Saturday, May 24, 2014

Now That the Two-State Solution Is Dead

Mike Konrad
Anyone with half a brain knew that there would be no two-state deal.  The ugly truth is that only viable solution is moving the Arabs in Judea and Samaria out.  Ugly?  Yes, but all other options are primed to fail.
The lion's share of the blame lies with the Arabs, who refuse to recognize a Jewish right to the land; but even had the Arabs been more reasonable, Israeli Jews were never going to surrender their patrimony.  Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) are the Jewish heartland.  No two-state solution was moral, let alone possible. 
What to do with these Judean and Samarian Arabs?   The ideas range all over.  To arrive at the necessary conclusion of removal, it is necessary to show that other options fail.
Some pundits suggest annexation while slowly assimilating and enfranchising these Arabs over time.  However, the large Arab population will not permit it.  Once enfranchised, they would form a coalition with leftist parties inside Israel and vote Israel out of existence.  

Annexationists often counter with claims that Arab birthrates have fallen.  They ignore that Arabs marry much younger, cycling through generations faster.  Even if Arab and Jewish women now have the same number of children, the Arab will have three children and nine grandchildren before the Jewish women finishes up with her three.
Judean and Samarian Arabs have a massive youth bulge.  Israel would annex a population on the verge of a Muslim baby boom.
Others suggest confining the Arabs to severely controlled autonomous regions.  Israel would control entrance and exit to these areas, water and mineral rights, population registry ID, imports and exports, etc.
Those who make this suggestions never quite explain how a violently irascible people like the Arabs would submit quiescently to such regulation.  Far more peaceable people have revolted over less.  Instead, they suggest that those Arabs who do not like being confined to administrative districts can leave. 
Leave to where?  Since the Arab states will not taken them in, where can they go?  The inevitable reply is, “Where the Arabs go is not Israel's problem.”  However, it is Israel's problem if the Arabs in Judea and Samaria can't go anywhere else.  Israel will remain stuck with angry Arabs.
Israel can no longer influence the way this looks to the world.  The arrangement may be necessary for the safety of Jews, but it is not pretty.  Yes, North Korea and Iran are worse, but that does not matter to the myopic U.N.
There are those who offer hybrid solutions.  Israel will annex Area C only.  These suggest that Israel offer citizenship to the 50,000 Arabs in Area C, and this will insulate Israel from charges of racism.  They ignore that the world will focus on the continuing disenfranchisement of the Arabs in Areas A and B instead.  Such hybrid solutions are insouciant at best.
If Israel wants stable control over Judea and Samaria, the Arabs have to go.  The hostility between the two parties is too strong for compromise, the cultures too disparate.  One side or the other must leave.  In fact, if Israel does not get the Arabs out, many Jews may start to flee.  The demand for second passports by Israelis is increasing.
The only thing that should be up for discussion is method.
Far too many commentators on pro-Israel sites advocate forced transfer, which is just a fancy term for ethnic cleansing.  Even if successful, this would only seal Israel's pariah status among an increasingly anti-Semitic world.
Other Israelis – those who want to avoid war – harbor the illusion that one day Jordan will decide to take these Arabs in and naturalize them.  That any serious thinker could base his or her remedy on the preposterous idea that a Muslim Arab state would act rationally, and do the right thing, just indicates the desperation of some intellectuals to solve the problem.  Frustration has driven them mad.
Waiting for the Muslims to become rational will only ensure continuing low-grade war in Judea and Samaria.
Since transfer is the only possible solution, and if war is to be avoided, then paying the Arabs in Judea and Samaria to leave is the only viable solution.
Despite what the media and Arab propaganda tell you, many Arabs would be willing to leave.
The most shocking result is related to willingness to [e]migrate... The results also show that 44% of young Palestinians are willing to [e]migrate if given the opportunity.
Of course, no Arab organization will admit it.  However, if the offer is made to young Arab individuals in Judea and Samaria, particularly to graduating college seniors, studies show that they would voluntarily leave.  This has so scared Arab leaders that they have issued fatwas against emigration.
It is true that many Arabs would be afraid to take the offer.  They would be killed.  However, if individual Arabs were offered traveling papers, residency in a third country, and money to set themselves up, and were whisked out immediately upon agreement, no killing would be possible.  If an engineering graduate was offered papers to Uruguay, got his money, and was flown out that evening, who could kill him?
The agreement has to be made with individuals to bypass the threat of violence.  Women should be especially encouraged to leave.  If women were given preference, birthrates would drop.  Removing only men will result in increased polygamy, with no effect on birthrates.
Who should pay?  Far too many say, “Israel should not have to pay.”
Maybe not, but since Israel would benefit, I do not see how Israel can avoid paying.  Certainly the Arab states will not subsidize this.  If you can get Western states to chip in, I have no problem, but Israel is going to have to contribute a considerable portion.
Who would take them?
Many countries would take them, if they came with money.  Muslim states would blacklist them, but many second-tier states would welcome them.  South American and Asian countries would take them.  Mozambique, which is democratic, and religiously pluralistic, might take them in.
Uruguay gives residency to anyone who can demonstrate a $6,000-a-year income.  Argentina has relatively liberal immigration laws.  Chile is 5% Arab, and they are elite.  South America has a track record of converting and assimilating Muslims.  The Muslims would arrive in the midst of a South American Evangelical revival.  Evangelicals have quadrupled in the last 30 years.  Gospel street preachers would dampen their Islamic ardor. 
The only other option is spending lots of time inventing fanciful solutions that will not work.  The end result will be war.
This may not be the most moral solution.  In a perfect world, the Arab states would take their brethren in, but in this world, they won't.  If we wait for the Arabs to act rationally, then we are as delusional as the Arabs are. 
It may hurt our Western pride to pay the Arabs to leave Judea and Samaria, but it is cheaper than war – and far less insane than a two-state solution.
Mike Konrad is the pen name of an American who is not Jewish, Latin, or Arab.  He runs a website,, where he discusses the subculture of Arabs in Latin America.  He wishes his Spanish were better.

Page Printed from: at May 24, 2014 - 01:01:33 PM CDT

No comments: