J.J. Green, wtop.com
WASHINGTON - Shortly after the arrest of Faisal Shahzad aboard an Emirates Airline flight to Dubai on May 3, authorities learned that the Times Square bombing was not his only plot. "There is a strong belief in the U.S counter-terrorism community that we will see additional attacks unfold in primarily New York City and Washington, D.C., in the next five- to six-month timeframe," says Fred Burton, vice president of intelligence at Stratfor Global Intelligence.
U.S. law enforcement officials would not comment on the investigation or intelligence that suggests as many as a half dozen plots may have been in the works.
WNYW-TV in New York reported that Shahzad told interrogators he wanted to attack Rockefeller Plaza, Grand Central Terminal, the World Financial Center and the Connecticut headquarters of defense contractor Sikorsky -- if the Times Square attack worked.
As for D.C., Burton says there have been no specific targets identified.
"Although I certainly lean toward public transportation, like subways and other large areas that would be open to the public, such as heavily transited tourist areas."
Some counter-terrorism professionals suggest the Times Square event ushered in a new understanding of the Pakistani Taliban's capabilities.
"If they did it once, they will do it again," says Offer Baruch, a former member of Israel's Shin Bet.
"The Taliban doesn't need to come and say this is what we want to do. They've already proved they have the capability. The guy [Shahzad] was here. It doesn't matter how immature it [his plot] was. They already have a cell here on American soil."
Baruch says he believes U.S. authorities have not commented publicly on the threat to Washington and other places to maintain an advantage over the terrorists.
Sources in Washington also indicated there is significant pressure on the counter-terrorism and security elements of the Obama administration to maintain tight control of what the public is told about the investigation.
"I think they have some kind of intelligence information that something is going to happen, and they are in the process of investigating it," Baruch says.
"The authorities want to buy some time to continue to investigate and collect evidence and put their hands on the suspect before they announce it."
The Justice Department suspects Shahzad operated under the command and control of the Pakistani Taliban. Shahzad appeared in court for the first time Tuesday.
Shahzad faces five charges. Two charges -- attempted use of weapons of mass destruction and attempted acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries -- carry the potential of life in prison, if he's convicted.
"We know that they [Pakistani Taliban] helped facilitate it," says Attorney Eric H. Holder. "We know that they probably helped finance it."
But Rahimullah Yusufzai, who is well-connected to the Taliban and the last-known journalist to interview al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, believes their capabilities are being exaggerated.
"They don't really have money to give the person [potential terrorist]. They can't make a plan for the person to attack targets in the U.S. They can't send explosives from here. I don't think the Taliban even knows where Times Square is. I don't think they know how to use a credit card or how to book an airline ticket. These things they can't do."
Yusufzai, who lives near Pakistan's troubled tribal region, sees no proof they could do it.
"I think there has been no evidence yet that the Pakistani Taliban has been able to strike outside Pakistan and Afghanistan. Their main area of operation is Pakistan. They can strike anywhere in Pakistan and they have been helping the Afghan Taliban."
Additionally, referencing the Fort Hood shooting in November 2009, he says the organization has lied about its exploits.
"Last year, [Taliban Leader] Baitullah Meshud, before he was killed in a U.S. missile strike, said that there was some incident in the U.S. in which a Muslim American fired at people and killed 14. Meshud claimed responsibility for that incident, which was not true."
Regardless of who allegedly supported the plotting and planning of the Times Square attempt, former State Department Counter-terrorism Agent Dennis Pluchinsky, who now lectures at George Mason University, warns there are two types of terrorism evolving in the U.S.: leaderless terrorism and command-and-control terrorism.
"If you're talking about the December 2009 attack over Detroit or the recent attack in Times Square, these are examples of what we call command-and-control terrorism."
Pluchinsky says command-and-control terrorism means the operatives "were under the command and control of a larger parent terrorist organization."
Pluchinsky says leaderless terrorism, which is on the rise in the U.S., usually involves ill-trained terrorists operating on their own.
"If you look at this from a counter-terrorism perspective, that bomb should have worked on that aircraft going into Detroit," Burton says.
"That bomb should have worked at Times Square. The bomb-makers will go back to the drawing board and eventually get it right."
Baruch says he expects more plots.
"The Taliban, al-Qaida [and] any affiliate radical Islamic organization would love to make some points in the war against the west. The biggest reward they can gain is conducting some kind of attack on American soil."
(Copyright 2010 by WTOP. All Rights Reserved.)
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