f
Egypt's judicial system, a remnant of British colonialism in the land of
the Nile, decided independently to release Hosni Mubarak from prison,
it deserves applause. And if the judges were acting as the long arm of
Egypt's military government, then the praise should go to Col. Gen.
Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. The release of the elderly and ill former
president was a resounding slap in the face of the Muslim Brotherhood.
After the July 1952
revolution led by a group of Egyptian military officers, King Farouk was
not put on trial or imprisoned. Rather, he was exiled abroad. But after
the January 2011 revolution, the military allowed Mubarak and his sons
to be put on trial and Mubarak did not set foot outside jail until
Thursday.
What led to Mubarak's
release? A renewed spirit among Mubarak supporters who were silent when
he was deposed? A desire by the Egyptian military, ruling the country
with bayonets, to aggravate the struggle with the Muslim Brotherhood?
The Mubarak era marked
three decades of tyranny, but tyranny is customary in Egypt. Mubarak's
trial and imprisonment were inconsistent with Egypt's norms of
governance.
Mohammed Morsi, from
the Muslim Brotherhood, was more violent in suppressing protests than
Mubarak was. Now it is Morsi's turn to sit in prison.
The release of Mubarak
to house arrest will have only a marginal influence on the fiery
confrontation between the military and its opponents. Whoever killed two
Egyptian security personnel this week did not do so because of
Mubarak's imprisonment or release. The decision by the judges to give
Mubarak his freedom back will not serve as fuel for the rise of a
national protest movement.
Mubarak's release does
not overshadow the main point -- the sides in Egypt have passed the
point of no return. The map of the Middle East looks like an ongoing
earthquake. There are momentary shakes in places like Lebanon, from
where rockets were fired into Nahariya and Acre on Thursday. But the
main areas of seismic activity are Syria and Egypt.
The world is watching
indecisively. The Americans are hiding behind the Russian and Chinese
vetoes at the U.N. Security Council to avoid intervening against the use
of chemical weapons by Syrian President Bashar Assad. In Egypt, the
West is cutting off the branch it sits on by coming out against the
Egyptian military in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood. America is blowing
wind into the sails of Islamic radicals.
Of course, a reasonable solution
in Egypt would be for the sides to agree on a compromise. But at the
moment, they are determined to dictate their will and not give up on
their goals. After Mubarak's release, Sissi understands even more that
there are no draws in this contest. If you do not win, you lose. For the
Egyptian military, there will be no better opportunity than now to win,
despite the challenges.
No comments:
Post a Comment