Doc's Talk: From Economic Peace to Two State Solution

Thursday, February 11, 2010

From Economic Peace to Two State Solution

Yisrael Ne'eman
Mideast: On Target

Riveted by the Iranian race to develop nuclear weapons Israelis are completely focused on the need to halt Ahmedinejad & Co. Whether the supposedly tough sanctions to be imposed by the West and Russia will work is yet to be seen. President Obama is aware of the Iranian threat to world security and is taking action, even if belatedly. Whether he will lead a military strike against Iranian targets should sanctions fail, no one knows. But once the Iranian crisis ends Israel will return to business as usual, meaning confronting Palestinian issues, tussling over conflict resolution and the implementation of the "two-state solution". Should the great Iranian distraction be neutralized to the satisfaction of Israel and the West, the Palestinian challenge will be next on the list. And even should there not be a full resolution to the Iranian crisis one can expect a diplomatic push on the Palestinian front. Time does not stand still. Not only has Israeli Likud (supposedly right wing) PM Benyamin Netanyahu spoken about an economic peace with the Palestinians as a first step in solving the conflict but Palestinian PM Salam Fayyad has taken him up on the deal. During 2009 the Israel removed the vast majority of roadblocks in the West Bank, terrorism and Hamas have been contained to the point of close to zero attacks against Israelis as a result of joint security cooperation and the Palestinian economy is booming (estimated growth somewhere around 7% or higher). Netanyahu is implementing a construction freeze in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and even though not total, it is stricter than anything seen in previous years.

Stage I of the famous Bush "Road Map" is coming to fruition. The Palestinians halt terrorism (with help from the IDF) and Israel ceases settlement construction. Taking a full chapter out of the Zionist playbook Fayyad wrote up his game plan for the establishment of a Palestinian State in August of last year in his 37 page document entitled "Palestine: Ending the Occupation, Establishing the State". It is finally realized that statehood is built by civilians from the bottom up. Within two years (beginning August 2009) he envisions a two-state solution based on the 1949-67 armistice lines and encompassing all the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital. Reviling the "occupation" but realizing the inability to win militarily he advocates jettisoning the armed struggle in favor of massive economic development throughout the entire West Bank while living alongside Israel. As an economist he is confronted with a stark reality: Israel's GDP for 2009 was approximately $200 billion while the Palestinian Authority economy is worth $12.6 billion. The Israeli population (incl. 1.5 million Arabs) is 7.4 million and the Palestinian about 4 million. On a per capita level Israel's economy is more than 8.5 times larger than the Palestinian and in absolute terms is almost 16 times greater.

Concerning economic development Fayyad, Netanyahu, the EU, the US and all others interested in stability are in favor of this first step. Although PM in a Fatah government, Fayyad, known as a moderate and pragmatist, faces opposition from within the regime. There are those advocating refugee return such as Pres. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) while others on the right wing still speak of an "armed struggle" if all their demands are not met. Hamas, the Jihad and other Islamists are all violently opposed to a two-state solution but are holed up in Gaza facing increasing restrictions as the Egyptians continue building an above and below ground barrier to halt the flow of weapons and other military contraband into the Strip.

The time of reckoning has arrived in Israel and many would be grateful there is a right of center government in power since they can cut the deal with little official opposition. Echoing the now defunct Israeli Left, the "intransigent", "extremist", "right wing" Netanyahu announced in June his acceptance of the two-state solution, and as usual with the conditions of demilitarization of the Palestinian entity.

With the Iranians seriously contained or even defeated the door will be thrown wide open for world scrutiny and involvement in ending the conflict. But of course "the devil is in the details". All will be parachuted into Stage II of the Road Map delineating a temporary Palestinian State developing state institutions and an economy, yet without permanent boundaries. Israel is to gain further security cooperation.

One can expect Netanyahu to hesitatingly move the process along in the West Bank. His underlying motivation will be two fold – to avoid falling into a bi-national state and to ensure US/EU support leading to continued Israeli economic development. Today Jews are no longer a majority in the Land of Israel or what had been the Palestine Mandate from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River. Both Jews and Arabs (Palestinian and Israeli) comprise a population of 5.6 million each. In the middle are several hundred thousand Eastern Europeans of non Jewish background who arrived in Israel during the Russian immigration in the 1990s. Israel's waning diplomatic position and economic development are intertwined, especially when it comes to Europe as Israel's largest trading partner. Add to that the Obama administration's focus on the need for rapprochement with the secular regimes in the Arab/Muslim world and it appears everyone is on the same page in working towards the two-state solution.

The sharpest internal issue in Israel will be how to handle those Jews living in the West Bank and outside whichever new borders will be drawn. For instance, one assumes the settlement blocs around Jerusalem will remain in Israel in a land swap with the Palestinians but at the minimum some 80,000 Jews (out of a population of a quarter million) will find themselves in the newly established Palestinian State. In July PM Fayyad, in answer to a question in Aspen, Colorado, announced that under his plan all Jews could remain in the Palestinian State, the same way the same way there is an Arab minority in the Jewish State. This was a welcome opening to solving the issue of the "settlements" only to be swept aside this past January when Fayyad speaking in Arabic in Ramallah nullified such a possibility. No government in Israel has the ability to remove such a large number of families and resettle them. Not only will Israeli/Jewish society be shredded but the financial burden will be unbearable. The hope is that Fayyad's former commitment overrides what he said just recently.

Jerusalem is a central issue. Most likely a borough system with Arab neighborhoods belonging to the Palestinians and Jewish neighborhoods being included in Israel will provide the beginning of an answer. A solution as to who controls the Old City (or is it split?) and the holy sites is a stickier issue, one which may be resolved with international involvement.

The other major issue for Israel is security - with the Jordan River serving as a natural boundary. Israel does not trust the UN or anyone else to ensure its security. When war threatens, peace keeping troops have a tendency to flee or bunker down under ground. Israel will need a permanent military presence along the Jordan River, even if in conjunction with other forces (US, EU, Palestinian, etc.).
Whether one likes it or not, the moment of truth is arriving and not just on the Iranian front. The Fayyad Plan is certainly worth a starting point for discussions, although it should not be taken only at face value. Yet tough negotiating lies ahead. Israel must remain a physically secure Jewish and democratic state. Any other alternatives would undermine the original Zionist vision of Jewish national liberation.

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

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