Israelis went to sleep last night
thinking that we were on the cusp of an election campaign, and woke up this
morning to the news that overnight Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had forged
a unity government deal with Shaul Mofaz, head of the Kadima party.
Credit:
TimesofIsrael
The first of three required
readings in the Knesset for legislation was done yesterday regarding the
dissolving of the Knesset -- but the other two readings were blocked so
that the 18th Knesset still stands.
~~~~~~~~~~
Whether truly happy about it or
not, both Shas and Yisrael Beitenu (major parties in the coalition) signed off
on this. As did the Likud faction, which signed the coalition agreement
with Kadima; MK Danny Danon voted against it.
This move establishes the largest
coalition in Israel's history: 94 members, consisting of seven
parties: Likud, Kadima, Yisrael Beitenu, Shas, Independence (Barak's break-off
from Labor), United Torah Judaism, and Habayit Hayehudit.
Mofaz is pledged to
seeing this through until the end of the term of the current
administration -- that is, October 2013, when elections are scheduled to
take place.
Likud and Kadima, in their
agreement, have committed to working on "changes in the system of election and
governance." That such changes are sorely needed is clear, but whether this
will evolve as a good thing remains to be seen, as
proposals evolve.
Also agreed upon was work on
the replacement for the Tal Law -- i.e., establishment of a law that
will provide an "egalitarian and fair" system for having all
parts of the population share responsibility for IDF service. There is to be a
gradual increase in the enlistment of the hareidi -- ultra-Orthodox --
community, but it is unclear as to whether there will be an option for
alternative national service. Kadima will head the effort to draft this
legislation.
~~~~~~~~~~
This was a brilliant move for
Mofaz, whose party was definitely on its way out -- with polls showing a serious
loss in seats, were an election to be held soon.
Mofaz is now a Deputy Prime
Minister, and Kadima will be chairing the Knesset Finance Committee. What
undoubtedly is very important to him, as well, is his role in crafting the
replacement for the Tal Law.
~~~~~~~~~~
It is being said in some quarters
that it was also a brilliant move by Netanyahu. Brilliant or slippery
or just plain sneaky. Depends on whom you ask. My vote is still out,
depending on how he now utilizes this situation. But I confess
unease.
What Netanyahu has gained is the
upper hand over elements who were challenging him. There is Lieberman,
who, while still in the coalition, no longer has any clout: He cannot
threaten to bring down the government.
And there is the right,
nationalist flank of the Likud party. Netanyahu saw at the Likud
Central Committee Convention that he was not solidly in control. This, in
particular, distresses me. That increased nationalist control in the party
was a democratic process.
Netanyahu has certainly secured
increased government stability, and greater maneuverability.
~~~~~~~~~~
One of the big losers in this
move is the Labor party, which was slated, according to the polls, to gain
enormously in the September election, so that it would have been a force to
contend with; party chair Shelly Yachimovich is livid about what she
considers to be an underhanded deal.
But from where I sit this is perhaps a positive with regard to Netanyahu's current move: Had there been elections, Labor might well have ended up as part of a new coalition -- and Labor is well to the left of what is supposed to be a centrist Kadima.
Also losing out here is Yair Lapid and his brand-new party, Yesh Atid,
which is quite likely to fizzle before elections take place in some 18
months. Naftali Bennett, a one-time chief of staff for Netanyahu,
had been talking about starting a new nationalist party, and this will also
likely become moot as well.
~~~~~~~~~~
A bit of background here about Mofaz and Kadima:
At the time of the last elections, Kadima actually secured one more mandate
than Likud (28 - 27). But Tzipi Livni, who then headed the party, was not able
to stitch together a coalition; thus did it fall to Likud and Netanyahu.
Livni absolutely declined to join a unity government; there was enormous
enmity between her and Netanyahu.
Over a period of time, there were rumors floating regarding the fact
that a faction of Kadima that was more rightist was going to move over to
Likud. That never materialized, but Mofaz was one of those about whom this
was said -- that is, he was seen to be to the right within Kadima. This
may be relevant now.
~~~~~~~~~~
Shaul Mofaz does not have a reputation as a straight player with
integrity -- but as a political pragmatist who plays fast and loose with
words. When Ariel Sharon first broke off the Kadima party from Likud,
Mofaz had written a letter to members of Likud declaring that he would never
leave the party; a day later he moved over to Kadima.
This is relevant now because questions are being asked about how much of
what he says can be trusted.
In one regard there is a clear dissonance between his recent words and
his current behavior: Just days ago -- as head of the opposition with a
national election pending -- he was criticizing Netanyahu as unfit to be
prime minister. While before the Kadima primary, he had written:
"Listen up: I won't join Bibi's government. Not today, not tomorrow and not
after I head Kadima on March 28. This is a bad and failed government and Kadima
under my leadership will replace it in the next elections. Is that clear
enough?"
And now he has signed on with him. Yachimovich is making a good deal of this.
And now he has signed on with him. Yachimovich is making a good deal of this.
The fact that he may not mean what he says (perhaps more so than most
politicians) makes it difficult to predict where he will fall with regard to
certain policies in this new unity government.
~~~~~~~~~~
It is only weeks ago that Mofaz soundly defeated Livni for the position of
head of the party, in a Kadima primary. He was formerly IDF chief of
staff, and served as Minister of Defense under Sharon.
~~~~~~~~~~
So when we finish discussing the benefits of this to Netanyahu and Mofaz,
where does this leave the nation?
No election now. Greater stability. The strength of the new
unity coalition makes it more possible for Netanyahu to deal with Obama with
strength. All to the good -- if there is intention to stand up to
Obama.
Aside from the questions of reform in government and the Tal law
replacement, I see two major issues, and I cannot at this point predict how they
will play out.
The first is Iran. Netanyahu is in a stronger position to take on
Iran with the more solid coalition. It is well known here that he is in
favor of doing so, in fact believes it necessary to do so. The question
now is what has transpired in this regard in his arrangements with Mofaz.
Mofaz recently came out against attacking Iran. But that was when
he was playing as the opposition -- taking stands contrary to what
Netanyahu stood for. What is truly his position? He speaks about
security for Israel a great deal. Will he cooperate with Netanyahu when
push comes to shove on this?
A good deal is made of the fact that he is the only member of the
government who was born in Iran.
~~~~~~~~~~
The other issue of importance is "the peace process" and the
government stance on defending Israel's right to build in Judea and
Samaria. It is here, perhaps, that I am most unsettled. For the
nationalist wing of Likud has been sidelined to some degree, and someone further
to the left -- whether identified as centrist or not -- has been brought
in.
There is talk about how negotiations with the Palestinian Arabs can proceed
more effectively with Mofaz in his current position -- this is certainly
something Mofaz himself refers to. And I want to know what this means, as
we lack a "peace partner." Doesn't matter who sits in the government if
the other side has destructive intentions.
Are we talking about more concessions? Are we looking at a refusal to
acknowledge Jewish rights to the land? Rhetorical questions,
perhaps. And prospects that bring unease.
The issue of how much Mofaz is committed to Israel's security will play
into matters here. As will Netanyahu's intentions, of course.
The PA is already saying that, with the new unity government, settlements
should be frozen immediately. How Netanyahu responds will give us our
first clue as to what we might expect.
Theoretically, it is possible that there was a trade-off with respect to
this -- with Mofaz getting a reprieve for his party and a chance to manage
the Tal law replacement in return for not pushing on this issue.
And it is conceivable that a failure to bring even a tentative "deal" while
there is a new "pro-peace" element in the government will ultimately
highlight to the world where the failure of good intentions lies.
All theoretically possible. It should only be. But I'm not holding my
breath.
~~~~~~~~~~
Obviously, all of this must be tracked carefully over time. But
at this moment in time, there is the burning issue of Givat Ha'Ulpana -- the
Ulpana neighborhood of Beit El.
Yesterday, a ruling was announced from the High Court with regard to
the government petition in late April that more time be given before the
dismantlement of Ulpana that was supposed to take place by May 1, so that a new
policy might be developed.
The Court has now said Ulpana has to be dismantled by July 1.
This was confusing to many, including yours truly. What I have learned is
that the government requested the opportunity to review policy, but the Court
had not accepted the validity of that request -- it said, OK, take two more
months, but take Ulpana down. The "two more months" was not a concession
with regard to reviewing policy -- as many had assumed. (Today's
announcement, I've been told, was just a reiteration of what had already been
decided.)
And so now there is only one hope for Ulpana: legislation. There has
been talk of this. I've written about this on more than one
occasion. In fact, there was concern that the dissolving of the Knesset
would not have given time for this legislation to go through.
Now there is time. The sole issue is one of intent of the government
in its new formulation.
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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