Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Iranian statements that show apprehension regarding the ramifications of the sanctions against Iran

Jerusalem Today

Statements by conservative institutionalized bodies that publicly admit, although cautiously and with subtle criticism, that the sanctions are having an effect, however small. For example:

1. The Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council and Chairman of the Council of Guardians, Rafsanjani, said that throughout the entire period of the revolution never have such severe sanctions been imposed on Iran. I call upon you and upon all official functionaries to treat this seriously and not with humor. Over the past 30 years we have had wars and military threats but we never predicted such a calculated, arrogant attack on us. (Mehrnews, Sept. 14) 2. Chairman of the Iranian Majlis, Larijani, said. “I’m not saying that the sanctions do not have any effect, but their effect is very small.” (Syrian al-Watan, July 2)

Khabar Online, a website associated with Larijani, reported (July 21) acknowledgement that Iran has gradually entered a state of international isolation.

3. The Iranian President’s Chief of Staff and personal associate, Rahim Mashaei, said that “when they say sanctions have no effect, it doesn’t mean that there’s no economic effect, but that it won’t have the effect of changing the Ahmadinejad government’s policy.” (Fars, Aug. 4)

4. The Chairman of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency, Salehi, in an unusual statement, said, “It cannot be said that the sanctions imposed on Iran are without effect.” He added that the sanctions will probably cause a slowdown in Iran’s nuclear progress, but will not stop it. (Reuters, Isna, July 7)

5. The Iranian President’s First Vice President, Rahimi, said of the latest sanctions that the current situation is the most sensitive since the revolution, while stressing the need for cooperation and for taking care of all the organizations to prevent the sanctions from having an effect. He emphasized that the government will not allow the Iranian people to suffer from the pressure stemming from the sanctions, rejected the claim that the sanctions explain the recent price increases, and called upon the relevant bodies to supervise the situation in the economy to prevent what he described as “the psychological effect” deriving from the sanctions. (Mehr, Aug. 16)

6. Foreign Minister Mottaki announced the establishment of a headquarters to take special economic steps to deal with the sanctions imposed on Iran. (Irna, June 30)

7. Minister of Trade Ghadanfari and Economic Minister Hosseini claimed at a joint meeting that the sanctions have no significant effect on the Iranian economy although, according to them, it’s possible that Iran has paid a certain price. In another statement by the Minister of Trade, Ghadanfari, reflecting deep concern about the ramifications of the sanctions on the Iranian shipping fleet, he wondered what crime Iran had committed that caused sanctions to be imposed on its ships. He added that they needed to be protected and that Iran has a special defense plan in this regard. (Fararu quoting Dunya al-Iqtisad, June 14)

8. The head of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, Nahavandian, remarked that the sanctions policy will not achieve any results, “even though the prices of imported products might rise.” In another statement Nahavandian said that Iran is facing what he described as “a new wave of threats” on its economy; the sanctions are like a military war, and they should be taken seriously. He added that the sanctions are preventing Iran from exercising its right to be present in the international arena, and they must not be “naïve” and disregard them because the sanctions will have their effect, eventually, on the Iranian people. Yet he claimed that the people reject the language of pressure. He concluded that it is imperative to work on every front to lift the sanctions, since they prevent the country from progressing and its next generation must be protected. Nahavandian further said that the sanctions will lead to higher prices of goods, which will affect the rate of unemployment and inflation in Iran, so the government has to act seriously and announce that it will compensate the economic sector for the losses. Special attention and breaks are necessary. (Fararu, June 14; Aftab News, July 29, Aug. 8; ISNA, Aug. 9)

9. The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Bahmani, said in reference to the sanctions imposed by the EU that Iran is in an all-out (economic) war on all levels. (Iran Press News, Aug. 28)

10. The leader’s representative in the Khorasan region, Ayatollah Tabasi, a senior religious institutional personality, said with regard to the effect of the sanctions on the economic situation that “we aren’t saying that adopting the Security Council resolution is not affecting Iran’s economic situation, and on the other hand I am certain that with a more suitable policy perhaps we wouldn’t have reached this situation” [of sanctions against Iran]. (Sabz, June 24; DayPress, June 24)

11. The Chairman of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce and a senior conservative figure, Askar Awladi, said that the sanctions are causing increased expenses in Iran’s trade, but Iran is capable of circumventing them. (Sabz, July 1, Poolnews)

12. A member of the German Bundestag on behalf of the FDP (liberals), Rainer Stinner, said after returning from a meeting in Teheran (Aug. 9) that representatives of the regime and members of the Majlis whom he met expressed concern that the sanctions might have a significant effect on Iran’s exports and imports (AP, Aug. 9).


Reformist elements headed by the opposition movement leader, Musawi, are pointing an accusatory finger at the government as being responsible for the situation, and are declaring that the sanctions, which resulted from the regime’s unsuccessful policy, are having a real impact on Iran’s economy.

1. Musawi directed criticism at the regime after the adoption of Security Council Resolution 1929, saying that “the resolution was imposed on the Iranian people because of the unsuccessful management and irrational policy.” Later, referring directly to Ahmadinejad’s statements, he said that “determining that this resolution is like a used Kleenex will not ease the distress stemming from the demagogic policy; it’s clear to me that the resolution will affect Iran’s economy and security.” He elaborated by saying that “this cruel resolution will lower the Gross Domestic Product, increase unemployment, cause distress to the people and increase the gap between them and other developing nations, especially neighboring countries.” He ended by imploring the government to inform the Iranian people of these ramifications.

2. Former Iranian president Khatami criticized the government policy that, according to him, bolsters and strengthens Iran’s enemies. At a meeting he held with Musawi, they declared that adopting “an ill-considered and foolhardy policy” that is viewed as an excuse to harm Iran’s interests and a blow to its national security, is unacceptable. (Sabz, July 6; AFP, June 16, July 7)


Other independent political figures also criticize the regime’s policy, which they claim led to the adoption of the Security Council resolution. Some of them even warned, before the resolution was passed, of the negative ramifications another decision by the Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran would have:

1. Dr. Salman Safavi, who is living in London (and his brother Rahim Safavi, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and currently the leader’s senior advisor), said that the West’s diplomatic victory in imposing sanctions against Iran is due to “basic weaknesses in the Iranian government’s present diplomatic system, which is not capable of protecting the Iranian people’s rights in a just and wise manner in the international arena.”

Later, in criticism directed against senior regime officials who made light of the sanctions’ effect on the Iranian economy, he emphasized that the sanctions are having “a serious effect” and are weakening Iran. “This is undoubtedly a great disaster that will afflict Iran’s oil, gas and petrochemical industries.” (Ilna, June 22; Fararu, June 30)

2. Sadegh Zibakalam, a senior lecturer at the University of Teheran and one of the most prominent intellectuals in Iran, expressed unusual criticism of the regime’s nuclear policy. He said, “I am sure that there is no need for an academic degree in economics to understand the destructive effect of the sanctions on Iran’s economy…Is the price that Iran is paying for enriching uranium worthwhile? What economic justification is there to produce nuclear fuel if it can be purchased at a cheaper price abroad? If we wanted to purchase (not manufacture) nuclear fuel, we surely would not be under sanctions…Maybe it’s about time to ask ourselves whether the very high price for the nuclear program was inevitable?” (Fararu, June 24)

3. Following the sanctions resolution, commentaries in the Iranian media are mushrooming, calling for different conduct. Thus, former Deputy Foreign Minister Sadeq Kharrazi claims in two articles published on the “Iran Diplomacy” website (Aug. 2) that a dialogue between Iran and the West is the only way to solve the conflict between them. Diplomacy is one of the basic challenges for Iran. On one hand is the illusory rhetoric being spun by some Iranian diplomats that has not achieved anything except a strategic failure, and on the other hand is the international community that is behaving unfairly in its dealings with Iran.

Comment: Imagine if Bush and then Obama went "all in" as they say in Vegas where we might be now? Imagine if the West had rallied together for a period of time, set aside the business as usual, set aside their avarice and put the secuirty of the countryat center stage.

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