Thursday, June 24, 2010

Israeli Arabs – Modernity Up, Birth Rate Down

Adam Reuter, CEO of “Financial Immunities” (consulting 500 Israeli companies – 40% of Israel’s GDP)

“The Marker” (Ha’aretz’) business daily, June 20, 2010

A dramatic decline in Israeli Arab fertility rate has been documented during the last 15 years, while secular Jewish fertility rate has surged. In addition, there has been a drastic increase in the rate of returning expatriate Israelis, due to the positive performance of Israel’s economy in face of the global meltdown. The number of Olim (immigrants) has grown due to the same economic reason. The conclusion is clear – in defiance of politically correct demographic dooms day projections - the proportion of Israeli Arabs, within Israel’s overall population, is expected to decline.

A thorough demographic research/audit has been conducted in recent years by the America-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG), which includes experts in the areas of statistics, mathematics, computers, auditing and economics. AIDRG’s groundbreaking findings enhance optimism and could improve planning in the areas of Aliya, education, economy, human services, water allocation to the PA, diplomacy and national security. AIDRG findings pull the rug from under the feet of unwarranted Arab-Phobia, which has been nurtured by the illogical fear of Arab demography.

AIDRG findings are presented, on a daily basis, to movers and shakers in the US and (especially) in Israel, including “The Herzliya Conference”, the Jewish Agency Board of Governors, the National Security Council, Military Intelligence, Knesset Committees, editorial boards, Prime Minister Office, Cabinet Members, leading academic institutions, leading businessmen, etc.

The number of annual Israeli Arab births has stabilized, during 1995-2009, around 39,000. At the same time – and in contrast to normative demographics – the annual number of Israeli Jewish births has surged by 50% - from 80,400 to 121,000. Jewish births accounted to 69% of total births in 1995, 74% in 2006 and more than 75% in 2009.

In 2010, Israeli Arabs constitute 20% of the total population, 3.5% of whom are residents (and not Israeli citizens) from the eastern part of Jerusalem. Therefore, Israeli Arab citizens account to 16.5% of the voting population. Moreover, Israeli Druz, who serve with distinction in the Israeli military, are a distinct ethnic and religious Muslim sector – which is not Arab – amounting to 2% of the population. Thus, Israeli Arabs account to 14.5% of the voting population, 2% of which are Christian Arabs.

In contrast to politically-correct projections, since 1948, the proportion of the Arab population has not grown substantially. In fact, it is expected to decline as a result of the impact of modernity and the significant increase in secular Jewish fertility.

Israeli-born secular Jewish women, and especially descendants of the more than one million Olim (immigrants) from the former USSR, are chiefly responsible for the enhanced Jewish demography. The latter arrived to the Jewish State with a typical Russian fertility rate of 1.2 births per woman, switching to 2.3 births per woman. Furthermore, the second and third generation Israeli-born secular Jewish women have already reached 2.6 births.

From a 6 births gap between Arab and Jewish fertility rates in 1969, the gap has shrunk to 0.7 (3.5:2.8) in 2009. The fertility trend indicates convergence at 3 births per Arab and Jewish women, with a current 3.1 births (and trending upward) for Israeli-born Jewish women (including religious women).

AIDRG has employed geometric – and not linear – progression analysis, concluding that Jewish demography benefits from a powerful tailwind.

Migration – including emigrants and returnees - has played a key role in setting the Jewish-Arab demographic balance. 20,000 Olim (immigrants) arrived in 2007, 16,000 in 2008, 15,000 in 2009 and 16,000 are expected to arrive in 2010. The number of returning expatriates has increased: 11,000-12,000 annually, equaling the number of emigrants (10% of whom are Israeli Arabs). Therefore, Israel’s Jewish population benefits from a 16,000 net annual immigration.

The rate of net-immigration is expected to rise significantly due to economy-driven migration. According to a recent Australian study, Israel has fared economically – during the global economic meltdown - better than most countries. Immigration to Israel has been generated, usually, from countries with a lower GDP per capita. The last two years have improved Israel’s GDP per capita in relation to most countries, including Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, France, Britain and even the USA, which are platforms of prospective Aliya (immigration to Israel). Israel’s IRS Rule # 169 entices immigration of wealthy Jews and the return of wealthy expatriates. In addition, Israel has activated a special incentive plan to absorb former “brain drain” emigrants. Consequently, one can assume that the level of net annual immigration will be – at least – 20,000 and that the proportion of Israel’s Arab population will decrease gradually.

The substantial decline in Arab fertility – which also characterizes all Muslim countries - has been a derivative of rapid and successful modernity/Westernization process. Israeli Arabs have been impressively integrated into Israel’s infrastructures of education, medicine, health, employment, finance, trade, agriculture, arts, culture, politics and sports. Arab women study more years and minimize teen-pregnancy. They develop career mentality, experience less reproductive years and their median wedding-age has peaked. Israeli Arab life-expectancy has reached an all-time high, which has expanded the older Arab population, thus increasing death-rate and decreasing natural growth rate (birth rate minus death rate).

According to a Gallup study, Jewish and Arab fertility preferences trend toward conversion, with the Jewish preference trending upward and the Arab preference trending downward.
Thanks to Yoram Ettinger

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"In addition, there has been a drastic increase in the rate of returning expatriate Israelis, due to the positive performance of Israel’s economy in face of the global meltdown. The number of Olim (immigrants) has grown due to the same economic reason."

Not to mention the other reason: Planet Nazi has gotten over its post WWII intermission and is ready to accept stoning and stabbing of Jews with death threats against them on the streets as no big deal. I would suspect that much, if not most of the disbelief of a healthy Jewish demographic in Israel will not come from the "politically correct" who want to see Israel become Arab but rather from those who fear Israel becoming Arab/Muslim. Disaster stories about Eurabia and a global caliphate and annihilation of Israel play better than the idea that, while Orthodox Islam brings lots of problems, does not have the legs to be a long-term threat to the world. But as pessimistic kuffars and optimistic Islamic fundies share the same message - that Islam will dominate - they can feed off of each others efforts. Not that it matters.

The real long-term threat to Israel is not demographic shifts but the innate antisemitism of humanity. As I gentile I would wish to advise Israelis and Jews everywhere to remember one thing: Non Jews will always seek to annihilate you. Never trust us. Ever. You can not make peace with us. We are evil.

Have a nice day.