Jerome R. Corsi
© 2010 WorldNetDaily
CHICAGO – A new "Little Ice Age" could begin in just four years, predicted Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia.
Abdussamatov was speaking yesterday at the Heartland Institute's Fourth International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago, which began Sunday and ends today.
The Little Ice Age, which occurred after an era known in scientific circles as the Medieval Warm Period, is typically defined as a period of about 200 years, beginning around 1650 and extending through 1850 In 2003-2005, Abdussamatov predicted a reduction of sunspot activity that would reach a new minimum in 2042, resulting in a deep global temperature minimum in the years 2055-2060.
"My predictions are looking better and better with each passing year," Abdussamatov declared.
Space station to refine predictions
In his capacity of the head of the Russian-Ukrainian project "Astrometria" on the Russian segment of the International Space Station, Abdussamatov is conducting additional research to refine his prediction that a new Little Ice Age will begin in 2014.
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Abdussamatov's theory is that "long-term variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages to the big glacial periods."
In his speech's conclusion, Abdussamatov took on advocates of the theory of man-caused warming who want to diminish human use of hydrocarbon fuels. He contended, instead, that a reasonable way to combat coming cooling trends would be "to maintain economic growth in order to adapt to the upcoming new Little Ice Age in the middle of the 21st century."
Sun activity determines temperatures
Abdussamatov's research amounts to a sharp rebuke of climate scientists who believe human-generated carbon dioxide is responsible for causing catastrophic global warming, issuing instead a news flash announcing "Sun Heats Earth!"
WND previously reported Abdussamatov published a paper in which he tracked sunspot activity going back to the 19th century to argue that total sun irradiance, or TSI, is the primary factor responsible for causing climate variations on Earth, not carbon dioxide.
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Abdussamatov concluded Earth is no longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming forecast by some scientists, since warming passed its peak in 1998-2005.
"The global temperature of the Earth has begun its decrease without limits on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions by industrial developed countries," he wrote. "Therefore, the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years."
In 2007, National Geographic published Abdussamatov's explanation that the global warming observed in the shrinking of the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mar's South Pole was caused by reduced solar activity.
"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," Abdussamatov wrote.
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http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=155225
Guest Comment:Bryan Fischer-Focal Point
You read it here first: CO2 to be blamed for global cooling
Date: 5/18/2010 10:26:30 AM
It is becoming increasingly clear that we are likely headed into a prolonged period of global cooling, due to the cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean and the lowest level of solar activity in decades.
The Pacific Decadal Oscilliation (PDO), which alternates from warmer to cooler water temperatures every 25-30 years, closely correlates with the rise and fall of global temperatures. The PDO began warming in 1977, explaining the warming we've experienced for two decades or so, but is now entering a cooling phase.
Scientists also point out that solar radiation is lower than it has been for decades, once again signaling that we may be headed into a period of declining global temperatures.
Pity our poor friends in the evangelical movement who tried to get out in front of the global warming craze and curry favor with the wrong people. What possesses them to seek the favor of the world escapes me, but they tried and to a limited extent succeeded. Now, however, they are faced with the dim prospect of being proved spectacularly wrong. I expect we will hear no apologies from them for trying to stampede the sheep off this particular cliff. We likely will hear nothing from them at all as they will whistle and look about as if their infatuation with the worship of Gaea never even happened. The silence will be an improvement.
I predict that we will soon begin hearing rabid environmentalists start claiming that rising levels of CO2 are responsible for global cooling. Remember, these are the same folks that were in hysterics in the mid-70s over a coming ice age, which they blamed on aerosol content in the air. Well, once the PDO shifted to a warmer phase in 1977, and the earth began to warm, it was not long before they began bleating about human-sourced emissions causing catastrophic overheating instead.
The truth is that if they really believe their own swill - that CO2 emissions warm the earth - they ought soon to be urging us to emit more and more CO2 to ward off the catastrophic effects of global cooling. That would be consistent and logical, which is why we won't hear anything about it from them at all. Logic, reason and science simply are not their forte. Their agenda is not to save the planet, but to destroy capitalism, and so scientific evidence and truth don't matter to their message. Their message will simply get re-packaged, using the same boogey-man but blaming him for a polar opposite outcome.
Now that the PDO is shifting to a cooler phase, and the sun has entered a quiet phase, you can expect the Chicken Littles, once they embrace the reality of cooling, to pin the tail on the CO2 donkey. Trust me, they will find a way to hang this on CO2 emissions. They will convince us that they simply misunderstood the data, that science is a fluid and evolving discipline, that as CO2 concentrations have increased willy-nilly over lo these many years we now at last can see its cumulative effect, etc. We will soon hear calls to cap CO2 emissions to save the earth not from getting too hot but from getting too cold.
Don't forget - you read it here first, on May 18, 2010.
Subject: Leading Russian scientist proves SOLAR global warming heating both Mars and Earth, NOT C02.
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