Yet another stark example of Zero being on the wrong side of everything.
Imagine a scenario involving Hitler and
his ruling Nazi party being overthrown by the German military in 1934 at
the behest of tens of millions of Germans, and FDR and his ruling
administration refusing to ‘get involved’, as well as cutting aid to the
German military and calling for all parties to be respected (including
the Nazis) and included in all future politics in the country.
In the latest example of its poorly understood Egypt policy,
the Obama administration has decided to temporarily suspend the
disbursement of most direct military aid, the delivery of weapons to the
Egyptian military, and some forms of economic aid to the Egyptian
government while it conducts a broad review of the relationship. The
administration won’t publicly acknowledge all aspects of the aid
suspension and maintains its rhetorical line that no official coup
determination has been made, but behind the scenes, extensive measures
to treat the military takeover of Egypt last month as a coup are being
implemented on a temporary basis.
The
office of Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), the head of the Appropriations
State and Foreign Operations Subcommittee, told The Daily Beast on
Monday that military aid to Egypt has been temporarily cut off.
“[Senator
Leahy’s] understanding is that aid to the Egyptian military has been
halted, as required by law,” said David Carle, a spokesman for Leahy.
The
administration’s public message is that $585 million of promised aid to
the Egyptian military in fiscal 2013 is not officially on hold, as
technically it is not due until Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year,
and no final decisions have been made.
“After
sequestration withholding, approximately $585 million remains
unobligated. So, that is the amount that is unobligated,” State
Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Monday. “But it would be
inaccurate to say that a policy decision has been made with respect to
the remaining assistance funding.”
But
two administration officials told The Daily Beast that administration
lawyers decided it was best to observe the law restricting military aid
on a temporary basis, as if there had been a coup designation, while at
the same time deciding that the law did not require a public
announcement on whether a coup took place.
“The
decision was we’re going to avoid saying it was a coup, but to stay on
the safe side of the law, we are going to act as if the designation has
been made for now,” said one administration official. “By not announcing
the decision, it gives the administration the flexibility to reverse
it.”
Several
parts of the aid are now temporarily on hold, including the
disbursement of the $585 million of $1.3 billion in fiscal 2013 foreign
military financing still not delivered to the Egyptian military, the
delivery of Apache helicopters that the Egyptian government has already
paid for, and the depositing of economic support funds for programs that
would directly benefit the Egyptian government, despite official
administration denials, the administration officials said.
“What they are trying to do is appear not to be taking sides,” he said. “But the U.S. is in a ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t’ position.”
Some
aspects of U.S.-Egyptian cooperation can still go forward under the new
approach, including maintenance and repair of equipment the Egyptian
military already has, the funding of some government-linked programs,
and funding for civilian projects in Egypt run by American
organizations, although many of those programs have already been shut
down after the Egyptian government cracked down on foreign NGOs.
Psaki
said Monday that no final policy decision has been made on any of the
Egypt aid and that various parts of the complicated package are still
under review. She did acknowledge that some economic support has been
temporarily suspended, as The New York Times reported Sunday.
“Programs
with the government designed to promote free and fair elections, health
assistance, programs for the environment, democracy, rule of law, and
good governance can also continue in cases even where a legal
restriction might apply,” she said. “But to the extent where there are
ESF programs that would benefit the government, which is obviously, a
section, we are reviewing each of those programs on a case by case basis
to identify whether we have authority to continue providing those funds
or should seek to modify our activities to ensure that our actions are
consistent with the law.”
President Obama last week condemned the Egyptian military’s assault on civilians
but did not address the aid issue directly. He said the administration
was engaged in a full-scale review of all aspects of U.S-Egypt
cooperation.
“While
we want to sustain our relationship with Egypt, our traditional
cooperation cannot continue as usual when civilians are being killed in
the streets and rights are being rolled back,” he said.
Defense
Secretary Chuck Hagel also said Monday that all aspects of U.S. aid to
Egypt were part of the ongoing review and that no final decisions had
been made. He also sought to tamp down expectations that any suspension
or revoking of U.S. aid to Egypt would immediately change the calculus
of the Egyptian military.
“Our
ability to influence the outcome in Egypt is limited,” he said. “It’s
up to the Egyptian people. And they are a large, great, sovereign
nation. And it will be their responsibility to sort this out.”
On
Capitol Hill, lawmakers and staffers complained that the administration
is trying to skirt congressional intent by refusing to say whether it
believes there was a coup in Egypt while implementing its own
preliminary punitive measures outside the confines of the legislation.
“This
approach seems to be too cute by half, leaving the U.S. with little
leverage in Egypt and appearing to condone gross violations of human
rights in the process,” said one senior GOP Senate aide. “It is also
unclear that Congress intended to give the Executive Branch this much
leeway in implementing the coup provision in Section 7008 [of the law].”
For
Egypt experts, the administration’s decision to temporarily suspend
some aid but not make a public determination that a coup occurred
represents not only its ongoing deliberations but also a desire to
preserve options for handling the Egypt aid going forward, especially if
it decides to restore the aid in the future.
The
administration’s confused messaging on Egypt also has analysts
scratching their heads and wondering whether temporary suspensions of
aid can have any real effect.
“If
this is the plan, then it seems like they are trying to maintain
maximum flexibility,” said Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Center
for American Progress. “But I’m not certain this is the plan, and I
don’t think at this stage that modest shifts in policy or even bigger
ones would matter as much on the ground as much as they might have in
the past. Egypt’s struggle has become so intense, polarized, and
violent, and I worry that no matter what move the United States makes
now, the competing power centers in Egypt might continue down the
dangerous course they’ve headed.”
Some
experts believe that a public announcement of the aid suspensions would
raise the pressure on the Egyptian military to behave better,
especially if done in conjunction with other concerned world powers.
“Cutting
off the aid and announcing that puts the maximum pressure on the
Egyptian government to correct its path,” said Tarek Radwan, associate
director of the Atlantic Council’s Hariri Center. “Any kind of
coordination with the European powers toward international
delegitimization, that’s something that the Egyptian government would be
highly uncomfortable with and would force them at least to do damage
control.”
Overall,
the administration is trying to maintain both flexibility and
credibility in Egypt to play a constructive role going forward but is
struggling on both fronts, Radwan said.
“What
they are trying to do is appear not to be taking sides,” he said. “But
the U.S. is in a ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t’ position.”
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