Tuesday, November 03, 2009

White House sounds alarm on $1.4 trillion budget deficit

Jon Ward and Matthew Mosk
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

The White House is beginning to send strong signals that it recognizes the $1.4 trillion budget deficit is a looming political problem that needs to be addressed, even as President Obama reminds Americans that the country's fiscal crisis originated with the Bush administration and will not be resolved overnight. The president's budget director, Peter R. Orszag, on Tuesday will deliver the second major speech on the deficit in a week by a top White House official. Mr. Orszag's speech on "reining in the deficit" will be the first time that a top White House economist will look forward at the difficult task of reducing the gap between government revenues and expenditures.

A speech last week by Christina D. Romer, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, looked at the reasons for the deficit and at how it relates to health care reform. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner appeared on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday to make clear that the administration recognizes the deficit is growing too large.

"Well, it's going to have to come down. Now it's too high, and I think everybody understands this," Mr. Geithner said. "The president's very committed to bring down these deficits."

Republicans have hammered the administration for government spending levels, and public polling for the first time is showing that the American public is losing confidence in the president's handling of the economic crisis. That shift occurred in the middle of last month, when a range of public surveys showed that more people (46.9 percent) disapproved of the president's handling of the economy than approved of it (45 percent), according to the Web site Pollster.com.

Anxiety about the deficit has fueled the anger of the conservative "tea party" activists, riled by government spending and debt, and it has seeded reservations about the long-term price tags of signature items on the president's agenda such as health care reform and climate change legislation.

"They're using language which comes from polling and focus groups about the concern, but the substance of their action is just the opposite of their language," said Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, the ranking Republican on the Senate Budget Committee. "The simple fact is they are in the process of growing this government at a rate that it has never been grown before."

Mr. Gregg, who was chosen by Mr. Obama to be secretary of commerce until he abruptly withdrew before being confirmed, said the Obama administration "believes that an expanded, growing government creates prosperity. That's the European model."

Administration officials said Mr. Orszag's speech is a recognition that the deficit will continue to be a challenge and an issue of concern even if health care reform is passed and will need additional treatment beyond "bending the curve" of health care costs.

Mr. Orszag's speech will not contain any new proposals or policy solutions, but will attempt to lay a foundation for the conversations to come next year.

"Director Orszag will discuss the state of the economy, our fiscal situation, and the administration's commitment to returning our nation to fiscal sustainability and building a new foundation for economic growth," said Ken Baer, a spokesman for the White House Office of Management and Budget.

As his top aides try to make clear that they recognize the problem, Mr. Obama has added an element to his speeches: He reminds the public that he "wasn't sworn in yet" when the nation's economy took a nosedive.

"You know, you got a little bit of revisionist history, a little selective memory going on, a little amnesia about how we got into this mess," he said at a rally Sunday in Newark, N.J. "This crisis that we are digging ourselves out of came about because of the same theories, the same lax regulation, the same trickle-down economics that the other guy's party has been peddling for years."

The White House notes that $5 trillion was added to the deficit by the 2003 enactment of a Medicare program that expanded access to prescription drugs, and by tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. Another $4 trillion was added, the administration says, by the bailouts required during the near-economic meltdown last autumn.

One significant political concern the White House has faced is polling that shows most Americans do not think the spending is helping them.

"Voters appear to be aware that the federal government is spending at unprecedented levels, but they believe the benefits are accruing mostly to large banks, Wall Street and manufacturing firms (which I'd wager really means General Motors), but not to average people," Mark Blumenthal, the editor and publisher of Pollster.com, wrote in a recent blog post.

The White House on Monday was noncommittal on one of the top political solutions under discussion: the creation of a bipartisan commission to study the problems of the long-term deficit and debt and to deliver recommendations to Congress for up or down votes that could not be amended.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Monday that the idea will "be looked at."

On Capitol Hill, Democratic leaders already are responding to the issue.

The Senate's most recent version of an energy bill, for instance, gives away fewer free emissions permits than the House version in order to keep the legislation deficit neutral. Speaking to reporters Thursday evening, Sen. Barbara Boxer said: "Everyone wants deficit reduction. There isn't a person on my committee, on the Democratic side, that wants to have anything but a deficit-neutral bill."

Mr. Orszag is at work crafting the president's second budget, for fiscal 2011, which is set to be released in February. When Mr. Orszag released the budget for fiscal 2010 earlier this year, a centerpiece of the White House rollout was a commitment to cutting the deficit in half by the end of Mr. Obama's first four-year term.

The budget outlook has darkened considerably since that time. The 10-year forecast then was for a $7 trillion combined deficit, but that number has since gone up to $9 trillion, which is roughly two-thirds the size of the entire American economy's output for a current year.

The national debt, which passed the $10 trillion mark in September 2008, is now nearing the $12 trillion mark and is expected to go over that number before the end of the year.

Mr. Gibbs on Monday reiterated the pledge to cut the deficit in half from the $1.3 trillion the White House says it inherited in fiscal 2009 from the Bush administration down to roughly $533 billion by the end of fiscal 2013.

But Brian Riedl, a budget analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said that that promise is little more than a ploy that drafts behind three naturally occurring events: the end of the recession, the end of the war in Iraq, and the winding-down of spending $787 billion in stimulus money.

Those dynamics by themselves would have cut the deficit in half, Mr. Riedl said. In addition, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the deficit will spike after Mr. Obama's first term to higher than $1 trillion again.

"The better way to measure is before the recession we had deficits of $360 billion. One would hope after the recession we'd go back to that level," Mr. Riedl said. "How come the post-recession deficits are going to be three times higher than the pre-recession deficits?"

Comment: Note the date, November 3, 2009-it took until this day for the Obama gang to acknowledge the entry level reality. I rather suspect they would have continued lying about the deficit unless the alternative media had not kept reporting the truth. All of the Dems games, "hide the peanut under the cup, follow it as it moves" strategies have failed. I might add this isthe government of transparency-not exactly what you voted for now is it? I also caution that this is the initial indebtedness shared-the history of government plans is the cost over ride is in the double digits of their own predictions-the worst is on its way. Spengel is correct: america should focus on economic recovery, stabilizing the dollar, and kstabilizing India and China's business as well-we are mutually dependent upon one another.

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