Saturday, August 08, 2009

Israel: US last pressure on Israel is coming

Ira Sharkansky

Early reports about the Fatah convention at Bethlehem were complimentary. They described signs of a democracy in the gathering and discussions among two thousand delegates from the West Bank and the Palestinian Diaspora. A few even sneaked out of Gaza against Hamas efforts to keep them from leaving. Israel cooperated in letting some of the old timers pass through its border controls, despite having been involved in murders of civilians years past. Ahmed Tibi, MD, a brilliant and provocative Member of Israel's Knesset was one of the speakers. He gave full expression to his Palestinian nationalism and demanded that all (Jewish) settlers be removed from the land that becomes Palestine. It was not clear if he also meant the Sharkanskys and other Jewish residents of Jerusalem neighborhoods claimed by the Palestinians. Within hours there began a dispute among Jewish Members of Knesset as to whether Tibi ought to stand trial on the same law against racism that resulted in Meir Kahana being barred from Israeli politics.

The size and diversity of the convention became one of its problems. Older members from Lebanon and other distant places proved to be more intent on revenge and return, and less pragmatic than younger delegates who have lived alongside of Israel. Younger, in this context, means people in their 50s.

The older outsiders tied the hands of Mahmoud Abbas who seemed intent on getting resolutions in favor of flexibility, and they produced 14 preconditions for further negotiations with Israel. Among them are the cessation of settlements, the freeing of all Palestinian prisoners, and the lifting of the blockade on Gaza.

The convention also set up a committee to investigate the death of Yassir Arafat, headed by a nephew of Arafat convinced that Israelis killed him with poison or some other device.

Perhaps Barack Obama will applaud the convention's output, if for no other reason that Palestinians make him look moderate by comparison.

But not too moderate.

Ha'aretz is reporting that his minions are giving Israel two weeks to reach an agreement with them on settlements, and are demanding that Israel and Palestinians agree about final borders and refugees at an early stage in their negotiations.

One wonders if there is greater humor or sadness from the Palestinian convention or the American administration.

Or perhaps I am crazy, and everyone else has it right.

Political science is not a licensed profession, and my pension should be secure. I risk only what remains of my personal reputation by what comes next.

The Americans should bring the Palestinians to something reasonable before they pressure Israel. I have no illusions that anyone from the White House is reading this, or is ready for such a suggestion, but it does seem the most efficient way to begin. Or to quickly reach the conclusion that there is no mileage left in this vehicle, and that it would be best to leave Israel and the Palestinians to themselves.

Netanyahu may get to a grudging "Yes, but" to the American demands. The but will include his own conditions, similar to those we have heard. Americans will focus on the yes, as they behaved in the past, and overlook the but when accusing Israel of reneging on its agreements. (The Israeli government accepted the Bush roadmap some years ago, but added a number of reservations that the current administration ignores in its accusations.)

The Israeli government is also having trouble with one of its own. The Consul General in Boston sent a telegram to the Foreign Ministry complaining that Israeli policy is causing problems with American public opinion, especially on campuses. He also laments that American Jews feel themselves pressured between Obama's demands and Israeli reservations. The Consul himself, a friend or enemy in the Foreign Ministry leaked the telegram to the media. The Prime Minister's Office said that it did not warrant a response.

Someone should tell the Consul that he should expect problems with Harvard students and faculty, and that the Jews of Boston must cope with discomfort as best they can.

Alan Dershowitz is still with us, and he counts for more than the average.

The response of the Prime Minister's Office to Israel's Consul in Boston may signal that Netanyahu will not bow to American ultimatums. He has substantial Israeli support for resisting Obama, and that will count for more than Boston's Jews.

There will be more to this show to keep me interested, and the e-mail flowing.

As ever, I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address, below.

Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University
Jerusalem, Israel

Comment: I can confirm that the CG in Boston did NOT leak the telegram-it was someone else inside. Given this was a "secure" communication the question is who did this? The CG has been "invited" to return to Israel immediately-hey, a free ticket! This really is a rather severe situation and not professional-one's country's security should trump everything else! Will keep my readers posted-doc

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