Thursday, September 08, 2011

Turkey will not stop at Israel

Dan Margalit

I tried to find out on Tuesday whether Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman regrets being so resolutely opposed to the compromise apology suggested by Dr. Yossi Ciehanover after his talks with Turkish representatives. Instead, I received the following response from Lieberman's office: “We are not commenting so as not to fan the flames.” The foreign minister has been struck dumb. That's too bad. Lieberman and Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe (Bogey) Ya'alon are not responsible for the dramatic decline in Turkey's relationship with Israel. This was a strategic and rational decision by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Yet while his motives are rational, his drive and appetite appear uncontrollable. Still, had Lieberman and Ya'alon toned down their opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's apparent willingness to bridge our differences with Ankara, they could have slowed down the decline. In the constantly shifting Middle East, there was hope that the pendulum would have swung back and restored equilibrium.

The Turks did not deserve an apology, yet the compromise wording, validated by the Palmer report, would have been the lesser of two evils. On Tuesday, a government minister told me that Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Intelligence and Atomic Energy Minister Dan Meridor were not the only ones who supported an apology. In fact, the majority of the government might have been for it. But the ministers did not want to personally come out and say so because the broader public were opposed to an apology.

On Tuesday officials also expressed disappointment with the U.S., which had grown close to Turkey and stopped pressuring it on the issue of an apology. Disappointment is uncalled for. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton failed in two capitals, Jerusalem and in Ankara. Both the Israelis and Turks were intractable. The U.S. is in retreat and its client states feel it.

Right now there is no point in appealing to Turkey's better senses, in keeping with the principle, “Do not appease your friend at the height of his anger.” Especially when the Turks aren't even friends at this stage. Erdogan has made the atmosphere extremist. When he speaks, he is harsh, and when he is silent it is even more worrisome. Is he a megalomaniac? A villain? Is he unaccountable for his actions? If so, he is not going to stop with Israel. In fact, Ankara has already threatened Cyprus, which is hoping to mine natural gas from the Mediterranean Sea. What is his limit? Is he itching for a catastrophic escalation? Nobody knows. But the possibility does exist that things could deteriorate all the way down to a war.

It would behoove Israel to act according to that tried and true maxim, “Out of sight, out of mind.” Any Israeli who respects himself and his government should stay away from Turkey unless he has a very specific reason to visit, such as a business deal or family there. We should not stay away as part of some kind of organized boycott, as several strident MKs are suggesting, but rather out of a sense of solidarity that Israelis do not go where we are not wanted. We don't have to vacation in Turkey. There is no hardship in enjoying a nice glass of wine by the sea in Piraeus, Greece.

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