Assad's fate is sealed

Boaz Bismuth

There are two dates in history that sealed the political fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad: July 21, 1994, the day his brother, Basel, (who was then the apparent heir of their father, Hafez Assad) was killed in a car accident - a day that paved Bashar's way to the presidential palace; and March 15, 2011, the day the riots against his rule began. The second day also marked the beginning of the countdown to his political end. According to an interview on Wednesday with ABC's Barbara Walters, Assad thinks he no longer has any authority whatsoever over Syria and he is only filling his position as president in order to respond to the will of the people. And with regard to the army? Assad apparently does not decide or determine anything. Not so long ago, the late, ousted Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi said the same thing. Almost word for word. Assad's fate could be similar to Gadhafi's unless he finds refuge in Russia or Iran. It is all a question of time.

If his father, our old friend Hafez, would have said similar things in an interview with a Western television channel after the massacre against the Muslim Brotherhood in the Syrian city of Hama in February 1982, maybe the younger Assad's comments would have worked.

But those were other days, days that were politically and technologically different. At that time, the Arab street was subdued and news channels like Al-Jazeera, let alone social networks, did not yet exist. The Arab League was united behind its leaders, and the West did not dare intervene in the activities of someone who enjoyed Soviet patronage.

It was as if Assad's interview on Wednesday was derived from the 1980s. How ironic that the West initially embraced Assad upon his taking of office in the new millennium. He was supposed to lead Syria into modernity. But in his interview Wednesday, Assad looked not like his father's son, but more like Hafez Assad's twin brother.

Gadhafi also "played dumb" in front of an American reporter. He too was surprised by questions over his responsibility for the bloodshed in his country. He too believed he would come out of it unscathed.

Assad, truth be told, enjoys a higher degree of support from people within his own Alawite community. Not because they like him, but because they depend on him, or rather, on his continued rule. Despite international sanctions and isolation, Assad still has a list of friends around the world, including Algeria, Iraq Yemen, Lebanon, Iran, China and, of course, Russia.

On May 3, 2001, I met Assad at a press conference in Madrid. It was his first trip to the West as the new Syrian president. Whenever he was asked a question, he always seemed to look over at his entourage and his advisers. He looked like a foreigner in his country, like a foreigner in his palace. He looked like he did during his interview on Wednesday.

It is hard to determine which date Assad curses more before he goes to sleep every night: July 1994 or March 2011. Both have sealed his fate.