Wednesday, September 21, 2011

The Declaration of Palestinian Statehood: An Unparalleled Political Opportunity?

Reut Institute

Executive Summary
1. This paper offers a framework for an Israeli political initiative on the Palestinian unilateral motion to get United Nations recognition of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as an independent state (hereinafter "recognition of a Palestinian state") and to accept the Palestinian entity as a full member state of the UN. Israel should seize the Palestinian campaign as an opportunity to:
 Enter into negotiations with the U.S. and the international community regarding the terms upon which the UN Security Council (UNSC) recognizes the Palestinian state.If Israeli prerequisites are met, it would also be able to recognize the Palestinian state, and to turn the Palestinian plan, which seems to have aimed primarily at embarrassing Israel, into a transformative breakthrough;
 Shape "the day after" UN recognition of a Palestinian state, emphasizing that the Palestinian entity then constitutes the sole legal and political Palestinian representation of its citizens and residents, entailing inherent rights, duties, and responsibilities that are clear and bound by international law.
2. The principal potential benefits of such Israeli initiative are:
 Anchoring the principle of 'two-states-for-two-peoples,' which strengthens the recognition of Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people; guaranteeing security interests; diluting Palestinian refugee issue; breaking the deadlock in the negotiations; fortifying the status of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel; and improving relations with the U.S.;
 Positioning Israel as an asset to its allies, rather than a liability, against the backdrop of regional instability and uncertainty; rising tensions between Israel and Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan; and the U.S. administration's frustration with its failure to achieve significant progress in the Israeli- Palestinian political process;
 Lowering the prospects of confrontation between the IDF and the Palestinian population that may escalate into a strategic upset for Israel, as a result of a combination of lack of unity in Israel and the Jewish world behind the government‟s policies, high regional turbulence, and rising tensions with the Israeli Arab citizens and Bedouin populations;
The detrimental effects of such confrontation could be significant and long lasting, and include an escalation of the assault on Israel's legitimacy; a rift between Israel and the Jewish World; a crisis between the Government of Israel (GOI) and the U.S. administration; considerable constraints on Israel's ability to use its military force for self-defense; a domestic crisis in

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Israeli society within the Jewish population and with Israel's Arab and Bedouin citizens; and the dissolution of the PA and the paradigm of 'two- states-for-two-peoples.' These potential effects are distinct from, but may aggravate, the ongoing enmity with Iran, Hezbollah, and others. Thus, Israel may be walking into a political collision, which will at first seem a local and containable conflict against a relatively weak and unorganized opponent, but can in practice develop into a strategic setback.
3. These potential benefits are conditioned upon the consolidation of a political deal, which will enable Israel to waive its rejection of the recognition of the Palestinian state in the UNSC and of its reception as a full-fledged UN member state. This deal must be based on close coordination with the leading countries, primarily with the U.S. and ideally also with the Palestinians, on the essence and language of the UNSC resolution. Such a deal would enable the U.S. not to exercise its veto power.
4. The proposed political initiative of Israel is based on the following principles:
a. The Palestinian state will be established and recognized by the world, including by the U.S. and Israel, and accepted as a full member state of the UN, which requires a UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR);
b. The principle of 'two-states-for-two-peoples' will be anchored by the UNSCR and would clearly refer to the „Jewish state‟ or „nation-state of the Jewish people‟ parallel to the „Arab / Palestinian state,‟ or, at the minimum, to the principle of 'two-states-for-two-peoples';
c. The Palestinian state will inherit the PA, with all the powers and authorities accorded it in the Oslo accords and subsequent agreements. The Gaza Strip is part of the Palestinian state, but recognition of the Hamas regime would be conditional upon its fulfillment of the Quartet's demands and resumption of participation as an integral part of the Palestinian state;
d. Attributes of sovereignty of the Palestinian state will be upgraded, except from outstanding issues that have been agreed to be negotiated. For example, the Palestinian state could issue its own currency and conduct international trade agreements, but its final borders and security arrangements with Israel would be negotiated on a state-to-state basis in the future (see below);
e. Borders and territories: The initial territory of the Palestinian state would be that of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the West Bank, and its permanent borders would be determined in negotiations. The illegitimate Hamas regime in Gaza would not be recognized by Israel and the international community. The U.S. could note the Palestinian demand for borders based on the June 4th 1967 Lines, which it has already done;
f. Security arrangements: The U.S. would guarantee to Israel that in Permanent Status, agreed-upon security arrangements – primarily on the perimeter of the West Bank, in coordination with Jordan, and on the territories of the Palestinian state – would be established. Gaza would not be

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connected to the West Bank through a safe passage until similar arrangements are established on its border with Egypt;
g. Self-defense and legal defense: Israel's right to defend itself from any threat emanating from the Palestinian territory would be recognized, as would the legitimacy of Israel‟s judicial system to oversee its actions so as to validate the Complementarily Principle that protects from prosecution and procedures in international tribunals;
h. Representation: The Palestinian state would exclusively represent its Palestinian citizens, and would bear responsibility and be accountable for everything that happens in its territory according to international law. Israel and the Palestinians would establish mutual reciprocal diplomatic missions in Ramallah and Tel Aviv; all countries would be invited to establish an embassy to the Palestinian state in Ramallah, and their Jerusalem consulates would cease to cover the West Bank and Gaza; and Palestinian embassies around the world would serve the Palestinian state instead of the PLO;
i. Elections in the Palestinian state: The Palestinians would conduct elections in the West Bank (and in Gaza if possible) in order to establish a Palestinian leadership that legitimately represents its citizens and residents;
j. Resumption of the political process on a state-to-state basis, while focusing on issues under the jurisdiction of the Palestinian state, such as borders, security, economy, trade, environment, and even management of the Jerusalem area. The 'historic issues' that emanate from 1948, or issues that are resonant for the entire Palestinian people (for example, the refugee issue or the holy sites in Jerusalem), would be negotiated only at a later stage, and following the resolution of the crisis of Palestinian representation (see below);
k. Release of Palestinian prisoners to the West Bank as a goodwill gesture.
5. An Israeli initiative may generate additional benefits:
a. Diluting the refugee issue: Palestinian refugees would be able to return to the Palestinian state (subject to Israeli specific security considerations). Israel could press for the cessation of the UNWRA presence in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Palestinian government. In addition, Israel could campaign to change the reality in which certain individuals are both Palestinian refugees and citizens of third countries;
b. Receiving a unique and tailored security package from the U.S. that would guarantee Israel's capacities to confront future challenges arising from the Palestinian state and the dramatic changes in the Middle East. Examples include building a security fence along Israel's border with Egypt and Jordan, or acquiring Iron Dome systems to protect Israel's urban center;

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c. Releasing Jonathan Pollard: An Israeli political initiative that spares the U.S. from using its veto power may lead to mutual goodwill that would pave the way for the release of Jonathan Pollard.
6. Now is the ideal time to launch such an Israeli initiative for the following reasons: (a) Israel may fail to circumvent the Palestinian bid for statehood, and experience a diplomatic defeat in the UN that will embarrass its allies and primarily the U.S.; (b) An Israeli political initiative that accepts Palestinian statehood places the 'burden of proof' on the Palestinians to meet Israel‟s concerns; (c) The assembling of the General Assembly (GA) creates an opportunity for intensive dialogue between Israel and the world's leaders; (d) Such a political initiative could not have been launched earlier given that the Palestinian's guiding logic in this campaign is confrontational, i.e. had Israel supported it, the Palestinians would have probably withdrawn from it.
Introduction
7. This month, the Palestinian leadership is planning to request UN recognition of a Palestinian state and acceptance as full member state in the UN. At this point, the specific nature of the Palestinian motion is unclear, such as whether it will be presented to the General Assembly or also to the Security Council.1 In any case, it is already apparent that the Palestinians will enjoy the support of most countries.
8. The Palestinian campaign creates a dilemma for Israel: Despite Israel's support for the principle of 'two-states-for-two-peoples' that is based on creating a Palestinian state, it objects to UN recognition of a Palestinian state and is working to obstruct it.2 This stems from concerns of:
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 A unilateral UN position on permanent status issues such as the 1967 borders;
 A narrowing of Israel's political and military room for maneuver in light of the inherent rights of the Palestinian state within its land, airspace, and maritime territory;
 The International Criminal Court in the Hague gaining jurisdiction over the Palestinian state's territory, which would influence the legal status of IDF soldiers and of settlements and settlers;
 Hamas taking over the Palestinian state;
The options that have been brought up as of late are an attempt to gain acceptance as a full member in the UN through the Security Council (which can be vetoed by any of the permanent members), to pass Security Council decisions that support an independent state but do not entail UN membership, to seek recognition of a Palestinian state from the General Assembly, to hold a special General Assembly conference using the pretext of Uniting for Peace, and to demand the implementation of Resolution 181 (the Partition Plan). Jerusalem Post, 6/12/11
See for example the plan the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent to Israeli embassies abroad to obstruct the campaign for UN recognition of a Palestinian state. Haaretz, 6/10/11

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 A popular national Palestinian uprising that would directly confront the IDF under the inspiration of the Arab Spring;
 A collapse of the PA if the Palestinian campaign fails, which could bring about a renewal of full Israeli control over Palestinians in the West Bank;
 The establishment of a Palestinian state that does not recognize the State of Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people.
9. This contradiction stems from a clash between two logics:
 Israel’s security logic calls for staying in the West Bank – This logic stems from the concern that the West Bank would turn into hostile territory like Gaza, placing Israel‟s population centers under fire. Such a threat increases when the Palestinian state controls its airspace and borders. According to this logic, controlling and monitoring critical parts of the Palestinian territories are essential security needs;
 Israel’s political logic calls for withdrawing from the West Bank – This logic stems from the threat that Israel‟s continued control over the Palestinian population will become an unbearable political, diplomatic, and economic burden. Therefore, the continuation of Israel‟s control over the Palestinian population is a strategic threat.3
Indeed, in the past fifteen years, Israel has swung between the two logics.
Each attempt to contend with one of the threats amplifies the other. On the one hand, the political logic shaped Oslo Accords, as well as the Camp David Summit, the unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the Olmert government's Convergence Plan, and the Annapolis process. On the other hand, the security logic shaped Israel's policy in advance of the Wye River Memorandum, and in the days of Operation Defensive Shield and Operation Cast Lead.
10. Israel also swings between the logic of negotiations and the logic of unilateralism. Though Israel has reconciled with the need to end control over Palestinians, in practice, both political avenues open to Israel – negotiations and unilateral moves – encompass complex structural problems:
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 The path of negotiations turns Palestinian political will and their capacity to govern into a pre-condition for progress. However, the combination of a weak Palestinian political system and the widespread view of Palestinians that time is „on their side‟ in practice brings about an escalation of demands, a lengthening of the negotiation process, and an expansion of the agenda;
 The path of unilateral moves strengthens radical elements and provides them 'veto rights,' exercised through violence, to obstruct progress.
Thus, on the one hand, the logic of negotiations shaped the Oslo process, the Road Map, and Annapolis; on the other hand, the logic of unilateralism shaped the
See here Abbas' threat to dissolve the PA.

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withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the Prime Minister Olmert's Convergence Plan for the West Bank (which was ultimately buried).
11. Israel is at risk of a political, security, and military crisis unprecedented in its complexity as a result of the confluence of regional and global developments and trends:
 Crises and tensions with Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey – The temporary crises and tensions between Israel and countries that were, until recently, its three most important regional allies fundamentally changes Israel‟s geo- strategic status and ability to politically and militarily maneuver in ways that Israel has yet to understand;
 Mounting U.S. frustration exemplified in public statements by the Secretary of Defense Gates – President Obama is committed to the agreed- upon establishment of a Palestinian state by 2011, which would be a strategically significant U.S. achievement. The U.S. veto of recognition of such state may 'boomerang' on Israel, if Israel fails to put forth a credible initiative that exposes Palestinian rejectionism;
 Lack of support from many in Israel and in the Jewish world, who support the Palestinian bid for statehood, and therefore view a confrontation around this issue as unnecessary. In many Jewish communities, Israel has for some time turned into a polarizing and divisive issue;
 Tensions in relations between the Government of Israel and Arab citizens of Israel and especially with Bedouins in the Negev, that may erupt on the occasion of clashes with the Palestinians;
 A Delegitimization Network mobilized against Israel, which has demonstrated its ability to turn out hundreds of thousands of people to the streets of European capitals;
 A civilian uprising may pose an unprecedented challenge to the IDF given the unique condition of the West Bank and the dispersal of the settlements. Many Palestinians are encouraged by the success of popular uprisings in other countries in the Middle East (with the exception of Iran and Syria, which deploy brutal force).
12. Hence, confrontation with the Palestinian population in September may deteriorate into a large-scale strategic event with broad implications and unprecedented complexity. Such an event may cause the collapse of the PA and the Two-State Solution; an escalation of the assault on Israel's legitimacy; a rift between Israel and the Jewish world; a crisis in the relationship between the U.S. and Israeli governments; constraints on Israel's ability to use military force; and a domestic crisis within the Israeli public. While Israel is operating as if on the cusp of a limited, local confrontation with a weak and unorganized civilian enemy, it may, in effect, be drawn into a confrontation with strategic and far-reaching implications.

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Three Approaches to Shaping Permanent Status: Agreement, State-First, or Constructive Unilateralism?
13. There are three approaches to shaping Permanent Status of Israeli-Palestinian relations, but only one that is relevant:
 A comprehensive agreement aimed at achieving end-of-conflict and finality-of-claims – This approach, which was adopted in the Oslo process, during the Camp David Summit and in Annapolis, advocates seeking one comprehensive agreement that resolves the historic outstanding issues between Israel and the Palestinian people; precipitates the establishment of a Palestinian state in permanent borders; and establishes the relations between the two countries. The traditional Palestinian position supported this approach, and now claims that the UN campaign will hasten a process of negotiations that will lead to such an agreement.
There are significant obstacles to this approach: There are substantive gaps between Israel and the Palestinians regarding outstanding issues such as refugees and Jerusalem; this approach pushes the sides into an 'all-or- nothing' dynamic in which even a historic agreement on borders and Jerusalem cannot materialize in the absence of an agreement on the refugee issue. The complexity of each issue and their interconnectedness present a significant obstacle to reaching a comprehensive agreement.
Furthermore, Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip and aspires to control the entire Palestinian national movement through the PLO, objects as a matter of principle to such an agreement that would bestow legitimacy upon Israel's existence. Its control of Gaza represents an additional obstacle to reaching a comprehensive agreement.
Finally, the Palestinian constitutional crisis, which manifests in Hamas's exclusion from the PLO and in its challenge to Abu Mazen's mandate to reach an agreement with Israel, presents a structural obstacle to this approach. As such, in the current reality, this approach cannot succeed.
Therefore, the calls by Israel, U.S., and the E.U. to renew negotiations toward such an agreement are hollow, as the Palestinians cannot be partners for such a political process due to their constitutional crisis. In recent speeches, Prime Minister Netanyahu presented far-reaching opening principles for negotiation, and invited the Palestinians to negotiate a Permanent Status agreement. However, the Palestinian refusal to do so, based on a demand to resume negotiations from the point where they were left, was actually a cover for the fact the Palestinian‟s leadership lack of internal legitimacy and institutional crisis, which obstruct it from making any historic concession to Israel.
 An interim agreement that establishes a Palestinian state in provisional borders (PSPB) based on the Road Map – This approach aims to establish a Palestinian state with provisional borders through negotiations. The
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permanent status would subsequently be shaped primarily on the basis of relations between Israel and this state, leaving the key outstanding issues for a later phase. The key advantage of this alternative is that it anchors a reality of 'two states for two peoples,' and it dismantles of the 'all-or- nothing' dynamic by allowing to shape Permanent Status through multiple 'small' agreements (see below).
The obstacles: The Palestinian constitutional system lacks the capacity to carry even such an interim agreement due to the crisis that has endured since Hamas victory of 2006. Moreover, although less complicated than a Permanent Status Agreement, a PSPB still entails complex political and legal problems requiring Israeli and Palestinian agreement.
Finally, the clear objection to establishing a PSPB expressed by Abu Mazen and the Fatah since 2005, and their view of such an approach as a „trap‟ (02/05), is the central factor rendering this approach unrealistic;4

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