Over the past year Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has stood strong on two legs. The first leg
has been negotiations with Israel, and the second, reconciliation talks with
Hamas. This is also the reason for the Catch-22 in which he has found himself:
He would need to concede one of these legs, but walking on one leg alone would
lead to his downfall. He chose, therefore, to remain in place, to conduct
negotiations with Israel and Hamas but not to move ahead in either.
And yet Abbas decided to go forward
with Hamas regardless, and risk Israeli countermeasures. Still, his agreement
with the Hamas leadership should be treated with caution and skepticism.
Similar deals reached by the sides in the past were repeatedly violated, and
the most recent Palestinian unity government, established in early 2006, came
crashing down with Hamas' hostile takeover in Gaza, while Abbas moved to erase
Hamas' foothold in the West Bank. Regardless, after nearly a decade of fruitless
talks, the sides have struck the deal they had been unwilling to accept. They
signed the deal, therefore, due to a lack of other options, and as stated, it
is doubtful the sides will uphold it.
Hamas comes to this wedding ceremony
without any dowry to speak of. Syria and Iran turned their backs on it for
supporting the rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime; in
Egypt, Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashaal are considered dangerous
enemies, on par with their Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood brethren currently
sitting behind bars. In Gaza, Hamas' popularity has sunk to new lows because of
its struggles to provide the people there with even a minimal respectful
living. Hamas, therefore, needs Abbas like emergency oxygen, just like Arafat
needed the Oslo Accords, some two decades ago, to re-solidify his standing.
But Abbas is also coming to this
marriage empty-handed. No one in the Arab world truly supports him, and he
already knows not to expect much from the international community. The impending
failure of negotiations with Israel will, more than likely, reinvigorate calls
from the Palestinian street to renew the armed struggle against Israel, which
Abbas knows from history is liable to ruin him.
From this point forward then we can
see the logic behind Abbas' and Haniyeh's sudden willingness to join hands.
However, it seems like a show aimed at facilitating their survival at home in
the face of increasing domestic unrest, and perhaps to slightly strengthen
their standing in the region and abroad.
With that, it is difficult to foresee Abbas and Hamas not
only being able to overcome their troubled history, but primarily their fundamental
differences in world views and long-term political interests. Therefore we
should not assume that this unity government -- if it even gets off the ground
-- will last for long.
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