Doc's Talk: "Political Confusion, Voter Angst"

Friday, February 06, 2009

"Political Confusion, Voter Angst"

These are tough times for serious voters on the right who are trying to decide how to cast their votes. The difficulty is a function of what's going on in the country and of the electoral system under which we operate (which, everyone agrees, needs reform, but which is never quite reformed). The goal of the first order is to keep Tzipi Livni from becoming prime minister. This is understood.

Evelyn Gordon, in a piece in the Post, calls the decision regarding whether to vote for Livni a "no brainer" (something that can be decided, figuratively, without even having to use your brain).

When asked by Haaretz last week to name her accomplishments, the first thing Livni said was that "I enabled the disengagement, thanks to the Livni compromise...I led the disengagement legislation..."

And then she said, "I created the idea of a diplomatic exit [from the Second Lebanon War]... I formulated [Security Council] Resolution 1701."

This is rather stunning, for she named two colossal failures. Never mind that she was involved in these matters (which is serious enough), if she cannot perceive now that they are not actions to be proud of and is eager to tout them as successes, there is really, really a problem in her thinking.

And so, run, don't walk, away from Kadima. Why anyone would still want to vote for her is beyond my capacity to comprehend. But there are still many who, at least according to the polls, do. Which is part of the problem. In the polls Kadima is second, not that many mandates (seats) behind Likud.

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Where, then, do right wing voters cast their votes? I'm speaking of Zionists -- in the main, but not exclusively, religious nationalists -- who understand our connection to the land and are eager for us to hold our heads up high as Israelis and reclaim our entitlements.

A logical place for many of us to cast our votes is National Union (Ihud Leumi), headed now by Ya'akov (Ketzelah) Katz, war hero and head of Beit El institutions, who is greatly loved and respected. When he said, on assuming the party position, “We will raise the banner of the Land of Israel, which has been sullied in recent years," it was possible to believe him. On this list, as well, are other individuals with strong Jewish pride and integrity.

No one imagines that National Union will win the election. The goal is to provide a solid nationalist presence in the Knesset, and, hopefully, in the government, if Likud invites this group into the coalition.

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But wait! Likud is not doing well in the polls. Previously it was further ahead of Kadima; now the gap has narrowed -- according to some polls Likud is only three mandates ahead of Kadima. This is partly because some voters are looking to National Union, or to Mafdal (the old National Religious Party, now known as the Jewish Home -- HaBayit HaYehudi).

But far more so because, as I wrote yesterday, of Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beitenu (Israel is our Home) party, which has drawn some Likud supporters. Lieberman's meteoric rise in popularity was unexpected. He is now attracting not only his fellow Russian immigrants, but native Israelis, as he assumes a very tough line with regard to Israeli Arabs, whom he charges with frequently manifesting disloyalty to the State. His position on a Palestinian state is vague, as previously he advanced ideas of land trade, but now says he is opposed.

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What must be faced then is that a vote for one of the smaller nationalist parties might mean that Likud doesn't win. And this would be counterproductive to all nationalist goals.

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But wait! There are nationalists who would vote for Likud to prevent Livni from being victorious who become slightly apoplectic at the thought of Barak as Defense Minister in the new government. And so the question is asked about how serious Netanyahu is in this regard.

I heard the argument, just today, that the way to keep Barak from being awarded this position is to vote for Likud. There is a potential logic to this. Likud is not expected to win more than about 30 seats. But a governing coalition requires a minimum of 61. Likud will have to negotiate with other parties to form that coalition, and such negotiations require striking deals, and making attractive offers. In theory, the stronger Likud is, relative to the other parties that would join the coalition, the less Likud would be required to offer.

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But, first, is it clear up front that Likud would need Labor in order to secure a coalition -- might it not be secured simply by including the parties to the right, including Yisrael Beitenu and Shas? That's what the numbers suggest may be possible. Is the need to form a governing coalition Netanyahu's only (or real) motivation for including Labor? It seems increasingly clear that the answer to this is no, that he is anticipating the formation of a unity government of sorts -- that he wishes to be centrist and broad-based.

And then the question is, why? The only possible rational that occurs to me is Netanyahu's desire to stop or interfere with Iran's nuclear development, which would require a broad national consensus.

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What's unsettling is that a party that wishes to appeal to all segments of the population and is too inclusive ends up becoming stalemated internally. It becomes difficult to know what such a party truly stands for. And what I'm sensing now is a tremendous desire on the part of many to find some clarity.

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Imponderables... Unknowns... Speculations...

Dear friends, it may seem as if I have just led you in circles, but this is not the case: I've merely painted a bare bones picture of what is happening here politically at the moment.

There are a dozen other questions that might be asked, such as: If Kadima wins the election would Livni be able to form a coalition? What are the demands of Yisrael Beitenu and Shas? Will Labor, at the end of the day, be willing to join a coalition that contains Yisrael Beitenu, which, because of its strength, would certainly be included in a Likud-led coalition? (A majority of Labor MKs are opposed to sitting with Lieberman but Barak is not ruling it out.)

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A Likud activist close to the center of things, whom I queried today about Labor being included in a Likud coalition, responded thus:

The question is, what would you rather have, a coalition of Kadima and Labor, or a Likud-led coalition that includes Labor and maybe Kadima (Kadima??). Unpalatable, but maybe realistic.

By next Tuesday morning, each voter will have to make a decision for him or herself.

What is striking is that polls have indicated an unusually large percentage (approximately 20%) of the voters still undecided as of this late date. Many are struggling to find the answers that are right for them.

The import for our nation is enormous.

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After earlier announcing that a truce settlement had been achieved, the Hamas delegation today left Cairo as the cease-fire talks collapsed; they are expected to return in a matter of days. Amos Gilad is now going to Egypt to receive a report.

Reportedly, issues outstanding include length of the cease-fire, monitoring of the crossings, what goods would be permitted in via the crossings and progress on securing the release of Shalit.

The Hamas negotiators were stopped by Egyptian police on their way out of Egypt, as they were carrying some 8 million dollars and two million Euros in cash, in suitcases.

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see my website www.ArlenefromIsrael.info

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

Doc's Talk