Hasan
Rowhani, the only reformist candidate allowed in Iran’s presidential
election, has won a landslide victory. There won’t even need to be a
second, run-off round since he won over 50 percent of the vote.
It
would be easy to subject this to instant analysis, for example saying
that it is so that the Tehran regime could claim moderation and thus
stall for time to build nuclear weapons, or that the masses simply
overwhelmed the regime so that his victory was undeniable. Perhaps the
regime figured that a second straight election stolen by the regime from
the reformists--the previous one was in
2009--would set off a revolt.
The
scoops largely belong to the New York Times Thomas Erdbrink who
reported that Tehran has turned into a massive street celebration. The
police and militia vigilantes stayed off the streets where pop songs
ruled instead of regime dress standards. People chanted, Erdbrink
tweeted, “We are celebrating that we are free after 8 years of
Ahmadinejad."
Since
supreme guide Ali Khamenei congratulated Rowhani it appears that the
rulers have accepted his victory and he will not be denied office.
No matter what the regime's intentions or acceptance, the outcome will be this:
1. Rowhani will have little power. Remember that a moderate already served
eight years as president and accomplished nothing.
2. A lot of Iranians will be very happy.
3.
There will be many analysts and politicians and government officials
saying that since Iran has now turned in a moderate direction, it must
be given a chance to show whether this is true.
4.
Therefore, the Obama Administration will spend the rest of 2013 in
exploratory negotiations as Iran moves forward toward nuclear weapons.
People will talk about gestures toward Iran like reducing sanctions and
certainly not increasing them. Russia, Turkey, and China will continue
to get waivers on sanctions.
5. This will have no effect on U.S. policy in Syria, giving weapons to
rebels.
Many
analysts--including myself--cynically suggested that the election would
be once again fixed so a regime candidate would win. In retrospect, of
course, this was wrong. In hindsight, perhaps it was a tip-off (if the
regime wanted Rowhani to win--that it let in several regime supporters
who took votes from each other. In the end, though, it didn't matter.
The key decision was to allow an honest tally of votes.
At
any rate, while the Iran regime has not changed policy really, many
will think it has done so. If the regime really wanted to change its
aggressive and nuclear-oriented policy, it would have put into power a
regime supporter who would announce a new set of positions. At any rate,
all of these questions about Iranian politics and foreign policy will
have to be seriously evaluated now.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
Forthcoming Book: Nazis, Islamists, and the Making of the Modern Middle East (Yale University Press)
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies, http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ftur20#.UZs4pLUwdqU
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