Wednesday, December 08, 2010

WikiLeaks and U.S. Critical Infrastructure


Stratfor

December 7, 2010

A U.S. State Department cable requesting that regional security officers, political officers and State Department employees update a 2008 list of critical infrastructure abroad for inclusion in a list of foreign and domestic critical infrastructure (and key resources) maintained by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has generated much media interest. Much of the frenzy arose after former British Defense Minister and Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind on Dec. 6 called the leaked document “the kind of information terrorists are interested in.” Media interest aside, STRATFOR does not see this document as offering much value to militant groups planning attacks against U.S. targets abroad. The sites listed in the cable are either far too general, such as tin mines in China; are not high-profile enough to interest militants, such as undersea cables; or already represent well-known strategic vulnerabilities, such as the Strait of Malacca.

STRATFOR has discussed how many of the sorts of targets mentioned in the cable do not necessarily lend themselves to successful terrorist attacks. Dams, 24 of which are mentioned in the cable, would require more explosive power to damage significantly than a militant group reasonably could be expected to deploy. Ports, 15 of which are mentioned in the cables, cover too much area to be significantly disrupted for long amounts of time by terrorist attacks.

Militants already are very much aware the vulnerabilities of the other targets, such as oil pipelines. And while attacking undersea cable landings — mentioned 72 times in the cable, more than any other specific target — could disrupt global communication networks, redundant infrastructure means attacking one node would not disrupt the network or leave any sizable population center isolated for a long period. (Previous damage to undersea cables has been limited to temporary Internet outages that are quickly repaired.)

Instead of an earth-shattering list of sites vulnerable to terrorist attacks, the list leaked this week is really a more revealing look at the inner bureaucracy and daily activities of the U.S. security community and at how diplomats around the world contribute to assessing threats to U.S. interests. This does not mean listed sites will not ever be attacked, but that experienced militants do not rely on DHS studies to provide targeting guidance.

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