And so Annapolis started with wall-to-wall coverage, fanfare and words of peace and freedom. A certain sense of optimism has somehow been conveyed. Positively, the Palestinians and Israelis have agreed to sue for peace in a year. Negatively, absent a bona fide miracle, they will fail.. There are several reasons why, most stemming from unthinking US support for certain fundamental Israeli positions that will torpedo any agreement. But even instrumentally, the process we are about to witness does not differ from previous attempts which have been tried and failed miserably.
Since that does not deter the protagonists, let it not deter us. But in a year, when Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas resigns having only achieved a document that is clearly unacceptable and the coalition government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has fallen to pieces, we will look back and wonder why we bothered.
It will be a hard question to answer. Beyond the symbolic participation of Syria, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries without peace treaties with Israel at Annapolis, nothing has changed. The Palestinian position remains the same. The Israeli position has, if anything, hardened. Meanwhile, the US remains the least likely unbiased mediator in history.
And so the stated fears of those at Annapolis - that we are at a crossroads between the road of extremism and compromise - will be realised. But the so-called extremists need not stir themselves to action. They only have to sit and watch as yet another process falls by the wayside.
Let it not be said there is not a chance for peace now. The Arab Peace Initiative, which rightly demands a just and comprehensive peace, is exactly that opportunity. But Israel, supported by the US, has chosen to ignore that historic opportunity.
Instead, the parties are treading water. And while that is preferable to sinking, they can wave their hands as much as they like at the moment. They will be drowning soon enough.
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