Doc's Talk: COP: Making it up in global warming theory

Sunday, September 06, 2009

COP: Making it up in global warming theory

James Lewis
Science Magazine has good news for global warming crowd: The Hockey Stick is back! It was shown to be a fraud before, but now -- Shazam! It's back!

Gee it's hot today. But... compared to what? That's the big question in the global warming game. The best ways of measuring world temps is with satellites and weather balloons, using space-age electronics. Which didn't exist until recently. So if it seems hotter today, we have to guess at the historic baseline for the last 2,000 years. Or rather, we end up using "baseline surrogates." Like Arctic ice cores, tree rings, and such. Politicians do it all the time with job figures and the economy. Look how many jobs we didn't lose this quarter! It could have been a lot worse! They just make up a low baseline for comparison. Kids do the same thing when they come home with a bad report card. It could have been a lot worse, Mom!

Now the trouble with "surrogate baselines" for anything in science is that it takes a long time to figure out what they really mean. Is your cholesterol level really a good "baseline surrogate" for your chances of blowing a gasket down the line? Turns out it isn't that good. You can have low cholesterol and run into trouble in middle age, or high cholesterol and live to a ripe old age. With longitudinal measures (over long periods of time) we usually find out how good they are after a long time passes, to check the surrogate against real data. Until then we are just speculating. A huge amount of scientific debate is precisely about that question. It goes on all the time. It's only in the warming game that temperature surrogates are accepted without question. If they are low enough, so we can "prove" that things have gotten hot, hot.

Science magazine is run by a True Believer in global warming. These people have conquered the commanding political heights in science. They control British medical science, for example, on behalf of the UK Medical Monopoly, which is run by the BritLeft. So you have to assume that in reaching Science magazine you're always reading the New York Times, and you always have to read for spin and bias. It's a breakdown of normal science, and it is potentially a disaster. (Arguably a lot of people have already died from politicized science since the rise of the Boomer Left. Viz., Rachel Carson.)

Science magazine is the house organ of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the big money union for science. At one point they spelled their name AAA$ in their glossy ads. Which was at least honest.

Obama just rewarded his academic buds by doubling the budget of the National Science Foundation, and sending a couple of hundred billion to the climate alarmists. Science magazine has been outright supporting the Democrats for years in its editorial pages. Academic Pell Grants have increased by 25% in just one year. It all goes to the Big U Lobby. Academia is a powerful political lobby, and they lean Hard Left. What we are reading in Science magazine today is not exactly free from that Party Line.

Which makes me wonder why ice cores are considered such reliable measures of global temps in the Arctic two millenia ago. Who knows what was really going on to change a few degrees of melting and freezing, melting and freezing in layer upon layer of ice mixed with dirt and bacteria, week after week over a couple of thousand years? The Arctic is a very complicated, very dynamic place. New glaciers constantly grow and calve off. Moss and bacterial films raise the ice temps underneath. Salinity changes the melting temperature of sea water. Krakatoa erupts in the Pacific Ocean and blasts a layer of carbon particles around the world, warming the top layers of ice, maybe down to ten centimeters or more; as a result, algae may bloom and melt ice layers where they thrive. The Great Southern Oscillation (El Nino) flips every now and then, sending streams of warm water in different directions around the world. There are whole ecosystems that thrive at very high heat around oceanic vents and use sulfur-based metabolism. A total surprise when they were discovered in the 1990s; it overturned four centuries of biological classification research. Were there similar "extremophile" organisms in the ice during the Maunder Minimum five hundred years ago? Who knows? Those critters are long gone, their populations are constantly adapting to changing conditions. Micro-organisms are amazingly adaptive.

The idea of a perfectly stable "surrogate baseline" for 2,000 years of global temps is dubious in the extreme. And there's no proof -- it's all dependent on somebody's computer model, and all computer models are wrong when it comes to the real world. All the banks that went down the tubes in the Market Crash of 2008 were relying on super-duper computer stock market models that turned out to be wrong. Biological and climate models are no better. If anything, they are more primitive.

The burden of proof in real science is always on the proposer. It's the global warmers who have to prove their claims beyond a shadow of a doubt. Albert Einstein had to prove Special Relativity Theory (via the famous solar eclipse expeditions of 1914). That's how healthy science always works. A lot of science doesn't get proven until the proposer is long dead. Max Planck wasn't recognized until very late in life.

If you flip the burden of proof, every End of the Earth fantasist can have his own "scientific" empire. It's like flipping the burden of guilt in a criminal trial: Would you please prove your innocence to the satisfaction of a hanging judge? That's how witchcraft trials work, and Stalinist show trials. So the burden of proof has to be on the proposer.

So today Science mag is telling us that the infamous Hockey Stick curve is back. We have "proof" of amazingly fast warming in the Arctic over the last century, by as much as a whole degree centigrade -- compared to that "surrogate" baseline.

Well, color me skeptical.

These are the same climate modelers who have been repeatedly found to be ... well, let's call it wrong ... on the evidence they cherry-picked. Just the way Pope Urban VIII was wrong about Galileo; not because they have a bias, you understand. Like the Inquisition, they just had a purely scientific debate with Galileo about the rings of Jupiter.

Today's scientific popes are not in the Vatican; they are in the White House, the EPA and NASA. They control the UN and its bizarre forecasts about Global Armageddon any day now, which only UN bureaucrats can solve. That will be hundreds of billions from America; no, let's go Obama. Make it trillions. Live a little.

James Hansen wants global warming skeptics prosecuted for Crimes Against Humanity, just like Galileo was persecuted by the Holy Inquisition. He's not the only one, and with Obama those characters are all over DC. Why do you think Dr. "Let's Kill the Demented" Emanuel has his personal empire at the National Institutes of Health in DC? He speaks for the Imperial Bureaucracy. That's why he's destined to become our High Medical Commissar.

It wouldn't be that science funders have become biased and corrupted by the global warming game, would it? Naaahhh... I mean, that might mean that Swine Flu and Mad Cow have been insanely over-hyped for decades, just for the sake of scare headlines, the political fuel for socialist establishments all over the world. Keep the people good and scared, and promise them anything. That's how Obama operates. That's how socialists work in Europe.

But Scientists Are Good and Honest. They aren't bought by showers of golden coins. Tenure, an endless flow of research grants, academic applause and public notoriety, well, I'm not saying. Scientists are easily seduced by the applause of the media, just like Madonna. Especially scientist-politicians like Hansen at NASA. Shut off his phone line to the media, and he's ruined.

But today we have a Free Science medium, not controlled by the Left and by Establishment Science.

You're reading it. Now you can find out the best evidence, follow the honest debates (there are some), and make up your own mind. Science dies without a free media. Just like all the other personal freedoms. Science is just the freedom to think clearly and without coercion. Without freedom, it's just another version of mental slavery.

Page Printed from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/09/making_it_up_in_global_warming.html at September 06, 2009 - 02:18:40 AM EDT

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

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