Doc's Talk: Gov´t Basing Decisions on Flawed Demographic Data

Monday, June 20, 2011

Gov´t Basing Decisions on Flawed Demographic Data

The new data raises doubts about one of the central arguments advanced by PM Ariel Sharon on behalf of the withdrawal plan.

"Unfortunately, the Prime Minister and the Cabinet as a whole are basing critical policy decisions on grossly flawed demographic assumptions and data," says former Knesset consultant and analyst Yoram Ettinger. "That is why it is so important that this report be increasingly recognized at this time."
The study, carried out by a Washongton D.C.-based think tank and scrutinized by the leading American demographer, Dr. Nick Eberstadt, undermines the assumption that Arabs in Judea, Samaria and Gaza pose a demographic threat to Israel. The researchers reported that the 2004 Arab population of Judea, Samaria and Gaza was closer to 2.4 million than to the 3.8 million reported by the Palestinian Authority (PA). "These findings," the report states, "should have a significant impact on politicians, policy makers and international aid agencies."

The million-and-a-half person gap occurred because the PA numbers are based on Palestine Bureau of Statistics (PBS) projections made in 1997, not on actual population counts. The PBS used their official 1997 census as a base population and assumed the population would grow at 4 to 5% a year, one of the highest growth rates in the world. When the research team reviewed PA Ministry of Health birth data and actual border entry/exit data, they found that the PBS projected growth rate was not met in any year between 1997 and 2004.

The American-based project was led by Bennett Zimmerman, a former Strategy Consultant with Bain & Company. On the research team were historian Dr. Roberta Seid and Dr. Michael Wise, a physicist and expert in mathematic modeling techniques. Yoram Ettinger, a former minister at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, DC and an expert in Middle East politics, led the Israel research team with members Brig. Gen. (Ret.) David Shahaf, former Head of the Civil Administration in Judea and Samaria; Prof. Ezra Sohar who has published several research papers on demographics in Israel; Dr. David Passig, an expert in forecasting, Avraham Shvout, who has tracked both Jewish and Arab population in Judea and Samaria, and Yakov Faitelson, who has researched demography of the Arab population of Judea and Samaria since 1975.

The most extraordinary aspect of the meticulous study is that it undercuts the claim that Jews will become a minority between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea if Israel retains, or even annexes Gaza, Judea and Samaria - the areas liberated in the 1967 Six Day War.

"There is now a 60% Jewish majority between the Jordan and the Mediterranean," Ettinger said. "This has been the case, more or less, since 1967. "The difference is that in 1967 we were at the beginning of a huge increase in Palestinian natural growth rate - but today we stand at a time when the Palestinian population is going through a drastic decline in natural increase."

Ettinger insists that not only will a Jewish majority be maintained, it will only increase from now on. "The 60% of today is by far a drastic improvement over 1967," he said, "and the long-term trends dictate that the Jewish majority will increase as Palestinian natural growth rate continues to decrease, and negative migration [Ed: Arabs leaving Judea and Samaria] continues to be very high."

In addition to the drop in Arab birth-rates, Ettinger points out that – more Arabs have moved out of Judea and Samaria than have moved in. He says that this trend of Arabs moving away has intensified in the recent years since Israel transferred sovereignty over Judea and Samaria to the Palestinian Authority. On the average since 1950, Palestinian net emigration has been 10,000 annually."

These figures stand in sharp contrast to the steady flow of net Jewish increase due to Jews making Aliyah (immigrating to Israel) since 1882.

Other facts presented in the report are:
Fewer births: PA Ministry of Health birth reports were substantially lower than the number predicted by the PBS.
Lower Fertility Rates: PA Arab fertility rates declined from the mid-90's through 2003, according to PA Ministry of Health, consistent with the trend occurring in other Middle Eastern Arab societies.
Double Counting: 210,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are already counted in Israel's population survey were included in the PA survey.
Inclusion of non-residents: PA Arabs with ID's living abroad for over one year were included in the PA Census & Projection.
Internal migration: 150,000 PA Arabs who have legally relocated to Israel since 1993 are still counted by the PA.
Retrospective Alterations of Recorded Birth data.

"The most convincing evidence again came from the Palestinians themselves," explained researcher Roberta Seid, Ph.D. "The PA Central Election Commission press release of October 14, 2004 acknowledged that 200,000 of Palestinians were living abroad and that the number of eligible voters living in the Territories was only 1.3 million. These figures corroborate our lowest population calculations."

Since its original publication in January, the leaders of the study have presented their finding to President Moshe Katzav, National Security Advisor General (res.) Giora Eiland, the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, the Knesset Government Operations Committee, the State Comptroller, the Central Bureau of Statistics, the Foreign Ministry and in private meetings with Cabinet Members and Knesset members. They have now been invited to present their findings at Israel's National Security Council, the Haifa Technion, Knesset Committees, and the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies.

Though the report debuted in January, it is being presented at Israel's Government Press Office Thursday. "Since January, it has become part of the Israeli public debate," Ettinger said. "There is one team of the 'demographers of doom,' who have been feeding the public data based on gross misinterpretations. Now that we have documented this and presented the facts, they are gradually being accepted."

Despite the new revelations, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon continues to present demographics as the central reason for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and northern Samaria. "We are not allowed to ignore the demographic reality in the land of Israel, and even within the borders of the State of Israel," Sharon said Tuesday in an address at Bar Ilan University. "This reality entails sober decisions now. Any postponement in making the necessary decisions will not relieve us of the need to tackle the difficult questions."

The entire study can be viewed at PAdemographics.com or by clicking here.

(IsraelNationalNews.com)

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

Doc's Talk