointment of Rahm Emanual as his chief of staff makes that doubly certain. Emanual is an even more convinced Zionist (his father was a member of the Zionist terror organization Irgun), not to mention a prominent figure in the US Jewish lobby. Far from challenging Israel, the new team may turn out to be as pro-Israeli as the one it is replacing.

In fact, President Obama is going to have to concentrate on domestic issues. He has to deal with recession, poverty, unemployment, healthcare, the environment and two wars — hardly the most auspicious beginning for a new president. His room for maneuver is limited. The monumental tasks of putting the country back on its feet again are testimony to mismanagement of unprecedented magnitude during the Bush era. Never before has the US been at war and in recession at the same time. Obama and his team may well reflect that winning the election was the easy bit. His clarion calls for change has convinced an eager world that he will change the US and change its foreign policies. That remains to be seen. If only because he is the first African-American president, he will want to carry as wide a section of American public opinion with him as possible in his decisions. If he wants a second term, he is going to be very cautious at best. More likely, he will champion America's interests with iron-fisted determination. Whichever, the wild expectations have to go. In any event, one man cannot solve all the world's problems, however well intentioned he may be.

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http://www.web-view.net/Show/0XDB82BE4523A16440AC3A9313D4D0C820BA2505BCBC5FC9530A2BFDDBE467C819.htm

Livni Warns Obama - Politely
by Hana Levi Julian

Nov 7 '08, Cheshvan 9, 5769

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has issued her first warning – albeit politely – to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, just two days after he made history by becoming the first black American to be elected to the White House.

Livni expressed her opposition to Obama's stated willingness to dialogue with Iran in an interview on Voice of Israel government radio Thursday morning.

"We live in a neighborhood in which sometimes dialogue – in a situation where you have brought sanctions, and you then shift to dialogue – is liable to be interpreted as weakness," she explained.

Livni maintained a cordial tone regarding the new administration and noted that "Obama's bottom line on the Iranian issue is very clear. America won't accept a nuclear Iran." However, she also made it clear that Israel's bottom line would not change. When the interviewer asked her if she supported any American dialogue with the Islamic Republic, Livni replied flatly, "The answer is no."

The Foreign Minister said she did not expect any "dramatic" difference between the outgoing Bush administration and that of Obama, noting that "The outgoing administration also had people who supported dialogue."

She noted that the difference between the two had to do with style: "There is a slightly different attitude between the president-elect and the outgoing president, with regards to how the world relates to extremism in the area. There are those who think that [Ameri has to be aggressive, and there are those who think that there has to be dialogue. Obama falls into the second group."

She added that "Israel is working for sanctions against Iran, and not transmitting a message of weakness."

Israel is convinced that the Islamic Republic is working to complete an atomic weapon of mass destruction. Iran has defied all attempts by the international community to halt its uranium enrichment program, despite several rounds of increasingly severe sanctions imposed on the country.

Although Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has denied his country will use the nuclear technology for anything other than peaceful, domestic purposes, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been blocked from attempts to ascertain exactly what kind of activities are taking place in some of the Iranian atomic energy sites. Various intelligence reports have indicated that Iranian scientists have been working on nuclear weapons development.