Sometimes it happens that a
project -- writing/activist -- claims a good portion of my time, so that
there is less possibility for posting. That's the situation in which I find
myself now, with no regrets. For it is a very meaningful project -- which
will come clear in due course -- that I'm working on. My postings, though
not absent, are a bit less frequent...
~~~~~~~~~~
Inside a hurricane, with its
fury of wind and rain, there is a calm center. Right now it feels a bit as
if Israel is at the heart of such a hurricane. Here, life is normal. We
are getting the blessing of rain. We are lighting our candles and
celebrating Chanukah. Children are off from school and there are diverse
activities doing.
And then there's the election
campaign I don't know if I'd exactly call that calm. But it is totally
normal.
~~~~~~~~~~
But around us, there are places
that are moving from awful to more horrible. Prime among these are Syria
and Egypt -- violence-ridden places on the verge of collapse, each in its own
way.
Syria's situation has been
horrendous for a long time now. President Bashar al-Assad has less than no
concern for the lives of his people and the figure of those his regime has
killed is way beyond 40,000 at this point. As he inches towards loss
of control of the country, and he feels more desperate, his measures will grow
more extreme.
Assad has one of the largest
caches of weapons of mass destruction in the world, and this has generated
concern for some time -- lest he use these lethal weapons against the rebels in
his country. Or that he fall from power
and terrorists seize this material.
Monitoring of the situation is
being done by Israel and by the US. It was known when Assad moved the
weapons to various locations around the country, and when there was mixing
of various ingredients necessary for preparing a gas.
Serious warnings have come from
the governments both of the US and Israel regarding his use of this stuff on his
own people. There is no
deep concern that Assad himself intends to use these weapons against Israel, but
there are serious ramifications none-the-less. I do believe that if the
situation warranted it, troops would be sent into Syria to prevent a WMD
disaster.
~~~~~~~~~~
Now, today, there are reports --
coming from the US and NATO -- that the Syrian government, in what has
been interpreted as a sign of desperation, yesterday fired six scud rockets
at the Sheikh Suleiman base north of Aleppo. Aleppo itself is on the verge
of being lost, and this base has been seized by the Islamist
al-Nusra Front, associated with al-Qaeda.
There are varying reports as to
whether the end is truly at hand for Assad. For the first time, the Russians,
who have been his supporters, are conceding that he may be about to fall -- and
are preparing to move nationals out of Syria. But I've seen at least one report
that says that Assad's military is still the strongest force in the country, and
that the Alawite minority -- which retains control of part of the country --
will fight for all it is worth to keep from going down. What is more, Iran
is still able to get into the Damascus airport to augment Syrian weapons.
If Assad does go down, it will not
be until he has unleashed a paroxysm of further killing.
~~~~~~~~~~
The key question, if
and when Assad falls, is which group would replace his regime.
In an interview with ABC News,
President Obama has said that the US intends to formally recognize a
Syrian opposition coalition as the de facto administration of regions under
rebel control:
"We've made a decision that the
Syrian Opposition Coalition is now inclusive enough, is reflective and
representative enough of the Syrian population, that we consider them the
legitimate representative of the Syrian people in opposition to the Assad
regime."
This is a group that has already
been recognized by Britain and France, and it seems clear that Obama, after
having been badly burned is Libya, is stepping very carefully here.
In what has to be the
understatement of the week, the president commented that:
"Not everybody who is participating on the ground in fighting Assad are
people that we are comfortable with. There are some who I think have
adopted an extremist agenda, an anti-US agenda."
He thinks?
The coalition Obama will recognize may be "inclusive," but that means it includes radical rebel forces, who will do all in their power to fight their way into positions of control.
No talk of arming the rebels.
~~~~~~~~~~
In Egypt, confronting growing violence, President Morsi is fighting for his political life. A referendum on a new constitution that he is promoting will be held in two parts, this Saturday and next. The opposition is threatening blood, and the Carter Center says it will not be monitoring the voting.
See an analysis by Zvi Mazel, former Israeli ambassador to Egypt:
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=295722
~~~~~~~~~~
The Jerusalem Post held a Diplomatic Conference in Herzliya yesterday, at which Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman spoke:
He thinks?
The coalition Obama will recognize may be "inclusive," but that means it includes radical rebel forces, who will do all in their power to fight their way into positions of control.
No talk of arming the rebels.
~~~~~~~~~~
In Egypt, confronting growing violence, President Morsi is fighting for his political life. A referendum on a new constitution that he is promoting will be held in two parts, this Saturday and next. The opposition is threatening blood, and the Carter Center says it will not be monitoring the voting.
See an analysis by Zvi Mazel, former Israeli ambassador to Egypt:
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=295722
~~~~~~~~~~
The Jerusalem Post held a Diplomatic Conference in Herzliya yesterday, at which Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman spoke:
"I am compelled to tell the
truth," he told the room filled with diplomats. "My sense is that all the
promises and commitments to Israel's security are mere words. When push
comes to shove, many key leaders would be willing to sacrifice Israel without
batting an eyelid in order to appease the radical Islamic militants and ensure
quiet for themselves."
Indeed...
Although it should be pointed out
that, contrary to a commonly held belief, appeasing Islamists does not
"ensure quiet."
~~~~~~~~~~
Lieberman may have been
specifically addressing a report of what happened at the EU foreign
ministers meeting. Accord to the Times of Israel:
"Four European Union member states
[Denmark, Finland, Portugal and
Ireland] reportedly opposed an official condemnation of Hamas
leader Khaled Mashaal’s incitement-filled speech last weekend, leading to harsh
responses from Israeli leaders that Europe was being one-sided."
These states wanted the EU to
condemn only Israel, for plans to build in E1. "In the end, the statement
included a brief rebuke of Hamas’s call for Israel’s destruction, after an
11th-hour intervention by Germany and the Czech Republic."
~~~~~~~~~~
Dan Shapiro, US Ambassador to
Israel, also spoke at the Diplomatic Conference. What he said
is that changes in Judea and Samaria that have taken place since 1967 (by
which he means settlements) will have to be addressed via land swaps between the
parties.
Seems as if he's recognizing
Israel's claim to land beyond the Green Line where Jewish communities have been
established? Look again:
"Land swaps" is code for: the
Palestinian Arabs have a claim to everything past the Green Line, but if there
are Jewish communities there that Israel wants to retain, then Israel must give
the Arabs an equivalent amount of land inside the Green Line.
"Nobody else from the outside can
draw that map, and that is why we need to get those negotiations
going."
Still talking
"negotiations." This is Obama policy.
In fact, Shapiro says the PA is
not prepared to come to the table now, but, "As soon as the parties are ready,
President Obama is ready to be a full partner."
Isn't that nice. He just shouldn't
hold his breath.
~~~~~~~~~~
Khaled Abu Toameh has just done a
piece on the growing radicalism of Palestinian Arabs (emphasis
added):
"When Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas returned from New York to Ramallah and told the
Palestinians that he obtained UN recognition of a Palestinian state within the
pre-1967 lines -- namely, the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem -- fewer
than 5,000 Palestinians, many of them civil servants who receive their salaries
from the Palestinian Authority government, turned out to greet him in
Ramallah.
"When Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal
came last week to the Gaza Strip and told Palestinians that armed struggle and
jihad were the only way to liberate all Palestine, 'from the river to the sea,'
and that there was no room for the Zionists in Palestine because the country
belonged only to Muslim and Arabs, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians showed
up to welcome Mashaal and voice support for his plan to eliminate Israel and
replace it with an Islamic state.
"Even many Palestinians in the West Bank expressed support for Mashaal, especially when he said that the Palestinians would never 'give up one inch of Palestine.'
"...If anything, the widespread support for Hamas's position is a sign of how much the Palestinians have been radicalized over the past few decades.
"A Palestinian leader who talks about a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem is less popular than one who talks about 'liberating Haifa, Jaffa, Beersheba and Safed.'"
"Even many Palestinians in the West Bank expressed support for Mashaal, especially when he said that the Palestinians would never 'give up one inch of Palestine.'
"...If anything, the widespread support for Hamas's position is a sign of how much the Palestinians have been radicalized over the past few decades.
"A Palestinian leader who talks about a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem is less popular than one who talks about 'liberating Haifa, Jaffa, Beersheba and Safed.'"
What was it that Ambassador
Shapiro said, about a land swap and coming to the negotiating
table?
~~~~~~~~~~
Still reading and relying up the
NYTimes ? Please see a report by CAMERA on the bias against Israel
found in the Times.
"A disproportionate, continuous, embedded indictment of Israel dominates
both news and commentary sections. Israeli views are downplayed while
Palestinian perspectives, especially criticism of Israel, are amplified and even
promoted. The net effect is an overarching message, woven into the fabric of the
coverage, of Israeli fault and responsibility for the conflict.
"The Times presents criticism of Israel more than twice as often as it does criticism of the Palestinians. It de-emphasizes Palestinian aggression and incitement, while headlining Israeli defensive strikes. When other media outlets emulate the Times, the effect of the distortion is greatly magnified."
~~~~~~~~~~
Closing with some good news:
"With 40 days to go before the Knesset elections, a new
Israel Hayom poll shows that the right-wing bloc in the Knesset is likely to
have an easy task of maintaining its governing coalition after the Jan. 22
elections."
The left, I should mention, is in serious disarray.
~~~~~~~~~~
©
Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be
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