One
of the reasons why the Middle East situation is less fearsome than it
might seem is that the radicals and terrorists are not united at all but
battle among themselves for tactical, doctrinal, ethnic, and
ambition-related reasons.
Despite their daily, bloodthirsty howls for Israel’s destruction, for example, three groups are at odds:
--The
Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt wants to revolutionize the Middle
East but is putting the priority on entrenching its power in Egypt
itself, including dealing with economic and internal security problems.
One of its difficulties is a terrorist insurgency in the Sinai
Peninsula. While this includes cross-border attacks on Israel it also
involves assaults on Egyptian soldiers, police stations, and other
facilities.
--The
Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip wants to revolutionize the Middle East
and puts a high priority on genocide against Israel. But it has to
balance backing Salafist and even al-Qaida groups with controlling the
timing of its wars on Israel.
--The
Salafist groups in the Gaza Strip and Sinai want to attack and wipe out
Israel but some of them also want to overthrow the Brotherhood and
institute an even more extremist regime in Egypt.
So
here is the problem. What happens when Palestinian Salafist groups,
including supporters of al-Qaida, want to attack Israel through Egyptian
territory or to work with Egyptian Salafist groups to attack Egyptian
soldiers or policemen?
Answer: Egypt doesn’t like it.
And
Egypt blames Hamas. Why are you helping these people? Or why aren’t you
suppressing them? We will let people attack Israel from our territory
if and when we want to do so. And, yes, our intelligence does have
evidence you are helping these anti-Egyptian forces.
For
example, we saw that you weren’t interfering with the smuggling of
material to make phony Egyptian army uniforms. Salafists can use these
to attack Israel disguised as Egyptian soldiers, thus getting us into a
shooting confrontation with Israel while we are trying to borrow money
and keep the Americans happy. Or they can even pretend to be our men and
kill Egyptians.
So why should we help you when you are helping those who attack us?
The
latest event was the firing of two rockets from Egyptian territory
against Eilat on April 17. A global jihad-affiliated network in the Gaza
Strip calling itself the Shura Council of the Jihad Fighters of the
Environs of Jerusalem claimed responsibility. Their claimed motive was
interesting: to protest two Palestinians killed in Tulkarm in a violent
confrontation with Israeli security forces.
In other words, Palestinian Islamists are carrying out their war with Israel using Egyptian territory without permission.
The group’s statement also
made the remarkable demand that “the sane members of Hamas” pressure
the Hamas government in Gaza to stop trying to arrest its men.
So this is the chain of events:
Hamas
must decide whether to allow al-Qaida affiliated or similar groups
attack Israel from Egyptian soil. Even if it doesn’t mind their
attacking Israel from Gaza, it needs to keep the Egyptians happy so that
the Egypt-Gaza border is kept open for goods, including weapons.
But some Hamas men want instant all-out jihad against Israel.
Hamas
must also decide whether to restrain these same groups from waging an
Islamist revolution against the Islamist regime in Cairo. Again, perhaps
some Hamas gunmen or officials think the Muslim Brotherhood isn’t going
fast enough to turn Egypt into a Sharia state. That’s hard to believe,
though. Perhaps more likely these Hamas officials are incompetent,
bribed, or blackmailed.
At
any rate, even though it was completely avoidable, then, the Egyptian
Muslim Brotherhood regime is very angry at the Hamas Muslim Brotherhood
regime. The relationship has been damaged and the Egyptians’ willingness
to back up Hamas has been reduced.
Moreover,
Israel has given Egypt permission--required under the peace treaty--to
move troops into the eastern Sinai to combat the terrorists. Let's stop
for a moment and realize that when Israel (which the Muslim Brotherhood
wants to wipe off the map) cooperates with a radical Islamist regime in
Egypt (run by the Brotherhood) to send soldiers to fight radical
Islamist terrorists (who want to wipe out Israel and also attack Egypt)
you know you are in the Middle East. And you know that the revolutionary
Islamists are making major strategic mistakes.
Parallel
situations—albeit based on the very intense Sunni-Shia Islamist
battle—are creating splits in Lebanon and increased Sunni Muslim
antagonism against Hizballah and Iran generally because the latter back
the current regime in Syria. Some time ago, Egypt also arrested a number
of alleged Hizballah agents in Cairo accusing that group of planning
attacks on Egypt. And for more on the Sunni-Shia battle among Islamists see here.
A
couple of years ago I wrote an article saying that while the Egyptian
Muslim Brotherhood hated al-Qaida and saw it as a competitor, the two
groups had a lot of parallel ideas. Of course, they don’t agree on a
strategy of direct attacks on the United States. The official
Brotherhood website, partly misreading my point, did a very polite
critique of my article trying to distance itself from al-Qaida.
The
response was restrained back then since it was on the English-language
propaganda site trying to convince the West that the Brotherhood was
moderate. But when you are trying to put down the non-Islamist
opposition and land an almost $6 billion IMF loan it’s easy to throw out
a few soothing words. Al-Qaida attacks on Egypt and Israel make that
game more difficult.
In
Egypt now there are four Islamist parties: Brotherhood, Salafist
willing to work with the Brotherhood, Salafist critical that the
Brotherhood isn't going fast enough, "moderate" Islamists. Of course,
all of them are pushing in the same direction and will cooperate much of
the time. A lot of the debate is simply over how fast to convert Egypt
into a radical, repressive Sharia state. But at least it makes their
task harder.
All
of these maneuvers are important and undercut the Islamist
revolutionary movement. With Western policy being so confused,
ineffective, and ignorant the divisions among enemies may be the best
thing going.
If you are interested in reading more about Egypt and radical Islamist movements, you're welcome to read my book Islamic Fundamentalists in Egyptian Politics online or download it for free.
If you are interested in reading more about the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, you're welcome to read my book The Arab States and the Palestine Conflict online or download it for free.
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--------------------
Barry
Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs
(GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International
Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His next
book, Nazis, Islamists and the Making of the Modern Middle East,
written with Wolfgang G. Schwanitz, will be published by Yale University
Press in January 2014. His latest book is Israel: An Introduction, also published by Yale. Thirteen of his books can be read and downloaded for free at the website of the GLORIA Center including The Arab States and the Palestine Conflict, The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East and The Truth About Syria. His blog is Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.
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