Iconoclast:
Pinhas Inbari published this timely Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) brief on the issues and dramatis personae at the opening round of the Geneva II talks in Montreaux, Switzerland that began today.. We consider insightful Inbari’s analysis of the roiling seemingly intractable, inconclusive civil war in Syria now in its 35 month. Israel is concerned about what may arise from these fractious discussions given the presence of both Assad regime and Syrian opposition, including potenntially intrusive Al Qaeda-affiliates operating in the demilitarized zone on the Golan plateau.
Further, as Inbari points out in this brief, should , mirabile dictu, should an agreement be reached and a new government installed in Damascus are the be renwal of demands for return of the Golan, annexed by Israel in December 1981.
There have also been reports of both Israeli Arab Muslim extremists and Palestinians from Gaza joining those al Qaeda opposition militias in Syria. The Syrian Kurds have abiding concerns regarding attainment of possible hard fought regional autonomy that has apparently vanquished Al Qaeda militia thteatening their Rojava heartland in Syria’s North East.This post should assist you in identifying the contending parties, including the Islamic regime in Tehran and its proxy Hezbollah, whose presence at the meeting was considered unhelpful. vigorous objections raised by the Syrian opposition, the US, UK and others forced UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon to abruptly ‘disinvite’ the Iranian delegation from attending this session. Nevertheless, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who lauded the UN Secretary General’s invitation extended to Iran, may be both the assad regime;s and its Shiite hegemon’s diplomatic proxy auditing the proceedings for the Islamic Regime.
by
Pinhas Inbari
Vol. 14, No. 2 22 January 2014
* This report is based on telephone conversations with members of the Syrian opposition.
- The Geneva 2 peace conference was convened after an agreement between the United States and Russia that themain danger posed by the situation in Syria is that of al-Qaeda, and that the course of events should be steered in order to obviate this danger.
- The Syrian opposition sees a danger that the two powers will prefer to leave Assad in place since, if the choice is between him and al-Qaeda, then Assad is the better option.
- The powers’ need to convene the Geneva 2 conference stemmed primarily from the failure of the Free Syrian Army under General Idris to defeat Assad’s army and bring about regime change.
- Ironically, the success of the al-Qaeda groups against the Syrian army and the Free Syrian Army helped Russia convince the United States that, at least for the time being, Assad should be left standing. The result is that Assad’s loyalists will be in attendance at the conference.
- If the Syrian opposition has trouble accepting the presence of Assad loyalists at the peace conference, it cannot accept an Iranian presence at all. They say their real opponent on the Syrian battlefield is the Iranian army, and they view Iran as an invading country that is also deploying Hizbullah against them.
- Israel must pay attention to two possible outcomes: A Middle Eastern inter-bloc agreement may at some stage include the Palestinian issue. Another possible scenario may involve renewed pressure on Israel to give up the Golan Heights in order to “strengthen” the new Syrian government.
A U.S.-Russian Agreement
Geneva 2, the international peace conference on the future of
Syria, began on January 22, 2014, in Montreux, Switzerland. Sources in
the Syrian opposition say the conference has come about because of
agreement between the United States and Russia that the main danger
posed by the situation in Syria is that of al-Qaeda, and that the course
of events should be steered in order to obviate this danger.
This inter-bloc agreement has put most of the Syrian opposition
under great pressure. They see a danger that the two powers will
meanwhile prefer to leave Assad in place since, if the choice is between
him and al-Qaeda, then Assad is the better option.
The problem is that the opposition is very fragmented and the two
powers can force it to accept their dictates. On the issue of Geneva 2,
there indeed is such a dictate. Whereas, at first, the Syrian opposition
refused to participate in the conference with Assad loyalists, after
heavy pressure that included American threats to cease assistance to
them, much of the Syrian opposition acceded to the two powers’ demand
that they attend.
Who’s Who in the Syrian Opposition
What elements make up the Syrian opposition, what do they seek, and who stands behind them?
First, the Geneva conference will not represent the fighters on the
battlefield; neither the different al-Qaeda groups nor the Free Syrian
Army will be in attendance. Al-Qaeda will not be there because the talks
are aimed at counteracting it, and in any case al-Qaeda does not
ordinarily take part in gatherings of this kind. As for the Free Syrian
Army and its commander Salim Idris, they still are not prepared to sit
in the same room with Assad’s loyalists, though there are reports of
enormous pressure on Idris to attend.
Basically, however, the talks will be attended by parties that are not active on the Syrian battlefield. Who are they?
One large body, known as the National Coalition of Syrian and
Regional Forces (also called the Syrian National Coalition), will be
representing the opposition that is based outside of Syria. It is headed
by Ahmed al-Jarba, a scion of the leading families of the large Shammar
Bedouin tribe, which migrates among Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, and
is considered pro-Saudi. Saudi Arabia indeed supports this organization.
Another group within the “coalition” is the representative body of
the Syrian opposition before the “coalition” was formed. Called the
Syrian National Council (SNC), it includes the Muslim Brotherhood and
pan-Arab nationalists and is supported by Turkey and Qatar. Although it
is formally within the “coalition” framework, the competition between
Qatar and Saudi Arabia influences its relations with the coalition. All
this was evident when decisions had to be made on whether to attend
Geneva 2. After al-Jarba announced that he would go, his rivals in the
SNC declared that they would not. The reasons for al-Jarba’s decision
are not clear. Whereas one would have expected that, given the Saudis’
anger at Washington, the pro-Saudi faction would try to impede the
conference, the opposite is what happened. Sources in the Syrian
opposition said the Saudis did not want to bring tensions with the
United States out in the open, and perhaps also did not want to be
associated with al-Qaeda; instead the talks could always be undermined
from within.
Russia, too, has its favored groups, and there is no surprise in
the fact that they agreed to attend. These groups are old leftist
factions that were part of the Syrian Ba’ath party. Syrian opposition
sources point to the “Internal Opposition Group” headed by Kadri Jamil
and Ali Haidar, two veteran Ba’athists who abandoned Assad. Alongside
them is another group of veteran Arab nationalists headed by Haitham
Mana’a and Hassan Abd al-Azim, called the “Coordinated Administration,”
an array of coordinating committees for the rebels in the field. This
group maintains its independence and does not receive aid from any
party; it opposes Assad and will not attend Geneva 2.
The powers’ need to convene the Geneva 2 conference stemmed
primarily from the failure of the Free Syrian Army under General Idris
to defeat Assad’s army and bring about regime change. Instead, the
different al-Qaeda organizations have now prevailed in the local arena,
and not long ago they handed Idris a defeat near Aleppo, taking over his
main arms depot. The Free Syrian Army is also supported by Turkey and
Qatar.
Al-Qaeda Forces in Syria
Who are the al-Qaeda forces operating in Syria? There are about
forty groups with numerous names, but two are playing the main role on
the ground. One is the Al-Nusra group led by Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani;
the other is “Daash” – the Islamic State of Iraq and Ash-Sham (the
Levant), also called ISIS. Al-Nusra is made up of Syrian and Jordanian mujahideen, while the Syria and Iraq group has an Iraqi leadership.
Ironically, the success of the Salafi groups has worked in Assad’s
favor. He claimed from the start that he was not dealing with a
rebellion but with “terror,” and the al-Qaeda groups’ successes against
the Syrian army and the Free Syrian Army helped Russia convince the
United States that, at least for the time being, Assad should be left
standing. The result is that Assad’s loyalists will be in attendance at
the conference.
The opposition groups claim, however, that at least the ISIS
organization is actually in league with Assad. They say the al-Qaeda
fighters in this group were originally Syrian intelligence agents who
were infiltrated into Iraq to operate against U.S. forces there, and
after the revolt in Syria erupted, Assad’s intelligence service
implanted them among the rebels as a way of proving that the revolt is
nothing more than terror. These al-Qaeda groups have also acted against
the Free Syrian Army and diverted it from the anti-Assad struggle.
The Kurds of Syria
The Kurds of Syria are a special case. They, too, are fragmented
into many groups; among the leading ones is the Democratic Union Party
(PYD). A radical-left organization that is a twin sister of the Turkish
PKK, it is close to Assad’s Ba’ath regime and loyal to it. The Syrian
army was able to withdraw from Kurdish areas and concentrate its forces
against the rebels because the PYD managed Kurdish affairs on Syria’s
behalf. There are now reports that under the PYD’s “administrative
autonomy,” pictures of Assad have again appeared in the streets.
The PYD is opposed by the Yakiti party, which is close to Kurdnas –
a large coalition of Kurdish parties that triggered the Kurdish revolt
against Assad in the previous century. In contrast to the PYD’s radical
leftism, Yakiti and Kurdnas are pro-Western parties that advocate a
federal regime in Syria. The space between the PYD, at one end, and
Yakiti and Kurdnas, at the other, is filled by numerous other parties.
These, however, were concocted by Syrian intelligence as a means of
fragmenting the Kurds. One “real” group that is not an invention of
Syrian intelligence is the Azadi party.
All the Kurdish parties are demanding autonomy within the framework
of the Syrian state. The difference between them and the Sunni parties
(the Muslim Brotherhood, former Ba’athists, Arab nationalists) is that,
whereas the Kurdish groups call for a decentralized regime of autonomous
districts for the ethnic communities and minorities, most of the Sunnis
favor retaining the centralized regime in Damascus.
Whereas the Kurds demanded to come to Geneva 2 as a separate
delegation, the United States insisted that they attend as part of the
“coalition.” The Kurds refused and will not be at Geneva. They see the
U.S. refusal to recognize their separate delegation as stemming from its
support for a centralized Syrian regime even after Assad’s departure.
If the Syrian opposition has trouble accepting the presence of
Assad loyalists at the peace conference, it cannot accept an Iranian
presence at all. They say their real opponent on the Syrian battlefield
is the Iranian army, and they view Iran as an invading country that is
also deploying Hizbullah against them. Saudi Arabia, too, can barely
tolerate the Assad loyalists and rejects any Iranian role at the
conference altogether.
The Question of Assad’s Future
Regarding Assad’s future, while the first Geneva peace conference
in June 2012 came up with a plan for a temporary government and
elections for a new president, Assad insisted on his right to run in
these elections. Geneva 2, as well, will likely propose a temporary
government and elections while offering Assad an honorable departure
from political life in return for his physical survival. Whether such
elections can be held, however, is in doubt since forces on the ground
will reject any such plan.
Meanwhile, there are initial signs of a deal taking shape outside
the framework of the conference, in which Iran, Russia, and the United
States would agree on a new president while forcing Assad to acquiesce.
But such an initiative – if it takes shape at all – will have to wait
until Assad hands over all his chemical weapons.
Israel must pay attention to two matters. First, a Middle Eastern
inter-bloc agreement may at some stage include the Palestinian issue;
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will fly to Moscow to
clarify this option with the Russians. Israel must prepare for a
scenario where a new central government is established in Damascus and
the powers begin to pressure Israel to give up the Golan Heights in
order to “strengthen” the new Syrian government.
______________________________
About Pinhas Inbari
Pinhas Inbari is a veteran Arab affairs
correspondent who formerly reported for Israel Radio and Al Hamishmar
newspaper, and currently serves as an analyst for the Jerusalem Center
for Public Affairs.
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