'Death to Russia' on the Streets of Tehran

Strafor

At Friday services in Tehran on July 17, Iran’s second most powerful cleric, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, delivered a sermon for the first time since the country’s presidential elections and subsequent demonstrations in June. What he said was fairly unremarkable: He positioned himself as a supporter of the democratic tradition within the Islamic Republic — asserting that the late founder of the clerical regime, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, had said to him that the revolution’s purpose was to give the people power. He did not repudiate Khomeini’s other point, which was that the power of the people was to be circumscribed by Islamic law as interpreted by the senior clergy, of which Rafsanjani is a major figure.

Far more interesting than Rafsanjani’s speech was what happened outside during the sermon. With supporters of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inside the mosque — from which many anti-Ahmadinejad demonstrators had been prevented from entering — chants of Death to Russia were taken up outside. While chants of “Death to America” are commonplace (and, since the events in Xinjiang, “Death to China” has also been heard), “Death to Russia” has been quite rare. But that is what the crowd was chanting.

It is impossible to see how the crowd could have chanted that without a decision by Rafsanjani. (Our Geopolitical Intelligence Report this week will explore this subject much more deeply). The question is what it was that Rafsanjani was signaling. The answer is that where Ahmadinejad has accused him of being close to the Americans, Rafsanjani tried to turn the tables by accusing Ahmadinejad of being close to the Russians.

It’s important to remember that Ahmadinejad traveled to a diplomatic function in Moscow during the worst of Irans post-election demonstrations. It is also the case that Ahmadinejad had warned months before the elections that the Americans were trying to mount a “color” revolution in Iran. The implication of the chants, and of other hints and leaks, is that Rafsanjani believes that the repression Ahmadinejad imposed after the elections was advised by the Russians, and possibly came with their technical assistance.

The Russians know that Iran is a thorn in the side of the United States, and Iran under Ahmadinejad is a painful thorn. Russia these days is not in the business of pulling thorns out of the American hide. And from Ahmadinejad’s point of view, if you take seriously his belief that outsiders were supporting and underwriting the Iranian demonstrators, looking for a regional great power to back his position makes perfect sense.

Of course, from Rafsanjani’s point of view, whether it is true or not, painting Ahmadinejad as being allied with the Russians is not a bad move. Iranians generally do not like the Russians. During World War II, they occupied northern Iran and left only under American pressure. During the Iranian revolution, the Russians supported the Tudeh Party, Iranian communists who sought to be an alternative to the Khomeini revolution. The United States is Iranians’ top country to wish death to, but Russia is on the list as well — although well down the list these days.

Rafsanjani’s attempt to reactivate the Russian threat serves at least to counter the charges that he is pro-American. That shouldn’t be hard to do. The West has confused Rafsanjani’s financial and political opportunism with moderation for a long time. Ahmadinejad’s view is that Rafsanjani is pro-Rafsanjani. But if Rafsanjani can redefine the issue away from himself and toward Ahmadinejad and the people who backed him, he can redefine the internal game. And that’s what he tried to do on Friday.