Monday, December 12, 2011

'Syrian WMD a concern if Assad falls,' says ex-Mossad chief


Efraim Halevy warns that Assad's ouster may result in the spillover of unconventional weapons to rogue elements in the Middle East • Former Mossad chief's warning contradicts earlier comments by Defense Minister Ehud Barak that the Syrian president's fall would be a blessing for the region • Quartet envoys to discuss resumption of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks during visit to region on Wednesday.

Shlomo Cesana, Lilach Shoval, Israel Hayom Staff and News Agencies


The ongoing popular unrest in Syria may result in the possible spillover of unconventional weapons to dangerous, or even rogue elements in the Middle East, former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy warned on Monday. In an interview with Army Radio, Halevy said that the most critical factor to watch now in Syria is "how and under what circumstances [Syrian President] Bashar Assad leaves his post."

"Syria is not just an Iranian ally, and not just a state that borders Israel. It has unconventional warfare capabilities," Halevy stressed. "There are very important questions that carry a lot of problems with them: Who will take over after the regime in Damascus is toppled, and will things be stable in the immediate aftermath of Assad's departure?"

The former Mossad chief also questioned whether "the Syrian military, in its current form, will be able to weather the storm. In the face of turbulence in Egypt, the Egyptian military remained standing as it was a stabilizing force in the country and it was not adversely affected by the battle [between the government and the people]. It was the one which threw Mubarak under the bus to realize its own potential.

"If the military crumbles following Assad's fall, it is anyone's guess as to what will happen," Halevi said, warning that "there are more than a few reports on very advanced Libyan weapon systems arriving in strategically situated areas."

Halevi's warning that Assad's downfall could be dangerous for Israel contradicts comments made Sunday by Defense Minister Ehud Barak who said the fall of the Assad family would be a "blessing" for the Middle East.

"Something is wrong with [the Assad] family, the way they suppress the will of the Syrian people, killing them, slaughtering their own people," Barak said during a speech at the World Policy Conference in Vienna.

The annual conference aims to bring together policy makers from different sectors to debate some of the world's more pressing concerns in an attempt to advance solutions.

"They are going to disappear, probably in a few weeks ... The falling down of this family is a blessing for the Middle East," he said.

Assad's forces have used brutal force to crack down on a revolt that began in March with peaceful protests but has since become increasingly violent. Army deserters are now engaged in street battles with state security forces and there is looming potential for civil war.

The way the situation develops "is beyond our control ... we don't think we have to intervene in any way," Barak said.

He said Israel might at some stage have to "take more assertive action" in Gaza, where Palestinian militants responded with rocket attacks on Israel after an Israeli air strike killed two militants last Thursday.

Turning to Iran, the defense minister urged the world to apply "paralyzing" sanctions on the Islamic regime's energy sector and leadership, but did not comment about whether Israel is ready to strike Tehran to cripple its alleged efforts to make nuclear arms.

Adding to Iran's burden of already existing U.N. and national sanctions, the U.S. and the European community have been tightening the net of economic punishments targeting Tehran in recent weeks.

The EU recently imposed sanctions on nearly 150 Iranian companies and dozens of individuals and is examining the feasibility of additional measures that could include restrictions on oil imports and gasoline exports to and from Iran.

Barak warned during the conference that an Iran with nuclear weapons "will start the countdown toward a terrible vision," of other nations in the region — and terrorist groups like Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon — acquiring their own arsenals.

The defense minister avoided mentioning the military option, telling the audience he thinks it is "time for urgent, coherent, paralyzing" punitive steps targeting Iranian oil trade and its central bank.

"Nothing short of this kind of sanctions will work," Barak said, adding there was a need for a "direct attack, isolation, by the whole world" of Iran's central bank.

He also said he would "love to see the Arab Spring jumping over" the Gulf into Iran, referring to political upheaval in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and elsewhere over the last year.

"This regime in Iran, the ayatollahs, they will be not be there I believe in 10 or 15 years. It is against the nature of the Iranian people and what happens all around the world.

But if they turn nuclear they might assure another layer of immunity, political immunity for the regime in the same way that Kim Jong-Il assured his," Barak said, referring to the North Korean leader and that country's development of nuclear weapons.

Barak and Turkish President Abdullah Gul were the most prominent guests at the conference and they appeared to steer clear of each other, reflecting tensions between their nations.

Turkish media reported that Gul stayed away from the group photo session before the conference to avoid Barak.

In response, Barak walked out of the hall as Gul prepared to make his speech on Friday. Gul then boycotted the dinner given by the Austrian president to avoid Barak again, opting instead to attend prayers at a mosque in Vienna.

Barak acknowledged the two nations remain unable "to iron out" their differences.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Forum of Eight senior ministers convened on Sunday to discuss the recent round of rocket fire from Gaza into Israel.

Over the weekend, Palestinian terrorists in Gaza fired more than 20 rockets into southern Israeli communities. The rockets caused no injuries and landed mostly in open areas, according to the Israel Defense Forces spokesperson.

While Barak was not present at the meeting, he commented on the escalation in the south during his speech in Vienna, saying "Israel will protect its citizens and will not let this situation continue. [Former Prime Minister] Ariel Sharon evacuated the Gaza Strip until the very last soldier and citizen so as not to provide any excuses for the Palestinians."

On Wednesday, the Quartet of the EU, U.S., Russia and the U.N. is expected to meet to discuss the resumption of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Commenting on peace talks between the two sides in Vienna, Barak said, "We are ready to begin direct negotiations without preconditions at any time the Palestinians choose. History has proven that Israel has always aspired to enter into negotiations but unfortunately the Palestinians have preferred, time and again, to avoid making decisions. I believe that Israel and the Palestinians must move quickly towards a political settlement."

Mark Regev, a spokesman for Netanyahu, said on Sunday that Israel had renewed an offer to hold direct talks with the Palestinians ahead of Wednesday's visit by Quartet envoys.

Peace talks stalled a year ago in a dispute over the building of Jewish settlements in territory Israel captured in a 1967 war, which Palestinians seek for a state.

Regev said Israel had urged that the coming Quartet visit be accompanied by a direct meeting of Israelis and Palestinians. But he said Israel has learned that senior Palestinian official and veteran negotiator Saeb Erekat "has refused."

"We are disappointed," Regev said in remarks by telephone, calling it "frustrating that the Palestinian side repeatedly refuses to engage in peace talks directly with Israel."

Last month Erekat told reporters that Quartet efforts to resume the negotiations had failed and that he held Israel responsible.

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