Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Analysis: Mofaz Is Preparing for Prime Ministerial Race


Hillel Fendel

Transportation Minister Sha'ul Mofaz, remembered for insisting that he had no plans to leave the Likud just two days before he joined Kadima, is making no secret of his desire to become Prime Minister.Headlines in the Israeli media over the past three days read as follows: "Mofaz Sharply Attacks Livni," "Mofaz Attacks Barak for Gaza Policy," "Likud Activists Will Support Mofaz," "Mofaz Works With Shas to Prevent New Elections," and the like.

Mofaz is hoping to be chosen in Kadima primaries to succeed criminal investigation-beleaguered Ehud Olmert, without the need for new national elections. The Shas Party, however, has been threatening to bring down the government and cause new elections - on the backdrop of its demand for higher monthly child allowance payments. Shas has said it would support any candidate who promises to raise the allowances - and Mofaz has reportedly made this promise.

Mofaz's main competitor in the race for Kadima party leadership and the Prime Ministership is Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. Livni currently enjoys a significant lead over Mofaz among the 60,000 registered Kadima members. A joint Yediot Acharonot/Dachaf poll conducted late last week shows that 39% of the members would vote for Livni, while only 25% would choose Mofaz.

Mofaz in the Golan: It Must Remain Israeli
Though he denied any connection, Mofaz's visit to the Golan Heights Tuesday morning appears to be connected with his political ambitions. He made strong statements in favor of retaining the Golan, and even said that he was considering moving there with his family. "I have fought against the Syrians and I have talked with them," he said. "There is no need to jump every time the Syrians show some interest in talking with us."

Mofaz further said that the Golan should not be given to Syria, and that doing so means "having Iran in the Golan."

Assad Takes Tough Stance
Meanwhile, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad said the opposite: "We will never agree to compromise [and accept less than] the borders of 1967," he vowed during a visit to the United Arab Emirates this week. "In the framework of a peace agreement, Israel must be willing to return all Syrian land captured in 1967."

Assad said that this includes the entire Kinneret (Sea of Galilee): "Regarding water, there are international laws that govern this... But if that means that Syria must cede the condition it set - insistence on the 1967 borders all the way up to Tiberias [which lies on the eastern shore of the Kineret] - we will never agree to this."

Mofaz Against Livni and Barak
On Sunday, Mofaz had sharp words for Minister Livni and Labor Party leader Defense Minister Barak, saying their alliance "is liable to destroy Kadima... They won't teach us what honesty is." Mofaz, a former Defense Minister himself, also said that Barak's military policies in Gaza are wrong.

The Mofaz Zig-Zag
In December 2005, just hours after he called upon Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu to "join me in liquidating [a rival camp within] the Likud," and while a mass-mailing was underway asking Likud members to support his bid to lead the party, he phoned then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and informed him that he was leaving the Likud and joining Sharon's new Kadima party.

Just days earlier, he had criticized Kadima for the lack of unity displayed by the members' various opinions, and said that the politicians who switch from party to party "show a lack of stability and a lack of leadership."

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