INN Staff Polls 101: How to Bury Info
Anyone who works in statistical analysis knows that it is always possible to manipulate surveys, and one should read the findings of such reports critically.
But when it comes to news reports on political polls, it may be even more important to closely examine the differences between those reported in English and those reported in Hebrew editions of the same newspaper.. n the case of last week's Haaretz-Dialog poll, the same newspaper reported data differently in its Hebrew and English version. The reporting in Hebrew reflects a more detailed account of the 491 respondents' views than that revealed in the English-language version - and the choice of which data was omitted is telling.
The poll, carried out every few months under the direction of Professor Camil Fuchs at the Department of Statistics at Tel Aviv University, is extensive. It covers various general questions as well as a redux of how an election would end today.
In the Hebrew, complete details are available, with a full table and bar graph available to show the reader precisely what the respondent percentages were to each question. In the English-language edition, however, no such detail exists, and Haaretz writer Yossi Verter explains the results instead in a narrative focusing primarily on the political jockeying between the players, past, present and future.
Dr. Aaron Lerner of IMRA notes that Verter omitted mentioning the response to the burning question of the day, probably the most important one in the survey, properly placed unobtrusively in the middle of the survey so as to make its results more reliable statistically: “Might our continued presence in the territories lead to a bi-national state?”
The results were illuminating, in that a majority opined that the Jewish presence in Yesha would actually not endanger Israel's Jewish character.
Specifically, 53% said no, and only 28% answered yes. This information, neither question or answer, did not appear in Haaretz's English report at all.
Other Questions
Those polled were asked "Are you satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu?" 42% replied "yes" and 46% replied "no."
Asked how they would vote if elections were held today, the respondents answered as follows (the first group lists the coalition parties, and the second lists the Opposition parties). In brackets are today's Knesset figures:Likud 35 [27 seats today]
Yisrael Beiteinu 26 [15]
Labor 9 [13]
Shas 10 [11]
UTJ 5 [5]
Jewish Home 3 [3]
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Kadima 26 [28]
United Arab List 8 [11]
National Union 5 [4]
Meretz 5 [3]
Pollsters speculated that Netanyahu's personal support base has eroded due to the fact that much of it came from voters who relied on his campaign promise not to cave in to American pressure to make further land and/or security concessions to the Palestinian Authority. Specifically, the freeze he recently imposed on Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria has apparently led to a decrease in his support.
Other questions in the survey dealt with citizen satisfaction regarding personal security (better: 23%, same: 60%, worse: 14%), economic security (better: 17%, same: 50%, worse: 31%) and corruption in Israel (better: 9%, same: 40%, worse: 41%).
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