Sunday, November 28, 2010

WikiLeaks: Israel-Related Cables

Aussie Dave

As expected, secret US embassy cables have been leaked by WikiLeaks, and the media and blogosphere is all over it.

Unfortunately, I do not have the luxury of time that many others seem to have. Nevertheless, using The Guardian’s search by country feature, I am attempting to summarize the Israel-related cables.

Note: This post is in the process of being updated.

US-embassy-cables

Thursday, 17 March 2005: Israel sees Iran’s uranium enrichment as ‘point of no return’ Summary: Israel urges international pressure on Tehran but worries US may move towards a less tough EU position. Israel is aware that it will be harder to destroy Iranian nuclear sites than it was Iraq’s reactor in 1981. Expects Iran to hit back at coalition forces in Iraq and the Gulf and launch terrorist attacks

Key Passage: Public speculation about possible military strikes usually focuses on the differences from the Israeli Air Force’s attack on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981. In private, GOI officials have acknowledged that several factors would make any attack against Iran a much more difficult mission. A senior military intelligence official told the Embassy that the GOI does not know where all of the targets are located and said that any attack would only delay, not end, the Iranian program.

Thursday, 17 March 2005: Mossad says US and Israel agree on Iran

Summary: Meir Dagan, the Mossad chief, tells US congressmen that the EU nuclear dialogue with Iran will fail. Israel believes Arab foreign fighters are returning from Iraq to their homes in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria and Sudan to start new insurgencies

Key Passage: Dagan stressed that it is similarities rather than differences that are at the heart of the GOI-U.S. intelligence relationship, particularly on Iran. The facts themselves are not in dispute, Dagan continued, adding that the U.S. and Israeli assessments of Iran’s intentions and plans are largely in accord. Iran has decided to go nuclear, Dagan said, and nothing will stop it. Dagan predicted that the EU dialogue with Iran will not succeed and that the issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions would eventually go to the UN Security Council.

Monday, 8 January 2007: Israeli optimism erodes in face of regional enemies

Summary: The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, briefed that the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, believed negotiations with Syria would be a trap as Damascus would use them to end international pressure on it and gain a freer hand in Lebanon. No negotiations would be possible until Syria reduced support for terrorism and/or took steps to secure the release of Israelis held by Hamas and Hezbollah.

Key Passage: Iran’s nuclear program continues to cause great anxiety in Israel. Given their history, Israelis across the political spectrum take very seriously Ahmadinejad’s threats to wipe Israel off the map. Olmert has been quite clear in his public comments that Israel cannot tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran, a position stated even more emphatically by opposition leader Netanyahu, who compares today’s Iran to Nazi Germany in 1938.

Wednesday, 2 January 2008: Egypt spy chief promises pressure on Hamas

Summary: General Omar Soliman, head of Egyptian intelligence, tells US ambassador that Cairo will keep up pressure on Palestinian Islamist movement. He sees Iran as a “significant threat” to Egypt and advises other Arab countries to keep their distance from it

Key Passage: The bottom line for Hamas, according to Soliman, is that they must be forced to choose between remaining a resistance movement or joining the political process. They cannot have it both ways, he said.

He continued that the GOE would keep pressure on Hamas but will maintain “low-level” contacts with Hamas. Egypt, he said, wants Hamas isolated. The Qassam rocket attacks must stop. When they do stop, the GOE will ask Israel to “meet quiet with quiet.”

Thursday, 23 October 2008: Iran abuses Iranian Red Crescent to send agents and weapons overseas

Summary: An Iranian with detailed knowledge of the country’s Red Crescent – the Islamic version of the Red Cross – says the government is using it as a cover for its agents in Iran, Lebanon and elsewhere around the Middle East, and to smuggle weapons. This is a serious allegation, in breach of Red Crescent’s strict neutrality.

Key Passage: The IRC again facilitated the entry of Qods force officers to Lebanon during the Israel-Hezbollah war in summer 2006.

Friday, 31 October 2008: Washington requests personal data on Hamas

Summary: A ‘national human intelligence collection directive’ on Palestinian issues sent from Washington to Middle East embassies calls for detailed information on the leaders of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, as well as the intelligence capabilities of the Palestinian secret services.

Key Passage: Details of travel plans such as routes and vehicles used by Palestinian Authority leaders and HAMAS members

Monday, 9 February 2009: Hillary Clinton woos prickly Egyptians

Summary: US secretary of state briefed by ambassador Margaret Scobie on key Arab ally, which feels it did not receive fair treatment from the Bush administration. President Hosni Mubarak told Senator George Mitchell that he did not oppose Washington talking with the Iranians, as long as “you don’t believe a word they say”.

Key Passage: The Egyptians have long felt that, at best, we take them for granted; and at worst, we deliberately ignore their advice while trying to force our point of view on them

Although the Egyptians will react well to overtures of respect and appreciation, Egypt is very often a stubborn and recalcitrant ally. In addition, Egypt’s self-perception as the “indispensable Arab state” is contingent on Egyptian effectiveness on regional issues, including Sudan, Lebanon, and Iraq.

Wednesday, 13 May 2009: Israel ‘can’t afford to be wrong about Iran’

Summary: Israel’s military intelligence chief, Major General Amos Yadlin, gives visiting US congressman the latest assessment of Iran’s nuclear intentions. “Israel is not in a position to underestimate Iran and be surprised like the US was on 11 September 2001,” he says.

Key Passage: Iran is in the position of wanting to pay only a minimum cost for its current program. It does not want to be North Korea or what Iraq was before 2003. Iran intends to keep resolutions and sanctions at a certain manageable level and continue to produce low enriched uranium until there is enough for several bombs. MG Yadlin stated that Iran could decide to produce a bomb by 2010, but Iran is waiting for the right time in the future and that there are some who will always doubt it despite the evidence.

Thursday, 30 July 2009: US pressed to maintain Israel’s ‘qualitative military edge’

Summary: US assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs Andrew Shapiro hears Israeli concerns over the transfer of F-15SA fighters to Saudi Arabia and weapons for the Lebanese army. Israel says it understands US intentions to arm moderate Arab states in the region to counter the Iranian threat.

Key Passage: GOI interlocutors attempted to make the argument that moderate Arab countries could in the future become adversaries — and that this should be taken into account in the QME process. During a roundtable discussion led by the MFA’s Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs Alon Bar, the MFA’s Center for Policy Research gave intelligence briefs on Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Lebanon to further support the argument that these countries could become future foes. Policy Research Center interlocutors reviewed succession concerns in both Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Bar argued that a perceived closure in the capability gap between Israel and Arab states, coupled with a nuclear-armed Iran, could compel moderate Arab states to reassess the notion that Israel was a fixture in the region

Wednesday, 18 November 2009: Israel seeks to block US planes for Saudi

Summary: Senior officials from the US and Israel meet in Tel Aviv to discuss how to maintain Israel’s “qualitative military edge” over all potential enemies, and to co-ordinate approaches to tackling Iran’s nuclear programme after the disclosure of the nuclear facility in Qom.

Key Passage: The GOI described 2010 as a critical year — if the Iranians continue to protect and harden their nuclear sites, it will be more difficult to target and damage them. Both sides then discussed the upcoming delivery of GBU-28 bunker busting bombs to Israel, noting that the transfer should be handled quietly to avoid any allegations that the USG is helping Israel prepare for a strike against Iran.

Tuesday, 23 February 2010: Qatar urges Israeli-Palestinian peace effort

Summary: Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the amir of Qatar, tells Senator John Kerry, chairman of the senate foreign relations committee, that the US must do everything in its power to find a lasting solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He suggests the best way is to reach out to Syria and insists Iran cannot be trusted

Key Passage: The Amir cautioned that the Syrians will not accept everything the U.S. proposes, stressing that the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights continues and that the return of this land to Syria is paramount for Damascus. The Amir observed that the “Syrians have lost confidence in the U.S. and that the Israelis now have the upper hand in the region because of the support of the United States.” The Israeli leaders need to represent the people of Israel, who themselves do not trust Arabs. The Amir said this is understandable and “we can’t blame them” because the Israelis have been “under threat” for a long time.

The Amir closed the meeting by offering that based on 30 years of experience with the Iranians, they will give you 100 words. Trust only one of the 100.

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