Note: This is a revised and updated version of an interview I gave recently.
http://rubinreports.blogspot.it/2012/12/im-interviewed-on-latest-middle-east.html
--Do you have anything remotely hopeful to say about the trajectory of the Arab Spring today?
Laugh.
Aha! Fishing for optimism. Okay. First, the anti-Islamist opposition in
Egypt and Tunisia has coalesced. There's hope for autonomy for a
moderate Kurdish area in Syria. And more people in the West have woken
up to the situation and the danger. That's about it for optimism about
the region. I am far more optimistic about Israel's strategic situation
but that's another issue.
Seriously,
though, in Egypt and Tunisia there is a battle and the Islamists face
serious opposition. The issue is not to get bound up in the details of
the demonstrations but to ask what actual impact this will have. The
Islamist timetable for fundamentally transforming their countries is
going to be slower though there's no reason to believe the effort will
stop, much less be reversed. Nor will the West rally to the opposition's
support. The moderate democratic forces are very much alone, just as
they are in Iran and to a very real extent in Syria, too.
As for Syria, 2013 is probably going to be the year of a rebel victory, even though they might not control the entire country until 2014. So what kind of government is going to rule Syria? It's an open question but the Muslim Brotherhood is the best bet.
As for Syria, 2013 is probably going to be the year of a rebel victory, even though they might not control the entire country until 2014. So what kind of government is going to rule Syria? It's an open question but the Muslim Brotherhood is the best bet.
And the Obama Administration, which is still in office, has not changed any of its basic positions on these issues.
--Should the U.S. have some bottom lines to try to influence the upcoming constitutional referendum in Egypt?
Shrug.
The Constitution will pass. The U.S. government won't say a word of
criticism or do anything. Thus, the United States has no influence on
the referendum. What will happen as the Brotherhood will continue to
intimidate the courts and the Egyptian president rules by decree? Will
the White House seriously condition aid on the treatment of women and
Christians? .Obama is doing the absolute minimum to criticize the new
regime which is, let's face it, now a U.S. client.
--Is there anything we or anyone else the United States can do to help influence things in Egypt?
--Is there anything we or anyone else the United States can do to help influence things in Egypt?
There's a lot but nothing will be done. It's a matter of the Obama Administration's ideology and policies.
--Is Syria going to use chemical weapons? The U.S. says we’ll take action if they do. What could that look like?
--Is Syria going to use chemical weapons? The U.S. says we’ll take action if they do. What could that look like?
I
think that the rebels will capture Aleppo within 3-4 months and
Damascus some time in 2013. Then the regime will retreat to the
northwest, the world will recognize a rebel regime as ruling the
country, and there will be a bloodbath. Expect the Obama Administration
to take little or no action. Whether or not the regime uses chemical
weapons on a few occasions won't help it and would probably hasten its
fall.
--What happens when Assad goes, one way or another?
--What happens when Assad goes, one way or another?
It's
very
complex because there are so many players: Sunnis, Alawites,
Christians, and Druze; Kurds; Brotherhood people, Salafists of many
different groups, professional soldiers, warlords, and liberals. A lot
of the powerbrokers are local.
Experience
generally shows us that the winner is the side that is the best-armed,
most organized, knows what it thinks and wants, and perhaps has the most
international backing. That's the Brotherhood.
--It was a brutal November between Israel and Palestinians – how long is the ceasefire likely to hold?
--It was a brutal November between Israel and Palestinians – how long is the ceasefire likely to hold?
Hamas
will escalate at some point in the future and Israel will wait as long
as possible to respond. The fact that Egypt doesn't want another
confrontation will postpone that day from, say, six months to three
years. We're probably talking about two to three years for anything big
but of course Hamas will attack on a lower level. It's main incentive,
of course, is that it knows ultimately the world will protect it from
total defeat by Israel. We've actually reached the point, as shown by
the last five years, when a repressive terrorist group is kept
in power by Western democratic states backing that status quo.
Are the Palestinians emboldened by its change in U.N. status? What longterm effect does that vote have?
Are the Palestinians emboldened by its change in U.N. status? What longterm effect does that vote have?
It's
the end of any hope for a peace process. Why should the Palestinians
negotiate when they believe they can get whatever they want from the
international community? Why should Israel make agreements or
concessions when it knows it will get nothing and the world will
abrogate the other side's obligations?
Also, with the UN General Assembly decision on granting Palestine non-member state status, the Palestinian leadership will rush to claim any Israeli counter-attack is an assault on a sovereign state, and there are those who would buy that argument.
Also, with the UN General Assembly decision on granting Palestine non-member state status, the Palestinian leadership will rush to claim any Israeli counter-attack is an assault on a sovereign state, and there are those who would buy that argument.
One
of the most amazing things is that this decision is so destructive and
there is no awareness of this fact in Western governments and so little
in the mass media. I think one reason why so many countries voted for
this proposal, I think, is they said
that it would make the Palestinians happy and do no harm. We are faced
with a conflict without diplomatic resolution for this entire
generation, say 30 to 50 years.
What worries you most in the Mideast? In the world?
What worries you most in the Mideast? In the world?
In
the Middle East, the effect of a radical regime in the most important
Arabic-speaking country, Egypt, and in the world the fact that not only
is the West generally blind to the threats but its governments are
actually furthering the danger.
If you could offer President Obama any advice for his second term, what might it be?
If you could offer President Obama any advice for his second term, what might it be?
Revolutionary
Islamist groups are not America's friends. Form and lead a broad
alliance of forces against them. It is not too late. Otherwise, you are
creating a Middle East situation of war, dictatorship, and the utmost
damage to U.S. interests.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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