Israel and Hamas have
entered the familiar tailspin of escalating hostilities, which on Monday
evening seemed inevitable. While the Egyptians made a sizable effort to
reduce tensions between the sides, actions on the ground delivered a
different message: A drastic increase in the number of rockets fired at
Israel from Gaza, and a similar uptick in the scope of Israeli
airstrikes.
The pundits and experts
are divided over what led Hamas to escalate matters. There appears to
be a combination of desperation, whether strategic (international
isolation and the Egyptian siege), political (the unity government has
struggled to function and Hamas has not paid salaries to tens of
thousands of civil servants), operational (the failed abduction of the
three teens and the severe damage to its West Bank infrastructure), and
possibly even personal (the rifts between Hamas' political and military
wings in Gaza).
Above all else,
however, the deciding factor for Hamas on Monday was a separate
incident: The explosion inside an underground tunnel in southern Gaza.
The tunnel, which was supposed to be used in an attack, had been dug for
quite some time with an opening on the Israeli side of the border, from
where terrorists would abduct soldiers and use them as bargaining
chips. Out of concern that Hamas, amid the current escalation, would
utilize the tunnel in the immediate future, Israel attacked it from the
air overnight Saturday and partially damaged it. On Sunday night, Hamas
operatives entered the tunnel, possibly to gauge the extent of the
damage or to booby-trap it against Israeli troops. During this activity,
their explosives detonated and seven Hamas operatives perished.
This blow, compounded
by its failures on other fronts, is what compelled Hamas to fire rockets
at multiple regions in southern Israel. Unlike the rocket fire from the
previous three weeks, this time Hamas openly led the campaign and even
encouraged operatives from other terrorist groups to take similar
action.
In response ,the
cabinet decided on a phased operation: As long as Hamas increases its
activity, the Israel Defense Forces will respond in kind -- in the scope
and quality of the targets. At this stage, Israel has intentionally
avoided targeting senior Palestinian leaders so as not to escalate the
fighting to a greater degree, although this measure would be considered
if the Palestinians were to expand their rocket offensive.
As of Monday night, a
ground operation was still not on the table. The reservist call-up has
been limited to reinforcing support units (primarily belonging to the
Homefront Command) and the Israeli Air Force (mostly to man Iron Dome
batteries). While it is reasonable to expect the IDF to present images
in the coming days of tank maneuvers around the Gaza Strip -- indeed
some tank and infantry units have been deployed there -- it will be done
primarily as a threat and deterrent.
Indirect talks
Despite the public and
political outrage and the demand for a larger response, Israel has no
intention at present to embark on a comprehensive operation in Gaza.
Evidence of this can be found in the continued indirect talks with
Hamas, mediated by Egypt, meant to facilitate a de-escalation despite
the recent hostilities. At the moment it appears hopeless, and the
thrust of effort is geared toward restricting the range of the rockets
to within 40 kilometers (25 miles). Thus far Hamas has been careful not
to shoot at Gush Dan in central Israel, but this could change if the
Palestinians suffer more casualties in Israeli airstrikes.
The casualties on the Israeli
side could also substantially influence the government's decision-making
process and the IDF's range of options, which is why the Homefront
Command and local authorities on Monday beseeched the public to heed
safety instructions (which do save lives). Meanwhile, the IDF has
finished deploying its Iron Dome batteries, which are supposed to
minimize the threat to the home front.
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