Doc's Talk: Israeli Arabs – Modernity Up, Birth Rate Down

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Israeli Arabs – Modernity Up, Birth Rate Down

Adam Reuter, CEO of “Financial Immunities” (consulting 500 Israeli companies – 40% of Israel’s GDP)

“The Marker” (Ha’aretz’) business daily, June 20, 2010

http://www.themarker.com/tmc/article.jhtml?ElementId=/ibo/repositories/stories/m1_2000/skira20100620_52133696.xml

A dramatic decline in Israeli Arab fertility rate has been documented during the last 15 years, while secular Jewish fertility rate has surged. In addition, there has been a drastic increase in the rate of returning expatriate Israelis, due to the positive performance of Israel’s economy in face of the global meltdown. The number of Olim (immigrants) has grown due to the same economic reason. The conclusion is clear – in defiance of politically correct demographic dooms day projections - the proportion of Israeli Arabs, within Israel’s overall population, is expected to decline.

A thorough demographic research/audit has been conducted in recent years by the America-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG), which includes experts in the areas of statistics, mathematics, computers, auditing and economics. AIDRG’s groundbreaking findings enhance optimism and could improve planning in the areas of Aliya, education, economy, human services, water allocation to the PA, diplomacy and national security. AIDRG findings pull the rug from under the feet of unwarranted Arab-Phobia, which has been nurtured by the illogical fear of Arab demography.

AIDRG findings are presented, on a daily basis, to movers and shakers in the US and (especially) in Israel, including “The Herzliya Conference”, the Jewish Agency Board of Governors, the National Security Council, Military Intelligence, Knesset Committees, editorial boards, Prime Minister Office, Cabinet Members, leading academic institutions, leading businessmen, etc.

The number of annual Israeli Arab births has stabilized, during 1995-2009, around 39,000. At the same time – and in contrast to normative demographics – the annual number of Israeli Jewish births has surged by 50% - from 80,400 to 121,000. Jewish births accounted to 69% of total births in 1995, 74% in 2006 and more than 75% in 2009.

In 2010, Israeli Arabs constitute 20% of the total population, 3.5% of whom are residents (and not Israeli citizens) from the eastern part of Jerusalem. Therefore, Israeli Arab citizens account to 16.5% of the voting population. Moreover, Israeli Druz, who serve with distinction in the Israeli military, are a distinct ethnic and religious Muslim sector – which is not Arab – amounting to 2% of the population. Thus, Israeli Arabs account to 14.5% of the voting population, 2% of which are Christian Arabs.

In contrast to politically-correct projections, since 1948, the proportion of the Arab population has not grown substantially. In fact, it is expected to decline as a result of the impact of modernity and the significant increase in secular Jewish fertility.

Israeli-born secular Jewish women, and especially descendants of the more than one million Olim (immigrants) from the former USSR, are chiefly responsible for the enhanced Jewish demography. The latter arrived to the Jewish State with a typical Russian fertility rate of 1.2 births per woman, switching to 2.3 births per woman. Furthermore, the second and third generation Israeli-born secular Jewish women have already reached 2.6 births.

From a 6 births gap between Arab and Jewish fertility rates in 1969, the gap has shrunk to 0.7 (3.5:2.8) in 2009. The fertility trend indicates convergence at 3 births per Arab and Jewish women, with a current 3.1 births (and trending upward) for Israeli-born Jewish women (including religious women).

AIDRG has employed geometric – and not linear – progression analysis, concluding that Jewish demography benefits from a powerful tailwind.

Migration – including emigrants and returnees - has played a key role in setting the Jewish-Arab demographic balance. 20,000 Olim (immigrants) arrived in 2007, 16,000 in 2008, 15,000 in 2009 and 16,000 are expected to arrive in 2010. The number of returning expatriates has increased: 11,000-12,000 annually, equaling the number of emigrants (10% of whom are Israeli Arabs). Therefore, Israel’s Jewish population benefits from a 16,000 net annual immigration.

The rate of net-immigration is expected to rise significantly due to economy-driven migration. According to a recent Australian study, Israel has fared economically – during the global economic meltdown - better than most countries. Immigration to Israel has been generated, usually, from countries with a lower GDP per capita. The last two years have improved Israel’s GDP per capita in relation to most countries, including Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, France, Britain and even the USA, which are platforms of prospective Aliya (immigration to Israel). Israel’s IRS Rule # 169 entices immigration of wealthy Jews and the return of wealthy expatriates. In addition, Israel has activated a special incentive plan to absorb former “brain drain” emigrants. Consequently, one can assume that the level of net annual immigration will be – at least – 20,000 and that the proportion of Israel’s Arab population will decrease gradually.

The substantial decline in Arab fertility – which also characterizes all Muslim countries - has been a derivative of rapid and successful modernity/Westernization process. Israeli Arabs have been impressively integrated into Israel’s infrastructures of education, medicine, health, employment, finance, trade, agriculture, arts, culture, politics and sports. Arab women study more years and minimize teen-pregnancy. They develop career mentality, experience less reproductive years and their median wedding-age has peaked. Israeli Arab life-expectancy has reached an all-time high, which has expanded the older Arab population, thus increasing death-rate and decreasing natural growth rate (birth rate minus death rate).

According to a Gallup study, Jewish and Arab fertility preferences trend toward conversion, with the Jewish preference trending upward and the Arab preference trending downward.
Thanks to Yoram Ettinger

1 comment:

Anonymous said...: "In addition, there has been a drastic increase in the rate of returning expatriate Israelis, due to the positive performance of Israel’s economy in face of the global meltdown. The number of Olim (immigrants) has grown due to the same economic reason."

Not to mention the other reason: Planet Nazi has gotten over its post WWII intermission and is ready to accept stoning and stabbing of Jews with death threats against them on the streets as no big deal. I would suspect that much, if not most of the disbelief of a healthy Jewish demographic in Israel will not come from the "politically correct" who want to see Israel become Arab but rather from those who fear Israel becoming Arab/Muslim. Disaster stories about Eurabia and a global caliphate and annihilation of Israel play better than the idea that, while Orthodox Islam brings lots of problems, does not have the legs to be a long-term threat to the world. But as pessimistic kuffars and optimistic Islamic fundies share the same message - that Islam will dominate - they can feed off of each others efforts. Not that it matters.

The real long-term threat to Israel is not demographic shifts but the innate antisemitism of humanity. As I gentile I would wish to advise Israelis and Jews everywhere to remember one thing: Non Jews will always seek to annihilate you. Never trust us. Ever. You can not make peace with us. We are evil.

Have a nice day.; 9:07 PM

The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

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