Saturday, March 05, 2011

Alfred Biegel: Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process: Status and Direction

Alfred Biegel
Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process: Status and Direction

Wikileaks and Palestinian leaks documentation accurately underscore the rationale for a reversal of US policy toward the Palestinians. Since the The Wikileaks emphasized that the “US and EU underestimated Palestinian Authority (PA) rejectionism”, US Government policy actions since the Wikileak revelations have been consistent with guidance to all US agencies to implement the policy changes that were highlighted in the Wikileaks. The documentation clearly underscores US recognition that the PA wasted 10 months of an Israeli settlement moratorium. The Palestinian leadership failed to adhere to US warnings that unilateral Israeli concessions on the contested settlement issue would neither be possible, nor supported unless the Palestinian Authority (PA) recognized the imperative of the existence of a Jewish and Democratic state alongside a Palestinian state as the keystone of a two-state solution. The PA turned down US and Israeli policy initiatives and appeals on this existential issue. While the US emphasized the need for Israel to minimize provocative actions i.e., settlements in areas to be relinquished, Netanyahu Government pledged that Israeli settlement expansion would be limited, restrained, and responsible and significantly, not in areas outside territories to be ceded in a peace agreement. Given the revelations in the Palestinian Leaks, this Israeli Government pronouncement appears to be consistent with that pledge.
Although the PA has failed to take sufficient actions to halt incitement in classroom texts, maps, and domestic media, the US officially condemned Palestinian attempts to delegitimize Israel’s historical links to the Temple Mount Wailing Wall and stressed to PA interlocutors that indirect talks could not ultimately substitute for direct negotiations between both parties on all the key issues beside “settlements”, to include the “status of Jerusalem”, "right of return", borders, and particularly, the validity of Israeli “security concerns” in light of its conflict with Hizballah in 2006, and Hamas's incessant rocket attacks in 2009.

All of these comprehensive issues , are of paramount significance to the success and effectiveness of the Peace Process. Consistent with long-standing warnings that the US would thwart any attempt by the PA to engage the UN in seeking "unilateral concessions", the Obama Administration used its first UN veto, despite the support of the resolution by 222 nations, including the 14 other members of the Security Council.
To date, a weakened PA is incapable of being a reliable "peace partner", The split between the PA and Hamas, and the the substantial gap between the PA's private and public pronouncements, as revealed by the recent PA-Al Jazera leaks, remain key constraints. Nonetheless, the next crucial milestone for the ongoing peace process will be the new Palestinian elections in September, called for by President Abbas. Hamas has rejected this PA challenge, particularly in light of the rising popular resentment against coercive regimes sweeping the Middle East. Hamas fears an election that it would be highly unlikely to win during a period relative stability and economic improvement taking place in the West Bank. After the US veto of the PA initiated settlements resolution, and continuing evidence of the increasing scope of the US-Israeli partnership, including economic, political-military, and technological, as evidenced by STUXNET actions against Iran, Israel will have the confidence to take on increasing risks for peace with the PA. As long as Israel's red lines are not violated, i.e., recognition of Israel as the "homeland of the Jewish people”, and a halt to the continuing "incitement" throughout the Palestinian controlled territories. Other key Israeli-Palestinian negotiation, include dealing with Jerusalem, and substantial limits to the "right of return, as well as adjustments to the post-1967 borders through pre-negotiated 1:1 land swaps.

If these fundamental issues are negotiated directly between both parties, there would be favorable prospects for a resumption of the "Peace Process". There is much work to be done. Nonetheless, we can look forward to yet unknown developments in September, to include the outcome of Palestinian elections, and potential PA attempts to influence domestic and international boycotts, disinvestments, and sanctions against Israel that would most likely fail. At the same time, the sky will not be falling on Israel.

Moreover, the Peace Process is not going to end. In assessing prospects for peace between long-standing adversaries in a very tough region, one needs to be mindful of Ben Gurion's paraphrased statement -- In the Middle East, If you do not believe in miracles, you are not a realist!

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