RYAN MAURO
May 16, 2012
The Iranian regime believes what it says and can achieve its stated objectives. That's the blunt truth that few can accept.
To determine Iran's strategy, we must determine its goals and
ideology. President Ahmadinejad consistently states that he acts in
order to "hasten the arrival" of the Mahdi, also called the Hidden Imam,
who is to appear during the End Times to bring victory over the enemies
of Islam. Since at least July 2010, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei
has been telling his inner circle that he has met the Mahdi, who promised him an imminent return.
A number of voices opposed to a potential Israeli strike on Iran's
nuclear facilities reassure us that the regime is a rational actor and
we should not take this rhetoric seriously. Former Mossad director Meir
Dagan went so far as to say Iran is "very rational." The statement made headlines
but their simplicity is misleading. Dagan actually said that Iran is
"not exactly our rational." What Dagan likely meant is that the regime
weighs costs and benefits. It rationally pursues goals that we'd
consider irrational.
Eight Christian leaders are among those
that want the U.S. to embrace a policy of containment towards a
nuclear-armed Iran. On March 5, the director of the Presbyterian Church
(USA)'s Office of Public Witness co-wrote a letter to Congress, urging
that resolutions ruling out such a policy be shot down.
It said the resolutions "sets a dangerously low threshold for war" and compares Iran to the Soviet Union.
A little-noticed documentary titled "The Coming is Upon Us" was produced by Ahmadinejad's office last year and it lays out the regime's beliefs and planned path forward, much like Mein Kampf
did. And it debunks the notion that the U.S.S.R. and the Iranian regime
are equivalent. The film makes the case that the regime's leaders are
the incarnations of specific End Times figures foretold in Islamic
eschatology.
Iran is the "nation from the East" that paves the way for the Mahdi's
appearance. Supreme Leader Khamenei is Seyed Khorasani, "the preparer"
who comes from Khorasan Province with a black flag and a distinct
feature in his right hand. Khamenei's right hand is paralyzed from an
assassination attempt. Khorasani's commander-in-chief is Shoeib-Ebne
Saleh, who the film says is President Ahmadinejad. Hezbollah chief
Hassan Nasrallah is the incarnation of Yamani, a commander with a Yemeni
ancestry who leads the Mahdi's army into Mecca.
These three "preparers" wage war against the Antichrist and "the
Imposters"-the U.S., Israel and the West's Arab allies. The film also
mentions that a figure named Sofiani will side with Islam's enemies.
Former Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer Reza Kahlili, who leaked the
film, told me that the full-length version identifies him as Jordanian
King Abdullah II.
The film lists various End Times prophecies that have been fulfilled
to argue that the Mahdi's appearance is near. The 1979 Islamic
Revolution in Iran; the invasion of Iraq from the south and subsequent
sectarian violence and death of Saddam Hussein; the Houthi rebellion in
Yemen; the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the increasing
amount of open homosexuality, cross-dressing, adultery and women taking
off the hijab are correlated to specific Islamic prophecies.
There are two signs yet to be fulfilled that will trigger the final
grand conflict that the Mahdi will intervene during: An Arab coalition
is to unite and rid itself of foreign influence and Saudi King Abdullah,
who is 87 years old, is to die. The Muslim Brotherhood's rise is
fulfilling the first prophecy,the film says.
The speakers state that Islamic prophecy talks of the Bani Abbas
Dynasty ruling modern-day Saudi Arabia during the End Times, which is
the Saudi Royal Family. The prophecy is that this dynasty will be ruled
by someone named Abdullah, whose death will lead to internal turmoil
right before the Mahdi's appearance. It notes that no one named Abdullah
has ruled there in the past 100 years.
"For about 10 minutes [in the full-length film], the video lists the
names of clerics, including very influential ones like Ayatollah Haeri
Shirazi and former Revolutionary Guards chief commander Seyed Yahya
Safavi, who affirm their belief that Khamenei is Seyed Khorasani. This
isn't propaganda, the regime really believes it," Kahlili told me.
The Iranian regime has a realistic strategy to dominate the Middle
East and lead an Arab coalition in taking Jerusalem--the two tasks that
will, in its mind, trigger the Mahdi's appearance.
Iran is wisely perfecting all elements of a nuclear-armed missile
before creating a bomb. It is working on the nuclear triggering
mechanism, a deliverable warhead and is accumulating the supplies and
infrastructure necessary to quickly produce an arsenal. Almost
everything besides actually putting together a bomb is permitted under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Under Article 10, Iran can announce that it is withdrawing from the
treaty in 90 days because of a security threat. Ironically, an Israeli
strike could be used as that pretext. Iran could declare that it didn't
intend to build nukes, but Israel's actions now force it to. Of course,
Iran could just ignore its treaty obligations altogether.
Ayatollah Khamenei's anti-nuke fatwa is conditional and, as Amer Taheri explains, it's never even been published in its entirety. There can easily be an escape clause we don't know about, if the fatwa even exists in the first place. In 2009, Ahmadinejad left the door open to building nukes if the security of his country requires it. Some Iranian clerics and officials are already giving religious justifications for becoming nuclear-armed.
It is wishful thinking to believe that the pro-American Arab states
can contain Iran. The governments are already insecure in the wake of
the Arab Spring and, in what the Iranians surely see as an act of
providence, the Shiites in the Sunni-ruled Arab countries are perfectly
positioned to seize the region's oil supplies. Take a look at the map
produced by Mark Langfan to see
how easily Iran can take effective control of about 56% of the world's
oil reserves. About 90% of Saudi Arabia's oil is located in its
Shiite-populated Eastern Province. Bahrain is a majority-Shiite state.
The oil-rich areas of southern Iraq are in the midst of a Shiite
population. Iran can carve out enclaves in these areas through proxies
or force the Arab countries to capitulate by stirring up discontent.
If Iran controls the oil and has nuclear weapons capabilities, it is
hard to see how the international sanctions and agreements to reduce
imports of Iranian oil survive. The European and Asian countries were
slow to get on board in the first place. Increasing oil prices, the
temptation to accept Iran after it acquires nuclear capability and the
political power of the growing Muslim population in Europe will test
these countries' commitments.
The key question is how Iran plans to retake Jerusalem and destroy
Israel once Saudi King Abdullah dies and this Arab coalition has been
assembled. An all-out war is an option. After all, former Iranian
President Rafsanjani said
in December 2001 that "the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel
will destroy everything. However, it will only harm the Islamic world.
It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality." But another
option exists: Asymmetric warfare carried out with the protection of a
nuclear shield.
President Ahmadinejad recently said
that "the destruction of the Zionist regime does not necessitate making
war. If countries of the region cut ties with the Zionists and give
them dirty looks, it will spell the end of this puppet regime." A
regional coalition could isolate Israel and sponsor countless terrorist
attacks that wreck the economy and weaken it to the point where direct
warfare becomes a viable option. The U.S. could militarily intervene in a
conventional war but the U.S. is unlikely to get involved if it is
asymmetric, especially if Iran has nuclear weapons.
Iran has been simulating the use of an Electro-Magnetic Pulse. This
is the detonation of a nuclear weapon in the atmosphere that destroys
electronic components over an extremely long distance. An EMP attack
would instantly disable the U.S.,
bringing the country back to the 1800s. It would be far easier for Iran
to do the same to Israel. It is easy to envision millions of
martyrdom-seekers pouncing at the opportunity to take part in, what they
feel, is a prophetic event.
When you consider the Arab Spring, the region's oil fields' proximity
to Shiite populations, the inability to stop Iran's nuclear program and
the EMP technology, you can see why the Iranian regime believes it owns
the future. Unfortunately, the West dismisses the proclaimed goals of
the regime as meaningless bravado that, even if it is genuine, could
never come to pass.
The Iranian regime's religious beliefs may be crazy but it isn't crazy for thinking it can win.
This article was sponsored by the Institute on Religion and Democracy.
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