Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Hamas reconfigures engagement with Syria‏

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/edf7dbc4-23fa-11e1-bbe6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1gSciEGU2

As the Syrian regime battles to contain an escalating uprising, one of Bashar al-Assad’s traditional allies is quietly scaling down both its support and its physical presence in Damascus.

For the Islamist Hamas movement, the bloodshed and violence in Syria present a troubling challenge just as its political fortunes elsewhere in the region are on the rise. In the Gaza Strip, which Hamas has ruled since 2007, the group looks stronger and more secure than ever. The Middle East uprisings have strengthened Islamist movements across the region, allowing Hamas leaders to dream of an arc of friendly governments stretching from Morocco all the way to their Gaza stronghold. n Damascus, however, Hamas is feeling the pressure. The Syrian capital has been the seat of the movement’s political bureau and the nerve-centre of its regional operations for more than a decade. Now it feels increasingly unsafe.

The Syrian leader is outraged that Hamas, a movement he has sponsored and nurtured for years, is refusing to back his regime against the uprising that started earlier this year. Relations are reportedly at breaking point.

Fearful of retribution, and alarmed by the collapse of order, Hamas has evacuated many of its lower-level officials from Syria. “We feel that the situation is very dangerous for Hamas in Syria,” admitted one Gaza-based Hamas official. “They [the Assad regime] are very angry with us, they want us to give support just like Hizbollah [the Lebanese Shia movement] did. But this is impossible for Hamas. The Syrian regime is killing its own people.”

Hamas leaders are keenly aware it can be dangerous to pick the wrong side. “No one wants to make the mistake that [former Palestinian leader Yassir] Arafat made in Kuwait,” said Mostafa Alsawaf, the editor of Alresalah, a pro-Hamas newspaper in the Gaza Strip.

Arafat backed Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1991, and after Iraq’s defeat Kuwait took revenge by expelling some 450,000 Palestinian expatriate workers. Syria is home to about 500,000 Palestinian refugees and their descendants – a potentially huge target for retribution.

Diplomats say Hamas emissaries have been putting out feelers across the region in case they need to relocate quickly. However, most officials and analysts believe reports of an impending move to Qatar or Egypt are premature.

“They haven’t yet secured an alternative base,” says one western diplomat. “The expectation is that they will dribble out and try to secure fallback locations in a number of countries. But I don’t think Syria is a lost cause for them.”

It is also far from clear that the Hamas political bureau would be welcome elsewhere. Qatar has been friendly to the movement for many years but the emirate may balk at hosting the headquarters of a group regarded as a terrorist entity by the US and Europe. “Qatar can receive Hamas as individuals but not as a group,” said the Gaza-based Hamas official.

In Egypt, the group would almost certainly be the target of close scrutiny by the country’s intelligence service and could find itself more constrained than at present.

One particular issue for Hamas, which depends on funding and arms supplies from Iran, is how a move to Cairo would affect its ties with Tehran. “We have a lot of information about Hamas trying to put down roots in Egypt,” said one Israeli official. “But it is not happening as easily as one might think.”

Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas official in Gaza, said that despite the challenge in Syria, the changes sweeping the region were a huge boost to the movement: “We feel the whole area is changing and we are starting to see the sun after many years of darkness.”

It would take time for countries such as Egypt to “arrange their internal situation”, he said, but added that he had no doubt Gaza’s southern neighbour was becoming a more friendly place for Hamas.

Another crucial prize Hama hopes to win is a gradual defrosting of its relationship with the west. Now that the US and Europe are coming to terms with the rise of Islamist parties in countries such as Egypt and Tunisia, Hamas leaders are counting on a change in attitude towards their movement. After all, said Mr Hamad, “we are the same family, the same ideology”.

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