Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Who should be Israel's next foreign minister?

Binyamin Netanyahu starts negotiating on Wednesday to form a coalition government for Israel, and one of the first questions he has to face is whom to appoint as foreign minister? On the surface, it would appear that Netanyahu ought to pick someone who works well - or could work well - with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but Dick Morris points out that Clinton's power has been emasculated (Hat Tip: Memeorandum). The power of the secretary of State flows directly from the president. But Hillary does not have the inside track with Obama. Rice and Powers, close advisers in the campaign, and Gen. Jones — whose office is in the White House — all may have superior access. Holbrooke and Mitchell will have more immediate information about the world’s trouble spots.

So what is Hillary’s mandate? Of what is she secretary of State? If you take the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan out of the equation, what is left? One would have to assume that the old North Korea hands in the government would monopolize that theater of action. What, precisely, is it that Hillary is to do? The question lingers.

For Netanyahu, this means that he must pick someone who can stand up to UN Ambassador Susan Rice, former Harvard professor Samantha Powers, General James Jones and Middle East Envoy George Mitchell (Holbrooke has nothing to do with us), none of whom is particularly known as friendly to Israel.

If Kadima is part of the government and Livni takes the number 2 spot, she will undoubtedly want the foreign ministry back. Given how she mishandled Resolution 1701 at the end of the Second Lebanon War and the 11th hour agreement with Condi Clueless on weapons smuggling last month, it is clear that Livni is not the sharpest razor in the medicine chest and ought not to be foreign minister. Yet another reason not to have Kadima in the government.

But Netanyahu has several excellent choices. Obviously, he could keep the ministry himself - he has been foreign minister before and he was Israel's UN ambassador in the early '80's where he first burst into prominence during the First Lebanon War. I think it's unlikely Netanyahu will keep the position for himself. There are too many candidates for cabinet positions for him to keep an extra one, and the foreign ministry needs a full-time minister.

One person I would consider appointing foreign minister is Avigdor Lieberman. Most of the talk here with regard to Lieberman and the cabinet would put him in the defense ministry. That would be a mistake. Israel needs someone as defense minister who knows how to deal with the army and not someone who has to learn on the job. Ehud Olmert tried appointing someone who had to learn on the job and we all know how that worked out. Besides, Netanyahu has Moshe (Boogie) Yaalon on his own list and Yaalon is an obvious choice for defense minister. But the foreign ministry might be a good fit for Lieberman. I don't know yet how bright he is, but he is certainly strong enough to withstand the pressures that Rice, Power, Jones and Mitchell may throw at him.

If Lieberman doesn't want it, I'd consider two other candidates for the foreign ministry. One is Benny Begin, who is high on the Likud's list, a straight shooter (which is the only kind of shooter the Americans want to see) and a strong ideologue. The other person I'd consider for the foreign ministry is Uzi Landau. Landau, the former Likud ideologue who is also known for his honesty, was number 2 on Yisrael Beiteinu's list and also has the grit to stand up to the American quartet.

You will note that one name I left off my short list is former foreign minister and Likud MK Sylvan Shalom. I believe he was out of his league during his stint at the foreign ministry (better than Livni but not by much) and that he would be manipulated by the Americans.

It's going to be fun speculating for the next few weeks....
http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2009/02/who-should-be-israels-next-foreign.html

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