Yoram Ettinger, Ma'ariv, Nov. 12, 2008
Prime Minister Olmert contends that disengagement from Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem would secure the Jewish majority in Israel's capital. The Prime Minister is mistaken and misleading! His world view is based on erroneous assumptions and – if implemented - would doom the city demographically and security-wise. Each call for a retreat from Arab neighborhoods has enticed larger Arab immigration into the shrinking municipal lines of Jerusalem. Over 50,000 Arabs, bearing Israeli ID cards, who moved from Jerusalem to neighboring villages, have returned to the city since the initiation of Israeli calls for "Separation," "Fence" and "Wall." They have been joined by scores of thousands of illegal Arab immigrants, who have relocated to Jerusalem's city limit, in order to escape the ruthless PA regime. The more one shrinks the area of Jerusalem, the more one encourages Arab immigration to Jerusalem and the more one undermines Jewish demography there.
Jerusalem's Jewish majority is threatened by Arab immigration (0.4% annual) and Jewish emigration (0.7% annually) and not by natural increase. In fact, the Bennett Zimmerman-led "American-Israel Demographic Research Group" has documented a tailwind to Jewish natural increase, while Arab natural increase in Jerusalem and west of the Jordan River has taken a steep dive. Jewish and Arab fertility rates (number of births per woman) have converged (3.9 births) for the first time since 1948, compared with a 4.5 Arab fertility rate in 2004. Arab birth rate is approaching, rapidly, the Jewish secular birth rate, as a result of a very successful integration – by the Arabs – into Israel's infrastructures of education, health, employment, commerce, banking, culture, sports and politics. The rise of Arab life expectancy is producing an older Arab society (more Arabs per 1,000 are in their 60s, 70s and 80s), while the Jewish society is growing younger, due to a substantial rise in the number of annual Jewish births, especially among secular Jews (mostly the Olim/immigrants from the former USSR).
In order to leverage the Jewish demographic momentum, thus expanding Jewish majority, one must neutralize the trigger for Arab immigration (calls for retreat from Arab neighborhoods) and the trigger for Jewish emigration (employment and housing crisis).
Contrary to the opinion of Prime Minister Olmert – who considers Jerusalem's Arab neighborhoods a demographic liability – Jerusalem's Arab neighborhoods actually constitute a geographic asset. They are located at the heart of major land reserves, which are critical to the resolution of Jerusalem's employment and housing crisis. Land reserves constitute the prerequisite for dramatically upgraded infrastructures of transportation, telecommunications, electricity, industries, education and housing, which are essential for an expanded employment base and more affordable housing. Entrepreneurs, capital, educators and researchers would be enticed into Jerusalem by a modern airport, high-speed train and freeways to Jerusalem from the coastal plain, a wide loop around the city, traditional and high-tech parks and lower-cost land for housing. A dramatic improvement of infrastructures cannot be accommodated – topographically and geographically – in downtown Jerusalem or west of the city. It can be easily accommodated by the sparsely-populated area east of the city all the way to the Dead Sea and Herodion, Gush Etzion in the south and Modi'in in the northeast. While such a dramatic expansion would entail the inclusion of up to one hundred thousand Arabs, it would simultaneously yield an all time high annual Jewish immigration along with upgraded Arab standard of living, which would produce faster decline in Arab fertility.
On the other hand, disengagement from Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem would disengage the city from substantial land reserves, would escalate Jewish emigration from Jerusalem, would doom Jerusalem to the fate of Sderot and Western Negev Kibbutzim (which experience a post-disengagement security nightmare) and would pose the most lethal demographic and security threat to Jerusalem since 1967!
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