Friday, November 06, 2009

Does Hillary Care?

Emmanuel Navon
www.navon.com

From the fiasco of the "HillaryCare," the American Secretary of State seems to have learned that it takes more than good intentions to solve thorny issues. And from her husband, she must know all the details of why the United States was unable to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at Camp David in July 2000. From Clinton's latest statements, it would seem that the US Administration is not going to be pushed around by the casuistic arguments or cheap drama of Middle Eastern leaders. Mahmoud Abbas threatened to resign unless Israel freezes all building activities beyond the Green Line as a condition for renewing negotiations. Clinton brushed him off, pointedly reminding him that there never was such a condition in the past sixteen years of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Ahmadinejad said recently that he "was thinking" about the US offer on uranium enrichment. Clinton just made it clear that it was a take-it-or-leave offer, implying that chess might be a Persian invention but America knows how to play it too.

Let's hope that Clinton's recent statements are an indication that the Obama Administration is not being starry-eyed about the Middle East. Because the supposedly tough-minded and no-nonsense Nicolas Sarkozy is unfortunately making a fool of himself in that region.

On paper, Sarkozy's Union pour la Méditerranée launched in July 2008 in Paris was a fine idea: Give Turkey an alternative to EU membership, and make Israelis and Palestinians cooperate on joint economic projects until they iron out their political differences. In the meantime, Turkey came out of the closet with its Islamic-oriented foreign policy. And Egypt, which is supposedly at peace with Israel, said it would boycott the upcoming summit of the Mediterranean Union, officially because of Avigdor Lieberman's presence there. A humiliated Sarkozy had no choice but to cancel the summit.

Nicolas Sarkozy had the best of intentions about the explosive Middle East, the same way that Hillary Clinton had the best of intentions about the dysfunctional American medical system. And just as Clinton miscalculated the power of conservatives, libertarians, and of course of the health insurance industry, Sarkozy misjudged the interests and intentions of Egypt and Turkey.

Turkey is no longer trying to gain acceptance as a European wannabe, and Egypt no longer needs to watch its step for the yearly $1.5 Billion of US aid to pour in. Today, Egypt and Turkey are competing for their respective roles in the Muslim world. Not surprisingly, they both lobbied (successfully) for Barack Obama to give landmark speeches in Ankara and Cairo. Egypt and Turkey's PR toward the Muslim world implies Israel-bashing. Hence Erdogan's staged temper-tantrum at Peres in Davos and Mubarak's cavalier dismissal of Lieberman.

Israel, of course, could try and make Egypt and Turkey pay a price for their policy by lobbying the US Congress to make aid to Egypt conditional and to officially recognize Turkey's role in the Armenian genocide. But, most importantly, Israel should implement a new "periphery policy" and make the "economic peace" as unofficial as possible.

Starting from the late 1950's, Israel's "periphery policy" consisted in forging strategic ties with the non-Arab states of the hopelessly hostile Middle East (Iran, Turkey, and Ethiopia, but also the Christian minorities of Lebanon and Southern Sudan, as well as the Kurds of Northern Iraq). Today, of course, Iran and Turkey are lost. Israel has been ignoring Sub-Saharan Africa for decades despite the huge amount of sympathy it enjoys there. Avigdor Lieberman should be commanded for making an official visit to Africa a couple of months ago. His predecessors criminally ignored this strategic next-door neighbor for too long.

As for the "economic peace," it takes place everyday between Israeli companies and their counterparts in the Persian Gulf, precisely because there is no publicity about it and because governments are not involved. With all due respect to Sarkozy, joint business projects between Israelis and Arabs do exist. Involving governments and making the whole thing official only embarrasses Arab companies that are otherwise happy to work with Israel.

So if Clinton cares about not repeating the fiascos of the past, she should stick to her apparent toughness. And if Sarkozy cares about convincing the French to vote for him again in two-and-a-half years, he should call off his grand scheme before the comedy turns into a tragedy.

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