While it is not clear yet how much of the city the terrorists hold, what is clear is that Iraqi government forces collapsed and fled
from the advancing ISIS attackers (“Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham,”
also called Islamic State of Iraq and Levant). The collapse of Iraqi
authority has been underway since Sunday, and the most recent reporting
indicates thousands of local residents are fleeing to escape ISIS.
In conjunction with the persistent ISIS assault on Anbar Province, to the southwest, the attack on Mosul is a geostrategic one. ISIS is, in fact, trying to position itself to eventually take over Iraq, and control the interior nexus between Iraq and Syria.
Mosul isn’t just any city in northern Iraq. It’s the most important hub of government and commerce – and the reason for that is the same reason ISIS wants it. Mosul sits astride the Tigris River, which forms one of two main approach corridors through western Iraq to Baghdad, the other being the Euphrates River. (See maps. Map 2 shows the Euphrates corridor six months ago, from this analysis of the growing ISIS threat.)
Mosul is downstream from the extremely important Mosul Dam, which was
built on a flawed construction premise in the 1980s and is in a
precarious condition.
Central Iraq is heavily dependent on Tigris water, and if the guerrillas can hang onto Mosul, and the access points to the Tigris, they will sit between the river’s main reservoir in Iraq and its customers.
That is the same position they’ve been fighting for in Anbar Province
along the Euphrates. These guys aren’t stupid, and they’re not just
blow-em-up-Allahu-akbar terrorists. They’re executing, slowly but
surely, a pincer move on Baghdad. If ISIS has any hope of establishing
itself on territory, it has to control some water. In arid Iraq, water
and lines of strategic approach are the same thing.
They’re also the lifeblood of civilization. The farmers need water from the two great rivers, and so do the city-dwellers. ISIS doesn’t have to be in charge of doling out the water, at least not at first. The position its leaders aspire to – beyond holding what’s necessary to consolidate a territorial redoubt for themselves – is being able to threaten the water supply. They are very close now to achieving that goal.
I do not assess that ISIS has a plan to literally attack Baghdad any
time soon. For the time being, ISIS wants to hold Baghdad at risk and
be able to extort and snipe at the Maliki government. Subverting
Baghdad itself won’t be feasible until ISIS has established a broader
base in both western Iraq and Syria.
What are ISIS’s chances of success? The way to frame the answer is to recognize that conditions will have to change to defeat ISIS. Iraq can’t do the job by herself. Unless those conditions do change, ISIS has pretty good chances.
But conditions in the region are almost certain to change, as much as they need to, to defeat ISIS. All three of Bashar al-Assad, Tehran’s mullahs, and Russia have reason to intervene to beat back the ISIS insurgency. (There’s a significant presence of Chechens and Dagestanis – bane of Moscow – in the ranks of ISIS. For the security of her entire southern flank, Russia needs to see the ISIS effort crushed.)
With its new inroads into northern Iraq, ISIS is also a game-changer for the Kurds, and for Turkish policy. Somebody is going to end up king of the hill in the battle to defeat ISIS. Whoever it is will be the chief patron of Iraq’s central government.
The Sunnis in Iraq won’t be enamored of simply throwing the door open
to an alliance with Iran as the means of defeating ISIS. Russia, the
Kurds, and the Turks will all be in play as counterweights to excessive
Shia Iranian influence. The Saudis may try to involve themselves as
well, at least by quietly hooking Sunni factions in Iraq up with cash
and outside connections.
The Iraqi situation that America turned over in 2011 will be gone by 2016. What’s developing in its place is less a matter of the 1950s calling, wanting its geopolitics back, than of the 1910s – or perhaps the 1850s – arriving with a moving van. Sic transit Pax Americana.
In conjunction with the persistent ISIS assault on Anbar Province, to the southwest, the attack on Mosul is a geostrategic one. ISIS is, in fact, trying to position itself to eventually take over Iraq, and control the interior nexus between Iraq and Syria.
Mosul isn’t just any city in northern Iraq. It’s the most important hub of government and commerce – and the reason for that is the same reason ISIS wants it. Mosul sits astride the Tigris River, which forms one of two main approach corridors through western Iraq to Baghdad, the other being the Euphrates River. (See maps. Map 2 shows the Euphrates corridor six months ago, from this analysis of the growing ISIS threat.)
Map 1. The Tigris and Euphrates approach corridors — and lifeblood arteries — into central Iraq. (Google map; author annotation)
Central Iraq is heavily dependent on Tigris water, and if the guerrillas can hang onto Mosul, and the access points to the Tigris, they will sit between the river’s main reservoir in Iraq and its customers.
Map 2. ISIS corridor in the Euphrates valley. (Google map; author annotation.)
They’re also the lifeblood of civilization. The farmers need water from the two great rivers, and so do the city-dwellers. ISIS doesn’t have to be in charge of doling out the water, at least not at first. The position its leaders aspire to – beyond holding what’s necessary to consolidate a territorial redoubt for themselves – is being able to threaten the water supply. They are very close now to achieving that goal.
Iraqis flee Mosul this week under ISIS assault. (Social media image)
What are ISIS’s chances of success? The way to frame the answer is to recognize that conditions will have to change to defeat ISIS. Iraq can’t do the job by herself. Unless those conditions do change, ISIS has pretty good chances.
But conditions in the region are almost certain to change, as much as they need to, to defeat ISIS. All three of Bashar al-Assad, Tehran’s mullahs, and Russia have reason to intervene to beat back the ISIS insurgency. (There’s a significant presence of Chechens and Dagestanis – bane of Moscow – in the ranks of ISIS. For the security of her entire southern flank, Russia needs to see the ISIS effort crushed.)
With its new inroads into northern Iraq, ISIS is also a game-changer for the Kurds, and for Turkish policy. Somebody is going to end up king of the hill in the battle to defeat ISIS. Whoever it is will be the chief patron of Iraq’s central government.
Massive scale of Iraqi flight from Mosul. (Image: Twitter, “mohsinani”)
The Iraqi situation that America turned over in 2011 will be gone by 2016. What’s developing in its place is less a matter of the 1950s calling, wanting its geopolitics back, than of the 1910s – or perhaps the 1850s – arriving with a moving van. Sic transit Pax Americana.
ISIS guerrilla terrorists man a new checkpoint in Mosul.
J.E. Dyer is a retired Naval Intelligence officer
who lives in Southern California, blogging as The Optimistic
Conservative for domestic tranquility and world peace. Her articles
have appeared at Hot Air, Commentary’s Contentions, Patheos, The Daily
Caller, The Jewish Press, and The Weekly Standard.
More by J.E. Dyer
Read more at http://libertyunyielding.com/2014/06/10/guerrilla-terrorist-group-isis-seizes-mosul-iraq/#aPoShizKfcGEaejo.99
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