The Wall Street Journal revealed on Friday
that the United States is considering reopening a bilateral diplomatic
channel with Iran - through which negotiations would be conducted by
what the outlet described as a "secret" team - which the outlet noted
would be a replay of clandestine negotiations held last year "without
the knowledge of the U.S.'s closest Middle East allies including Israel
and Saudi Arabia." The news was sourced to both American and
European officials "involved in the diplomacy" surrounding Iran's atomic
program. The news may deepen the quite open
concerns of American allies in the Middle East regarding Washington's
intentions, just a week after Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel had been dispatched
to reassure Riyadh and Jerusalem that U.S. diplomats would not accept a
deal that left the Iranians with the ability to construct nuclear
weapons. Circumventing the current model of multilateral negotiations
between the P5+1 global powers and Iran would among other things freeze
out France and Britain, and observers are likely to note that French
Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius is widely assumed
to have blocked an interim deal last November due to what Paris
considered unacceptably pro-Iranian terms regarding the country's
plutonium-producing Arak reactor. Meanwhile the Iranians continue to
flatly refuse to discuss rolling back the country's ballistic missile
program, with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi this week reiterating the country's repeatedly emphasized stance. Obama administration officials had been explicit
in telling lawmakers and the public that Iran would be forced to
address its international obligations to halt ballistic missile
development in the context of comprehensive negotiations, but have in recent days
been telling reporters that they no longer have a "checklist" that Iran
will be forced to meet, but rather a "package of the combination of
elements.'
TIME Magazine's chief foreign affairs correspondent Michael Crowley on Friday assessed
that the policy debate in Washington over how to approach the Syrian
war may soon shift back to "talk of military action," as Obama
administration officials "brac[ed] for confirmation - in weeks or even
days - that chemical warfare is underway again" inside the war-torn
country. The dynamic is being driven by a stream of evidence - beginning weeks ago with French reports of "indications" and extending through just-published videos
- that the Bashar al-Assad regime has been engaged in a systematic
campaign to deploy chlorine-based chemical weapons (CWs) against
rebel-heavy areas throughout Syria. Crowley contextualized the emerging
data points against what he described as "one of the most dramatic
moments of Barack Obama’s presidency," when last September the president
"delivered a prime-time national address to explain why he intended to
order a military strike on Syria to punish the use of nerve gas against
civilians in violation of the red line he had famously drawn for Assad."
Impending strikes had been called off
under the auspices of a Russian deal that obligated Syria to join the
Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and turn over its vast stockpile of
CWs for destruction. The regime has declared
in recent weeks that it is unable to meet the latter obligation because
of heavy fighting around what is thought to be roughly the remaining 5
percent of proscribed materials, while the use of chlorine in a
battlefield context would violate its CWC obligations. Crowley suggested
that "Assad's brazen return to warfare by poison gas puts Obama in a
miserable spot," and that any confirmation of such use would "again test
[Obama's] credibility, and renew talk of U.S. military action in
Syria."
A wide-ranging interview
of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by Bloomberg View
columnist Jeffrey Goldberg - in which the Israeli leader emphasized
Jerusalem's determination to either bilaterally or unilaterally untangle
the Jewish state from Palestinians living in the West Bank - triggered a
wave of social media discussion Friday morning, with journalists and
analysts focusing on among other things the sources and implications of
potential unilateral moves. Sohrab Ahmari, an editorial page writer for the Wall Street Journal Europe, described the interview as a "must read." Jodi Rudoren, the Jerusalem bureau chief of The New York Times, picked out
Netanyahu's declaration that there is a growing consensus inside Israel
for such moves, while the Daily Beast's national security reporter Eli
Lake tweeted
the prime minister's remark that Israelis would refuse to "mortgage
[their] future to the maturation of Palestinian politics." The phrase
was a gesture by Netanyahu toward the Israeli stance that Palestinian
intransigence - which Jerusalem insists is a function of a policy that
has been conditioned by incitement
to reject compromise with the Jewish state - had led to the failure of a
recent U.S.-backed peace push. Two-thirds of Americans agree with
that position, holding that a unity agreement between the rival
Palestinian Fatah and Hamas factions had made negotiations impossible,
opposite the Palestinian position that a consensus cabinet agreed to by
Hamas would facilitate a comprehensive agreement. Some have blamed
Israeli settlement construction for the impasse, a suggestion Netanyahu
dismissed by among other things revealing to Goldberg that the Israelis
had "made it very clear to the U.S. and to the Palestinians exactly how
much [they] would build, including in Jerusalem... [and they] built
exactly what we said we would build in every one of the tranches."
Language
attached to the $600 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
by a House Armed Services Committee (HASC) report may deepen
American-Israeli cooperation in developing and producing missile defense
technology - with the provision aiming to ensure "coproduction of parts
and components [for the Iron Dome system]... in a manner that will
maximize US industry participation in interceptor and battery deliveries
for Israel's defense needs" - according to an extensive write-up on the relevant sections published on Thursday by Al Monitor's Congress Pulse.
The outlet assessed that "the report language is but the latest move in
a long-standing effort by Congress and US arms makers to ensure the
United States gets access to the Iron Dome market and its Israel-made
technology," and noted previous legislation setting the stage for U.S.
firm Raytheon to partner with Israel's Rafael in producing the Tamir
missiles used by Iron Dome batteries. It also cited a May 2012 report
by Gabriel Scheinmann, then a visiting fellow at the Jewish Institute
for National Security Affairs, calling on U.S. lawmakers to take steps
that would "transform Iron Dome into a jointly owned and managed
US-Israeli defense system." Joint production would be the latest
addition to a broad array of dual military projects between the two
allies. Analysts have emphasized that military-to-military ties allow
the U.S. to leverage "unique Israeli capabilities in key 'niche' areas of military technology," with drone development often being cited as a key area alongside missile defense and cyber-cooperation. For its part Iron Dome has also been discussed in the context of defending U.S. allies such as South Korea and Singapore, while India earlier this month moved toward acquiring a range of Israeli anti-missile defenses.
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