Friday, December 19, 2008

Gifts from Iran and Russia to Lebanon?

David Schenker

Lebanese Minister of Defense Elias Murr just returned from Moscow where he received an offer of 10 MIG 29 “Fulcrum” aircraft. The MIGs would be a significant boost to Lebanon’s depleted and antiquated fixed wing fleet, which today is comprised of some five 1950s-era Hunter Hawker aircraft. . The Russian donation compliments the Iranian offer this past November—in response to Lebanese President Michel Suleiman’s request—to provide weapons to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).

Given Lebanon’s limited defense budget, it’s hard to imagine how the LAF would finance the maintenance of the Russian aircraft. Moreover, if Beirut were to accept the Russian and Iranian offers, there could be significant implications for US relations with the LAF. Since the 2005 Cedar Revolution and the subsequent withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, Washington has provided nearly $500 million in military assistance to Lebanon.

Washington has not yet commented on the prospective Iranian and Russian arms deals. The response from Lebanon’s pro-west March 14th coalition-led Government has so far been non-committal. But the gifts--and the ramifications for US-Lebanese relations--are no doubt appealing to Hizballah and its Lebanese allies.

Also on the Russian front, recent reports suggest that Israel may be in the process of selling Hermes 450 UAVs to Moscow. (As you might recall, a Russian MIG 29 was said to have shot down one of these Israeli-made drones during the invasion of Georgia this past August). According to the Lebanese daily An Nahar, the Israelis aren’t pleased about the potential MIG 29 deal, but the UAV sale appears unrelated to this development. More likely, the Israelis are hoping the UAV sales provide some leverage in helping to convince the Russians to not sell advanced SA-20 anti-aircraft weapons to Iran.

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