Obama Administration Middle East Policy: See What I've Been Trying to Tell You?

Barry Rubin

A self-interview First, I want to apologize that I have often used intemperate language to describe U.S. policy and the people making it in the last 4.5 years. Perhaps I have put off some of you who would otherwise have been persuaded that something is very wrong. Therefore, I have tried to do another version of this approach. Remember, I'm not responsible for the way the questions are phrased here. Q: How can the United States become the ally of the Muslim Brotherhood, a one-time Nazi collaborator which has never changed its political line since; a movement to impose Sharia states and restore the caliphate; a movement that is genocidal against Jews, and is also anti-Christian, anti-Shia (all Shia, not just the Islamists), wants to kill gays and make women into second-class citizens? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q: How can the United States—the very same politicians—oppose support for the pro-American Nicaraguan Contras against the pro-Communist Sandinistas but now support with arms the ant-American Syrian rebels—Brotherhood and worse? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q: How can the U.S. government stand by passively and watch four American officials be murdered by al-Qaida in Libya? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q: How can the U.S. government pretend that the Israel-Palestinian peace process is going to work when the Palestinians refuse to negotiate for a dozen years, and the Palestinian Authority, because of Hamas ruling Gaza, doesn’t even represent the Palestinians? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q: How can the U.S. government support the Mursi Egyptian regime—anti-American and wanting to install Sharia in a strict version—yet refuse to back the pro-American Mubarak regime? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q: How can the U.S. government allow internal influences on itself by the Muslim Brotherhood? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q: How can the U.S. government censor what the military and FBI teaches the people on the front lines of the counterterrorist struggle so that they don’t even understand political Islamism? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q: How can Israel be constantly criticized for intransigence despite the risks and concessions it has taken during the last 21 years while the Palestinian Authority is portrayed as moderate and flexible when it won’t even talk and continues to glorify terrorists and almost always reject Israel’s existence? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this?  Q: How can the Western media portray the new Iranian president as a moderate when he has always been a mainstream regime security official and hasn’t even done anything yet? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Next thing you know he’ll get the Nobel Peace Prize without having done anything. Q: How can the U.S. government ignore a dozen years' record of an Islamizing regime in Turkey, the destruction of democratic institutions, and now the violent suppression of peaceful demonstrations? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q; How is anti-Israel sentiment reaching record heights in the American elite without any real reaction from the American Jewish community and support for the actual policies—though not the cultural-ideological manifestations—by American Jewish politicians? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q: How can U.S. policy negotiate with the Taliban when anyone should see that this will signal the Afghan government that it cannot trust Washington and there's also that little matter of September 11? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? Q: How can the U.S. government and media constantly criticize Israel as intransigent when the Palestinian Authority has refused to negotiate seriously for 12 years while Israel has been ready to talk at any time without preconditions and has repeatedly made concessions to encourage talks? A: Pretty amazing isn’t it? Can Americans really not realize this? [As I finish this article here is the AP headline: "Kerry Heading Home, Eager to Return to Jerusalem." I mean how can you satirize this: OK, says Kerry, should I focus on Egypt, Syria, or whether Palestinian terrorists with blood on their hands be released and how many months Israel can't build apartment houses to get the Palestinian Authority back to the negotiating table after 13 years of refusal? Oops, sorry, I got carried away.  It won't happen again.] Q: Well, don’t you have anything else to say? A: Sure. Look, I don’t have any problem understanding why this is U.S. policy. Some people tell me that while my ideas are good my harsh language prevents serious open-minded others from listening to it. I think the rules have changed. That dissent is kept out of the mass media as much as possible. Why don't I hear what I'm saying with nicer wording? Doesn't the strength of the argument and evidence prevail any more? Isn't the crisis  bad enough to justify urgency and strong warnings? Have'n't my predictions been accurate? If you want take my arguments, change the wording, and explain in a polite way the worst Middle East policy in U.S. history go right ahead. Oh, and remember how many people are dying, being oppressed, and injured because of these policies. What I cannot understand is that about half the American people, and more than half of American Jews who are facing the government that has been more indifferent to U.S. interests, that is signalling a desire to appease enemies and jettison friends, and an indifference to Israel’s security (I mean regional mainly, not so much bilateral) greater than any administration in history, seem as if they don’t realize it after four years of  error. This article is published on PJMedia

Egypt: Demonstrators Denounce U.S.-Muslim Brotherhood Alliance Posted: 02 Jul 2013 07:58 PM PDT Check out these anti-Obama posters in Cairo to understand what's wrong with U.S. policy. The opposition--the people on whose side the United States should be--are livid about their view that the United States is backing the Muslim Brotherhood. Note also how the mass media gave much attention to a few anti-Obama demonstrators in South Africa, who criticized him from the far left, but not hundreds of thousands of moderates from the center. A lot of hostility is focused on the U.S. ambassador, which is typical of Egypt where British ministers were historically--and often accurately--seen as imperial proconsuls.  Morsi said in a speech to supporters: "We have to prove to the world that we are capable of democracy...peacefully we protect the legitimacy...legitimacy is our only guard from future faults....I do not accept anyone saying anything or taking steps against legitimacy; this is completely rejected." Meanwhile millions of opponentschant: Leave!

Second Statement: Army Says It Won't Take Power...Yet Posted: 02 Jul 2013 12:16 PM PDT The Egyptian army says it will not take power after all if its warning of a 48-hour deadline would be ignored by government and opposition. But what will it do? Now the opposition has been given a real expectation that it can prod the army into action by continued demonstration. And the regime can conclude that with the army bluffing it can escalate repression. And the country's economic situation will continue to worsen. And the parliamentary elections are tied up in court disputes, with the country basically having no functioning parliament. In other words, while the army doesn't want to take power what will it do as conditions worsen? And if it does nothing Egypt will eventually  descend into real chaos. So either the army will take over--directly or by appointing a new government (probably the latter)--or the Brotherhood will probably evolve into a dictatorship or the Brotherhood will lose the next election and leave power gracefully (hard to believe). Meanwhile, opposition leaders rejoiced. Tamarod spokesperson Mahmoud Badr welcomed the statement, according to the Egypt Independent:   be “The army responding to the demands of the people crowns our movement,” he said, adding that Tamarod has embodied the will of the Egyptian people to demand early presidential elections.”  Badr added.  “The army statement said our youth are the best in Egypt, opposing a year of what the newspaper called “a year of perceived fascism by the Muslim Brotherhood is ended and the revolution is put back on track.” Mohamed Abdel Aziz, another campaign leader, said: “[President Muhammad] Morsi  is no longer a president, we call on the masses to take to the streets and besiege [the] Qubba and Ettihadiya [presidential] palaces at 5 pm Tuesday.” Today there is no government in Egypt. Here is a list of a few July 2 protests from both sides: Cairo Static protests remain in Tahrir Square, outside the Presidential Palace at Itihadiya and at the Rabaa Al-Adaweya mosque in Nasr City. Further large demonstrations are likely at each of these locations on the evening of 2 July. Further protests are likely in the Moqqatam area of Cairo. On 2 July marches will begin in the early evening in the following areas, Shubra at Khalafawy Square then to Abu Wafya Bridge and Sekket al-Wayli en route to the Presidential Palace Mattariya Square to Ter'et al-Gabal Street to the Presidential Palace Masr W’al Sudan Street to the Presidential Palace Nour Mosque in Abbassiya then to Roxy Square, and then from al-Tahra bridge to Qubba palace. Alexandria Static protests are in place at the Sidi Gaber train station and the Ibrahim mosque. Two anti-regime marches are planned to begin in the Victoria and Kaed Ibrahim areas, heading to Sidi Gaber. Two marches in support of the President are planned, one to begin from the Sidi Bishr Mosque east of the Governorate, the other starting in the Bitash area west of the Governorate. Luxor Jamaa al Islamiya is organizing a march in Luxor beginning at 1900 from Abu Haggag Square around the main streets of the governorate and back to the starting point where they are planning to sit in. Protests are likely in large towns in the Nile Delta, the cities on the Suez Canal and in large towns in Upper Egypt.  Jamaa Islamiya is organizing marches in 11 governorates tonight.