Monday, May 10, 2010

The Worst Talk Show in Town

Emmanuel Navon

In order to know what to expect from the upcoming indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians all you need is to watch Goldfinger, the 1964 James Bond movie. In one of the movie’s scenes, Bond is tied by Goldfinger to a table underneath a laser beam, which slowly slices the table in half in between Bond’s legs. Then the laser approaches Bond’s lower body. "Do you expect me to talk?" asks Bond. "No, Mr. Bond" answers Goldfinger. "I expect you to die." he analogy is admittedly unfair: the Palestinians are willing to talk us to death, playing the negotiation game until Iran has a bomb and until the two-state solution becomes unworkable.

In international affairs, analogies are generally misleading. This past week, both Shimon Peres and Avigdor Lieberman referred to the former Czechoslovakia to make opposite points. Lieberman warned the West not to use Israel as a guinea pig to double-check the wisdom of Munich. Peres, for his part, claimed that if the Czechs and the Slovaks could split without a messy divorce (and join the EU), then surely Israel and the Palestinians can follow suit.

Then there is the analogy between US presidents and Persian kings. Harry Truman compared himself to Cyrus for supporting the creation of Israel despite the strong reservations of the State Department and of the Pentagon. Were Barack Obama to look for his own historical role model, I would suggest King Artaxerxes.

Cyrus allowed the Jews to return to their land and rebuild their Temple. The Jews' return, however, was opposed by the locals. The Land of Israel’s new inhabitants had no objection per se to the return of some Jews, but they were opposed to the restoration of the Jewish Kingdom. By saying "Let us build with you, for we seek your God as you do" (Ezra, 4:2), the autochthones meant that there should be no Jewish exclusivity. They also tried to undermine the rebuilding of the Jerusalem Temple and of the Jewish kingdom through terror and propaganda: "They frightened them off from building and hired counselors against them" (Ezra, 4:4-5). The local leaders sent a smear letter to the new Persian King, Artaxerxes, accusing the Jews of building a country whose purpose will be to rebel against Persia and to spread trouble and rebellion throughout the empire. King Artaxerxes therefore ordered to halt Jewish constructions in Jerusalem, especially the rebuilding of the Temple. Officially considered illegal by Persian law, the rebuilding of Jerusalem became a source of friction between the Jews and the new Persian king.

A more useful analogy, however, is between former British colonies turned into inextricable messes. With its "divide and rule" method, Britain maintained its colonial power by playing ethnic groups against one another. When the house got on fire, the Brits just threw the keys, letting Hindus and Muslims kill each other in India, Jews and Arabs in Palestine, Greeks and Turks in Cyprus. The list goes on.

The analogy is not gratuitous, for there are three lessons Israel can learn from Cyprus and India.

The first lesson is that you don’t need peace to solve ethnic conflicts. There is no peaceful solution to the Greek-Turkish conflict in Cyprus, and there probably never will (thanks, partly, to the EU, which by accepting Cyprus as a member in 2004 despite the Turkish occupation in the north let Turkey get away with murder). Greeks and Turks live in two separate polities on the same territory. There is a separation fence between them. Both peoples are unable or unwilling (or both) to bridge the gap between their conflicting claims, but each ethnic group has its de facto nation state. The fact that peace is unreachable does not mean that ethnic separation is impossible. These are two separate issues.

The second lesson is that two-state solutions can turn into three-state solutions. The two-state solution that emerged in chaos and tragedy between India and Pakistan in 1947 became a three-state solution when Pakistan split into two separate states in 1971 (East Pakistan became Bangladesh). Besides the fact that Gaza is controlled by Hamas, a united polity between Gaza and the West Bank is geographically nonsensical (indeed, there was no continuity between the two entities between 1949 and 1967).

The third lesson is that the world tolerates conflicts that are tolerable. The international community has come to terms with the fact that Cyprus issue will apparently never be solved and with the fact that India and Pakistan will likely remained sworn (and nuclear) enemies.

Will the world tolerate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if Israel manages to unilaterally separate itself from the Palestinians in a way that also disconnects Gaza from the West Bank? Probably. While you need both sides to agree in order to make peace, you only need one side to act in order to end the status quo. And there is nothing like an approaching laser beam to get moving.
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