Dangerous Stakes

LESLIE'S BLOG: STRENGTH AND TOLERANCE

Changing tacks following Turkey’s thus-far unsuccessful bid for EU membership, it seems that Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan is bidding for the leadership of the Muslim World instead. He reportedly bank-rolled the terrorist-associated IHH in buying the lead ship for breaking Israel’s blockage of Gaza, and certainly facilitated the inclusion, without passports and security checks, of 100-plus Islamist radicals on board. Israel’s blockade has been maintained to prevent Hamas—a group whose avowed and unabashed aim is the destruction of Israel from importing the inevitable thousands of rockets and tons of arms into Gaza. Over 10,000 missiles and mortars have been unleashed towards Israel since it pulled its soldiers and civilians out of the enclave and handed it over to its volatile population.

Though neither as consistent nor severe, Turkey itself is a well-known victim of terror. Nevertheless, the overly ambitious Erdogan is offering up Turkey’s former ally, Israel, as the sacrificial lamb in his dramatic play for Middle Eastern preeminence. He has already presided over the emasculation of his military brass through the largely invented Ergnekon, an elaborate secret plot by his opposition—with, of course, the Mossad’s help—to overthrow his increasingly Islamic government. Meanwhile, he is signaling his own willingness to employ the military by assembling forces at Turkey’s North Cypriot airbases. Deterioration toward war is not inconceivable, particularly with Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran as likely and willing allies. These are dangerous times, as Erdogan is ratcheting up his rhetoric and his threats, whipping up the Jackals and upping the ante.

And, after all, why shouldn’t he? The dominant spoilers in the region, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, consistently advocate for the destruction of Israel. Yet the world chooses to discount entirely their undiluted intent. The only democracy and defender of individual freedom, Western values and tolerance in the region is Israel, who just as consistently advocates for peace and attempts to achieve it. Yet, again, the world chooses to disbelieve these actions and intentions. In this upside-down world of Alice in the Middle East it seems that historical animus, deceitful propaganda, and amoral politics replaces all evidence.


ImageIn this context, Erdogan is likely entertaining 4 different ploys:

a) To support the one remaining ship from the last flotilla to sail and test again the Gaza blockade, on the presumption that Israel can’t afford, in the face of such vociferous and near universal condemnation, to once more board this boat and unleash further blowback. An international lynch mob in the making.

b) To engineer an even larger flotilla of ships sailing to Gaza, once again entrapping Israel in a violent confrontation, one where irrespective of the provocation, Israel only will be to blame, Israel will reap the world’s hypocrisy…not to mention the Muslim World’s energized animus. They sense Israel is on the mat and they are circling like vultures for the kill. Without doubt these ships will be liberally sprinkled with iron bars, knives, guns and assorted arms, with jihadists from Turkey and elsewhere and enough Western fellow travelers to embarrass Israel and ensure international sanctions should any of these citizens engineer their own martyrdom. They intend ambitiously to either to break the boycott and provide an unlimited arms, missile and terrorist channel to Gaza, or to line up—via a propaganda coup—the UN, Europe, Russia and the Muslim World in an powerful attempt to delegitimize Israel, bring down its government and weaken its spirit and its resolve.

c) To do the above, whilst Israel is in an indefensible position, but to ensure Turkish marines sail with the Flotilla, upping the ante, so that Israel is forced to either let the embargo evaporate, or to provoke the war for which Erdogen seems to be itching

d) To again do the above, but—upping the stakes even further and attempting to do powerful damage to Israel’s critical deterrence – he will send the Turkish navy to escort the flotilla to Gaza, a serious escalation from which Israel may indeed calculate it cannot back down.

These are, undoubtedly, ambitious and risky politics, politics which may result in many lives lost and the pushing back for decades of possibilities for peace. Yet we cannot ignore the machinations of this Turkish power broker. Teheran beware: it may yet lose it’s pre-eminence as the top Middle East dog. Netanyahu is forewarned – he will need to keep his wits about him, and his generals even closer.