Saturday, October 30, 2010

Israel Must Say “No” to the Peace Process, Sooner or Later

by Ted Belman

Israel must say “no” to extending the freeze formally or de facto.

Israel must also say “no” to the peace process sooner or later. Even if Israel continued to build and the PA was prepared to return to the peace process, Israel should refuse to negotiate unless of course she is prepared to swallow the deal the international community has in store for her. According to FM Avigdor Leiberman,

“During my recent visit to the US I learned that Washington is planning to force a permanent agreement on Israel – two states for two peoples along the 1967 borders, plus-minus 3 or 4% of the territory exchanged,” Lieberman said. “This is the objective of a continued freeze – to give the US and the international community two months to come up with a solution that will be forced on Israel.”

Such a deal comes with the division of Jerusalem or with its internationalization.

Benny Avni writing in the NY POST under the title Peace Malpractice reported

“The offer to Abbas included (again, in writing) US acceptance that the border of the future Palestinian state should be based largely on the 1949 armistice lines — ignoring the new reality in the land Israel took in the defensive war of 1967, where there are now large Jewish settlement blocs”.

All the more reason to say “no”.

That is not to say that if she refused to enter negotiations with such a predetermined end, the international community would not impose their solution on her anyway, or at least, try to.

Israel must bite the bullet sooner or later. Either accept her fate at the hands of the international community, lead by the US, and get whatever goodies she can, or stand her ground. She must declare openly that she will not accept such a deal. No more hiding behind the need for security or the demand for recognition as a Jewish state. She must cut to the chase and refuse such a deal. No more pretending.

A very recent Israeli poll showed Israelis favored building and ending the freeze by a margin of 54/39. Of course anyone in favour of building is against the two state solution. Why build if you are going to give it away?

Those who want peace are placing too high a value on it, considering that it is likely to be ephemeral and too low a value on retaining Judea and Samaria which would be eternal.

So we are really back to the rejection of the two-state solution which was Netanyahu’s position before and during the last election. When Netanyahu was forming his government, it immediately became apparent that he was not to be trusted. He brought Dan Meridor, a left of center politician into Likud, rejected Moshe Feiglin and invited Labor to join the coalition. Netanyahu didn’t want to be controlled by the right and looked to diversify his government

Nevertheless, the pressure is building on Netanyahu to extend the freeze and he is saying we have a few days to decide. At the moment he is outnumbered and lacks Cabinet support for extending the freeze.

If he agrees to it without Cabinet support, the government will fall
The same poll also indicated that the public is shifting to the right. Kadima has picked up a seat but their combined total with Labor is projected at 36 seats against the total for Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu of 41. Last election it was about even.

So nothing is to be gained by bringing down the government. I talked to MK Danny Danon last week and he said that Likud has no intention of bring down the government. Instead he believed they could accomplish their ends by forcing Netanyahu to toe the line.

As far as encountering Obama’s wrath, there is not much to worry about. Obama has lost his support, his credibility and his political capital. After November 2nd it is entirely probable that he will have lost the Democratic House majority and possibly a Democratic Senate majority. So Netanyahu is getting stronger and Obama is getting weaker.

It is doubtful that Obama is ready to fight Congress on the matter of imposing a solution. He may want the Security Council to impose a solution except that he will have to decide whether to veto it or abstain. I don’t think he is ready for the fight.

Eighty-five percent of Republicans support Israel compared to fifty-five percent of Democrats who do. In addition, Republicans have a large Christian Zionist constituency that doesn’t want to see Jerusalem divided or Jews kicked out of the biblical heartland. Gov Sarah Palin, the current GOP leader, can be counted on to support Israel like no president has done to date.

The two-state solution is not a prescription for peace. It is a prescription for war. There is no viable alternative to a one state solution. And that state will be a Jewish state just as it is now, from the Mediterranean to the Jordan.. The only question is whether the Arabs living there will accept autonomy or whether they will opt for citizenship. But the latter will only be available subject to reasonable requirements such as, a loyalty oath, proficiency in Hebrew, and no ties to Hamas or other terrorist organization etc. Such a plan would take twenty years to complete to make sure the Arab hatred is detoxified. According to the latest demographic study, if Israel was to annex Judea and Samaria, Jewish residents would outnumber Arab residents 2:1 and Jewish citizens would outnumber Arab citizens 4:1 to start with. There is also a plan to financially induce them to leave. No refugees would be allowed back except for family reunification and the like. The international community would have to resettle them as it has with all other refugees.

Under such a solution, no one would be expelled from their homes, Jerusalem would remain undivided and open, borders would not have to be negotiated and Israel would remain in control of the borders and the skies. Gaza would have to fend for itself as it is doing now.

Sooner or later. Preferably sooner.

cross-posted from Israpundit.

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