Amir Taheri
To cancel or not to cancel? For the last three months, that has been the question for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad His allegedly fraudulent re-election last June triggered a crisis that has shaken the Islamic Republic, forcing the authorities to cancel dozens of events that the opposition might have used as cover for mass protests.
Among those are the Asian Games, the 20th anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death and the start of the second decade of Ali Khamenei's reign as the "supreme guide," the International Jamboree of Islamic Girl Guides and virtually all of Ahmadinejad's trademark visits to the provinces. Even major soccer matches have been canceled or, for contests against foreign teams, transferred to other countries.
There was one event that the regime dared not cancel: the annual Jerusalem Day at the end of the fasting month of Ramadan. The regime managed to mobilize thousands of supporters -- but the opposition succeeded in bringing almost as many people into the streets with cries of "Death to the dictator!" Many Iranians dubbed the occasion "Iran Day" and chanted slogans that indicated a rejection of the regime's anti-Israel and pro-Hamas positions.
Now the regime is pondering canceling the annual ceremony of "cursing the Great Satan" on Nov. 4 -- the 30th anniversary of the day in 1979 that Khomeinist "students" raided the US embassy compound in Tehran, taking hostage the diplomats who'd be held for 444 days.
The occasion has entered Khomeinist folklore as the second-most important date on the Islamist calendar, after Feb. 11, which marks the mullahs' seizure of power.
On Nov. 4, militants gather in front of the former embassy, long since transformed into a "Museum of American Crimes," to burn US flags and an effigy of the sitting US president. The rituals start with the reading of a message from the "supreme guide," calling for the "destruction of America," followed with vitriolic speeches by regime grandees, including the president.
This year, however, the democracy movement has served notice it intends to transform the occasion into a day of "opposition to despotism and terror."
Appeals on Web sites and via e-mail and phone urge Iranians to "turn out en masse" to show their rejection of "evil xenophobia" and support for free elections. Instructions for pro-democracy activists include replacing the traditional anti-US slogans with 12 new slogans targeting the Khomeinist regime.
Judging by the part of the regime's internal debate that's leaked to the public, three options are on the table:
* Scale down the event by limiting it to a televised reading of the supreme guide's message at the former embassy.
Supporters of that option, including Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki, argue that the move would send a positive signal to the Obama administration, encouraging it to offer greater concessions. At the same time, a scaled-down event would deny pro-democracy groups the chance to flex their muscles in the streets.
* Opt for "the biggest anti-American demonstration in history," in the words of Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Aziz Jaafari, who thinks he can maintain control of the capital and keep pro-democracy demonstrators off central streets.
A huge anti-American demonstration, he argues, would force Obama, who's supposedly desperate to reduce world anger at America, to placate Iran with more concessions.
* Quietly cancel the event, thus avoiding the exposure of divisions in the ruling establishment. This option is advocated by some regime grandees, including Ayatollah Nateq Nuri, a former speaker of the Islamic parliament.
Ahmadinejad's position remains unknown. But one thing seems certain: He won't appear in person to deliver the usual anti-US tirade -- because he's no longer sure of the reception he might get from the crowds, even ones his agents put them together.
Another thing that seems certain is that, outside some shrinking radical circles, anti-Americanism is no longer fashionable even in the Khomeinist establishment.
For the first time this year, there will be no festival of anti-American films and no exhibitions of anti-American art. Nor will there be the traditional avalanche of books and article about the "Great Satan's crimes." Most of the usual seminars and conferences on "American crimes" have been canceled, depriving many foreign professional anti-Americans of a free trip to Iran.
Anti-Americanism never acquired roots in Iran, where a majority has always had a positive view of the United States. The regime used anti-Americanism as part of its ideological paraphernalia, to garner support from the left and radical regimes across the globe.
A source close to pro-democracy-movement leader Mir Hussein Moussavi says the opposition hopes to "focus attention on the real enemy within, not the imagined one abroad."
The opposition is concerned that, while it is fighting the regime, America may give Ahmadinejad some legitimacy by accepting him as interlocutor. "We have the courage to fight this regime, but do you?" is the message that Moussavi hopes to transmit to America and other democratic powers.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Amir Taheri writes for the NY Post. His latest book is The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution. Feedback: editorialdirector@familysecuritymatters.org.
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